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A Way-Too-Early Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection

May 5, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Patriots Roster Projection

Like mock drafts in January, it’s way too early to legitimately project how things will shake out for the Patriots 53-man roster in September, but with so many draft picks once again and so much talent on this roster, it’s a good exercise to figure out where the tightest position battles will be.

Here’s an optimistic (and way too early) stab:

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett: No major surprise here, though if Brady sits the first four games and the Pats have a roster exemption for him, it will at least help avoid a painful cut elsewhere on the roster.

RB (5) D.Lewis, L.Blount, T.Gaffney, J.Develin, B.Bolden: I’m taking the optimistic route here with Gaffney, that he emerges and can take a significant early down role that I hoped would be filled in the draft. Lewis’ recovery timetable is a huge unknown. James White is my shocker cut, but if Lewis is healthy and Gaffney emerges I think White is just too one dimensional and never quite rose to the occasion last year, especially in the AFC Championship. Still, I’d bet they find a way to keep him, but for right here right now he’s hitting the bricks.

WR (6) J.Edelman, D.Amendola, C.Hogan, M.Mitchell, D.Lucien, M.Slater: Tough call here on Keyshawn Martin, who the Pats gave a new deal to last year, but I’d be much more excited to see Lucien sneak into that spot. Otherwise, this group is already looking better than last year. Aaron Dobson is finally put out to pasture.

TE (3) R.Gronkowski, M.Bennett, C.Harbor: The lack of a pure blocking tight end here is a bit concerning, but with Bennett in the mix it changes things because he can do it all. They can use one of their OL for the heavy sets if necessary. Crazy amount of talent at the top and Harbor can move around in a number of roles.

C (2) B.Stork, D.Andrews: Wouldn’t be opposed to trading one of these guys, preferably Andrews because of my Stork crush. Two very good young centers.

G (4) S.Mason, J.Kline, J.Thuney, J.Cooper: Again, taking an optimistic view with Cooper, that he re-finds the magic that made him a first round pick. Pencilling him in to start with Kline. Had to choose between Mason and Jackson, just liked Mason’s athleticism a bit more though his size continues to concern me a bit.

T (4) N.Solder, S.Vollmer, M. Cannon, L.Waddle: Could see Cannon getting cut if Waddle beats him out but for now keeping four for depth sake and I think Scarnecchia likes Cannon more than any of us. Fleming isn’t an easy cut, but a necessary one.

DE (4) R.Ninkovich, J.Sheard, C.Long, T.Flowers: Tough cut here of Geneo Grissom, I just like Flowers more and see him as a better physical fit at defensive end while Grissom seems too much of a tweener. Expecting Flowers to have a significant role even in the 4th string spot.

DT (4) M.Brown, T.Knighton, A.Branch, V.Valentine: Holy shit, look at the beef on this line! Feel good about these four. Brown should be the one DT in pure passing situations. Kearse/Kuhn/Vellano are easy cuts.

ILB(2) S.McClellin, J.Freeny: Thank the Hoodie Freeny has been bumped down the depth chart! McClellin will fit in well when the Pats are in their regular (fka “base”) defense, but also rotate in as he has a similar skill set to Hightower/Collins. Rookie Elandon Roberts isn’t an easy cut, and I’m interested to see if Bostic has anything in the tank now that he should be fully healthy.

OLB(2) J.Collins, D.Hightower: Two badass ninjas.

CB (5) M.Butler, L.Ryan, C.Jones, J.Coleman, D.Roberts: Gotta love this group and I’m very excited to get Roberts back into the mix. Wonder if they could use a vet since it’s such a young group, but all five are tough and can play.

SS (3) P.Chung, J.Richards, B.King: Richards’ role could increase this year with the departure of Tavon Wilson, both on special teams and on defense. King is an excellent special teamer and extremely under the radar for many casual fans. Chung just got extended again and could be in for a Pro Bowl-esque season.

FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, N.Ebner: Very good group, same kind of rotation with McCourty and Harmon as last year.

ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona: Hopefully Cardona doesn’t have any Navy responsibilities to attend to. Otherwise rock solid group.

 

Hardest cuts: James White, Cameron Fleming, Tre Jackson, Geneo Grissom, Kamu Grugier-Hill.

Surprises: Tyler Gaffney, Darryl Roberts, Devin Lucien.
Make your own with Pats Picker and share in the comments if you’re not scared. It’s really, really tough at this point. But of course, injuries will make things a bit easier, unfortunately.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: 53-man roster

Patriots Won’t Overlook LaAdrian Waddle

May 4, 2016 by Mike Dussault

LaAdrian Waddle

In the days since the draft I’ve been lamenting the lack of depth and planning for the future at the tackle position, but as one commenter pointed out yesterday we might be overlooking LaAdrian Waddle.

Waddle was released by the Lions last season after two promising years with the team. He tore an ACL in December of 2014, missed all of training camp in 2015 and just wasn’t the same player when he returned, from MLive.com:

What made Waddle such a unique physical specimen when he came to the Lions was his towering frame, with deceivingly good athleticism for a man that big. His technique wasn’t always perfect, but he was just a hard man to get around.  The knee injury robbed him of that. Even once Waddle was healthy enough to return to the field, he found himself thinking rather than just playing.

The Patriots picked up Waddle and inserted him at left tackle against the Jets in Week 16 after Sebastian Vollmer was injured. He’d play just 37 offensive snaps before injuring his shoulder and didn’t appear again the rest of the season. Despite the limited look at Waddle, the Patriots re-signed him this offseason with a two-year deal.

It’s well-documented how an ACL injury can take a full year to feel completely healed and for the athlete to feel completely comfortable with it. The Lions didn’t give him much benefit of the doubt when he came back in Week 3 last season and wasn’t the same player. Well, in full disclosure Pro Football Focus had him ranked as their worst tackle prior to his release.

Still, you look at Waddle’s scouting report and this is the kind of guy I was craving to add this offseason and it looks like he was sitting under my nose the whole time.

His NFL.com scouting report strengths:

Height and extreme length are prototypical for the tackle position, and his foot quickness when in balance makes it very difficult for even the best sack-masters to get the corner. Thick arms that portend his upper-body strength, and also owns enough flexibility and girth in his lower half to anchor against bull rushes. Occasionally asked to go out to linebackers, shows agility to fit onto the block and uses his long arms to shield them from the play – though he can be out-quicked by second-level defenders and doesn’t always sustain. His strength and quickness helps him as a zone run blocker, as well.

I’ve been wrong to be dismissive of Waddle this offseason in looking at the Pats’ future at tackle. If he can regain the form he had his first two seasons with the Lions, Waddle could be exactly what the Pats need – an athletic swing tackle who can play both sides. He might even be in position to take over the right tackle spot next season. First he must get fully healthy, but the potential is certainly there.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: LaAdrian Waddle

Why Did Patriots Ignore Major Needs at Running Back and Tackle?

May 3, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The major personnel pieces should be in place now for the 2016 Patriots, something I’ve been simmering on for the last couple of days. Most disturbing to me is the two biggest areas I felt needed to be addressed this offseason (running back and offensive tackle) were basically ignored.

Now on the offensive line you’re left with basically one left tackle (Nate Solder) and a shitload of right tackles and interior swing guys. You can’t have starting-caliber backups at every position but going into a season with no one who can legitimately play left tackle behind Solder is scary.

This also means next season they’ll have to choose between giving new contracts to Sebastian Vollmer and/or Marcus Cannon, or acquiring a new player to start at right tackle. Look, if Solder stays healthy, things will be okay. They’re not exactly set for the future and there’s still big question marks surrounding how the right tackle spot will play out, but if the starters stay healthy this is an offensive line capable of winning a Super Bowl.

There is plenty of promise on the interior, where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots try to move Bryan Stork or David Andrews. Luke Joeckel, who could be available for trade, could make a lot of sense. But otherwise it’s impossible to see how the competition will play out this summer. Jonathan Cooper is probably the most talented of all the guards and there are plenty of pundits who think Joe Thuney has a lot to offer as well.

How will those two new guys compare to what we thought was a young and promising trio in Josh Kline, Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason last season? That’s at least four starter-quality players for two spots. Again, one of those could be trade bait, but I’m not sure any of them are all that appealing to an outside team in the kind of way Logan Mankins was.

Counting on the Return of Superman (Dion Lewis)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdZJk1xtU00

At running back the Pats will now enter camp with just three vets and one undrafted rookie who aren’t coming off a season-ending injury, and none of those healthy guys — Brandon Bolden, James White and Donald Brown — strike much fear in anyone out there. So what the running back position comes down to at this point is the full healthy return of Dion Lewis, who must also recapture his magical seven-plus games in 2015, when he came out of nowhere to suddenly look like Barry Sanders.

If Lewis is back to that form, it will also help LeGarrette Blount immensely in loosening up a defense and setting them up for their hammer/finisher. But as we saw last season, once the Pats lost Lewis things started to unravel on offense. Ideally I wanted to add another rookie pounder to this group. Someone who could take the early carries and loosen up the defense, while taking the heat off of Lewis and Blount.

James White had a couple flashes last season after Lewis went down, but I remain on the fence about him in the long term. And rookie DJ Foster, who played slot receiver last season, is more in the mold of a receiving back than a tough yardage grinder.

Maybe everyone at tackle and running back come back healthy and stay healthy all season and my fears will be unfounded. But if they don’t, these are critical areas that put immense pressure on Tom Brady and the passing game. The Patriots offense in the AFC Championship was one-dimensional and it nearly got Brady killed. That was my biggest takeaway from last season, yet the Patriots essentially stood pat this offseason at both of the positions where attrition caught up to them.

It’s hard not to overreact right now, but there’s still four months until the season starts. New players could still be added or familiar players could emerge as Dion Lewis did meteorically last season. Maybe Donald Brown can re-find the magic that made him a first round pick, or Tyler Gaffney finally stays healthy. A lot can happen, good or bad. Until the pads come on and we know for sure how everyone’s recovery went and how things fit together with the 2016 Pats you can’t panic.

Still, these are clearly the two areas to focus on as potential weak spots on the Patriots roster.

 

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: dion lewis, legarrette blount, marcus cannon, nate solder, sebastian vollmer

Patriots 2016 Draft Wrap

May 1, 2016 by Mike Dussault

My favorite time of the draft season is here! No longer are we looking at hundreds of players who might possibly, but probably not, end up on the Patriots. Nope, now we know who the Pats have and can dive in on those players and how they fit.

This was my worst draft performance of my six seasons putting together a big board and mock drafting. Cyrus Jones was the only player I had on my 50 prospect big board and for the first time, I got zero guys in my mock draft. However I don’t think I was alone. This draft seemed especially filled with lesser-discussed players.

Really, by the end, I think almost all Pats draft pundits (except Mike Reiss, who was dead on with a couple of the “who’s that??” guys) were all targeting the same guys and thus we were all way off. But none of that really matters so let’s jump in and take a big picture look at what the Pats did over the last three days.

The headline for me is that they didn’t take a running back. I thought of all the positions of need, running back was the one that they had to take. So of course they didn’t touch any of the guys that we connected them to, even when they were right there for the taking. Worst of all, many of those guys went to direct rivals, like Devontae Booker to the Broncos, Jonathan Williams to the Bills and Kenneth Dixon to the Ravens.

So now it looks like Tyler Gaffney and Donald Brown must show something because entering the season with only Dion Lewis, James White and LeGarrette Blount as backs who can make an impact is scary. My priority this offseason was to re-make the running back position and the Pats have barely touched it.

Of course, if Dion Lewis returns and stays healthy they’ll be fine. But that’s a big if, and it’s hard to count on a player who, aside from an electric start to 2015, hasn’t done much else.

The other big area of need I felt had to be addressed was offensive tackle, where they had to plan for 2017. We don’t know for sure if it was addressed but it would seem that it wasn’t. The question mark is Joe Thuney who has played every position on the line but generally, due to his size, would seem a better fit inside.

Bill Belichick pointed out in his press conference that there were similar questions with Matt Light‘s size and he worked out fine at left tackle, but if Thuney does end up inside the Pats have a log jam of guards and centers and will likely have to cut a player or two that played significant snaps for them last year, while tackle depth remains thin.

Outside of those two concerns, there’s still plenty to love about the players the Pats selected.

I’m most excited about Cyrus Jones and Malcolm Mitchell. In watching their film, it’s clear they fit what the Patriots do extremely well. I wouldn’t say Jones is just a slot corner, though that’s probably where he will start. He’s a smart, quick man-coverage player who has the tenacity to play against bigger receivers. And his punt return vision is unique and exciting.

Watch Mitchell’s film and you’ll see him running many of the same routes we saw out of Brandon LaFell last season — outside comebacks, digs, etc. It’s clear that he’s already done a lot of what the Patriots ask of their primary X receiver and he should combine with Chris Hogan to give the Pats two new outside options that should take some heat off of the middle of the field. Aaron Dobson has a tough road ahead to make the roster with these two in the mix.

The final four picks were all interesting flyers — S/LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB Elandon Roberts, G Ted Karras and WR Devin Lucian (who seems like a poor man’s version of everyone’s favorite Patriots prospect Sterling Shepard). Karras was the one player who was on my radar early in the process, but of course I discounted him because I thought we were so stacked at guard. But he certainly fits the mold of our favorite kind of maulers.

I’ve really enjoyed getting to know quarterback Jacoby Brissett too. Yes, I still like Jimmy Garoppolo, and we think Brady still has a few years left, but injuries can derail anyone in the blink of an eye. Having two young promising quarterbacks is a huge bonus and the Pats are smart to keep the pipeline strong should anything unforeseen happen to Brady.

Brissett is a lot of fun to watch with sneaky athleticism that doesn’t jump off the screen, only makes him seemingly impossible to tackle in the open field, with subtle moves that always seem to pick up first downs. He has good touch in the short passing game and processes defenses, knowing where to go with the ball. It will be fun to watch him and Garoppolo this summer. Plus he’s extremely tough to bring down, showing good playing strength.

Another draft has come and gone. I certainly feel excited that Jones and Mitchell will contribute to the 2016 team, but as for the rest it’s going to be a process to see who can do what. My concerns about lacking an early-down pounder at running back and having the same tackle depth that killed us last year are real, but of course, there could still be moves to come before the season-opener. We’ll just have to trust the process until then.

But let’s remember, at the top, this is one of the best rosters in the NFL and if they aren’t ravished by injuries, especially in a couple key spots, they certainly have the talent to once again make a Super Bowl run.

Here’s the current depth chart. Thanks to Mike Loyko and James Christensen of NEPatriotsDraft.com for tracking all the undrafted rookie signings.

Screenshot 2016-05-01 at 7.56.58 AM Screenshot 2016-05-01 at 7.56.41 AM

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: cyrus jones, joe thuney, malcolm mitchell

Patriots Draft Malcolm Mitchell

April 30, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots got a much-needed boost at wide receiver in the fourth round of the draft, selecting Malcolm Mitchell out of Georgia.

Mitchell is the latest Patriot to have a remarkable story, learning to read later in life and now sharing his joy for reading with elementary school students through a book he wrote. So yes, off the field Mitchell is already giving back and will fit right in with how much service the Patriots do for the communities around Boston.

On the field Mitchell fits the X-receiver role that Brandon LaFell had occupied the last two seasons. Mitchell is a strong player, and though not a speed burner, has excellent hands and a good amount of experience running the outside routes LaFell ran for the Pats.

Drops are not an issue, he ran a varied route tree and forced 13 missed tackles with the ball in his hands. Part of his limited numbers were Georgia’s run-first approach. Now he goes to the best quarterback in the league and has a chance to see immediate snaps.

PFF’s overview:

Mitchell was once regarded as a top-10 prospect after some impressive work early in his career. That 2012 knee injury really stalled his college career though, and leaves us with a limited amount of work to look at when trying to find out how good he can be at the next level. Ultimately that will push him down the draft board, and might lead to the team that drafts him getting a huge steal.

So much is said about getting a “deep threat” but stretching the field matters both vertically and horizontally, and Mitchell can do both. He steps behind Chris Hogan at the X spot and will need some time to assimilate the Patriots’ playbook. Hopefully he can earn Tom Brady‘s trust in camp and start chipping in here and there as the season progresses.

 

 

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: malcolm mitchell

Patriots Day Two Draft Pick Posits

April 30, 2016 by Mike Dussault

I stayed up into the wee hours of the morning last night, watching almost everything I could find on the four newest Patriots. I have to say I generally feel more excited that immediately after the draft. I was really only familiar with Cyrus Jones of all the draftees, so it was a process of discovery, and there’s a lot to like from these players.

You can check out some of the videos over at my media-heavy Tumblr site, PatsPropaganda.net. More will be popping up throughout the day.

Here are some general thoughts as I dove in deeper on the new guys:

Cyrus Jones
  • Size is the knock on him and why everyone is only projecting him to the slot, but I think he’s smart enough and quick enough to cover just about type of receiver.
  • His quote to the media that his teammates joked about him needing his own office with the coaches because he studies so much film is so Patriots.
  • This guy is a weapon as a punt returner and that could be a huge help in cutting down on the wear and tear on Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.
  • He immediately shoots to the top of the slot corner depth chart as I see it.
  • Understands how receivers try to set him up and knows how to counter. Extremely quick in mirroring routes, partly because of his foot speed but also his recognition.
  • Playmaker who is always around the ball.
  • Jones will make this defense better and has all the traits that make him a perfect fit. He plays with some edge and is a sound tackler. Reminds me a bit of the Tyrann Mathieu.
Joe Thuney
  • It’s pronounced “Toon-ey”.
  • Really smart, got multiple degrees as NC State.
  • Played every spot on the line, ending up at left tackle.
  • Really great hip bend. A smooth athlete with loose hips. Not ideal size for tackle, but is athletic enough to play there. Gets good leverage with good technique.
  • Not a mauler, but a technical player who can process the game and has the athletic traits where I think he could beat out Marcus Cannon for the swing tackle role. He is more athletic than Cannon or Fleming.
  • One of the best Pro Football Focus ranked pass blockers, it will be interesting to see what they do if he ends up at guard. Shaq Mason is his mirror image — a great run blocker.
Jacoby Brissett
  • Watched his 2014 game against the #1 ranked Florida State team and he was electric, making plays with both his arm and his feet.
  • Closest pro comparison? Ben Roethlisberger. He’s big and strong and fearless in the face of pressure. This can hurt him too, but he got off a few passes as he was in the clutch, about to be sacked.
  • Not an explosive runner, but an excellent athlete who knows how to make guys miss. Knows when to run and when to stay. Good pocket presence, though in the game I say the offensive line struggled against such a good front as the Seminoles.
  • Good with the short passing game. Can read defenses and knows how to look off throws to set up defenders. With a year or two to develop, Brissett could develop into something very interesting.
Vincent Valentine
  • Of the four picks, Valentine is the one I’m still scratching my head over. I get it from a size perspective, but in the few games I watched of him I didn’t see many flashes.
  • He can hold his ground and if he catches an offensive linemen off-balance he’ll truck them. But many instances I saw where he was pushed out of the way or missed the chance to make a tackle.
  • Personality-wish I got a gentle giant vibe from him, which scares me even more.
  • For those of you who’ve been with the blog since the Shawn “Crazy Legs” Crable days, Valentine is the antithesis of Crazy Legs. He already has the best calves on the team. They’re crazy huge and stand out even on a 320 pound man.
  • If I was scouting calves this guy’d be in the first round, but as a defensive tackle I have yet to see a consistent anything to get me excited.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: cyrus jones, jacoby brissett, joe thuney, vincent valentine

Patriots Draft Jacoby Brissett and Vincent Valentine

April 29, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots wrapped up the second day of the NFL draft by selecting quarterback Jacoby Brissett from NC State and defensive tackle Vincent Valentine out of Nebraska.

Let’s start with Brissett. I didn’t get too in-depth on quarterbacks this year and I knew I should’ve.  It’s just good business to continually invest in the most important position in the game whether they ever play for you or not.

Brissett has the size you want (6’4″, 231 pounds) and the personality for the position. He was behind a shaky offensive line in college and will need some time to develop. That, of course, is what the Patriots can offer.

I’ll be taking a look at plenty of film on Brissett in the coming days and weeks to get an idea of what he can do.

The interesting question now is whether the Pats will need to add a fourth quarterback to potentially back up Jimmy Garoppolo the first four games of the season. Clearly, Brissett isn’t going to be ready for that.

Tom Brady still has a few more years, but the succession plan must be constant and comprehensive, that’s why if you care about the long-term stability of the franchise beyond #12, you should be okay with this pick.

Another Fatty for DT

Vincent Valentine‘s selection answers an interesting question for me — that the Pats don’t really see the value in a three-technique one-gap penetrator defensive tackle anymore after a brief flirtation with them (aka Dominique Easley).  Now they seem fully focused on size and strength above all else at the position. Granted Malcom Brown is especially athletic and a little more stout, but Alan Branch, Terrence Knighton and now Valentine are all tall and (at least) 320-plus.

This is essentially a 2-5 front now, with two space eaters inside freeing up space for five mobile and athletic players to make the plays.

I missed on Valentine because the red flags were injuries and desire questions. I can deal with injuries, but if it’s a guy who doesn’t work hard I usually reject him for the Patriots. Still, Valentine’s a big guy, and big guys who love to bust their ass are rare. Both Knighton and Branch have had issues with that in their careers.

Generally, I think this pick will be regarded as the biggest reach in a night where the Pats will get plenty heat for reaching. But Valentine’s body type clearly has a fit in this defense and it gives the Pats a developmental player to step in for Branch and/or Knighton when their contracts are up in 2017.

Overall, the names mostly weren’t the ones we thought they might be, but the positions (CB, OL, DT, QB) and traits all fit what the Patriots do. There’s always talent drafted up and down every round of the draft, so just because you draft a guy who the consensus ranked lower than where he was taken doesn’t really mean much.

Tom Brady was the 199th pick. If someone took him first overall in 1999 it would’ve been  monumental reach. So who’s to say what a reach is.

Back for more draft fun tomorrow when I bet the Pats take some of the more popular players we all saw as fits.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: jacoby brissett, vincent valentine

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