PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

The A-B-Cs of 2016 Patriots Training Camp

by

Patriots training campMaybe it’s because I just had a kid, maybe it’s because my dog just pooped all over said-kid’s alphabet mat, but I feel like we need to define the ABCs of 2016 New England Patriots camp.

Amendola’s spot in the offense (like all spots) will be an open competition. His cap hit is now as low as can go and he certainly is uber talented going up and getting the ball. But he’s the Pats’ Montgomery Burns out there: a stiff breeze might shatter his hip (I know, tough talk from a guy like me who can’t jog without pulling a hamstring). Anyway, it will be interesting to see him in an open competition with Washington and Martin. Hated the Martin in motion crossing routes last season, but like his potential.

Big Back: we’ve been down this road before, but that might mean it’s really important. Related B’s: Blount, Bolden or Brown, I’m all about the B-B-Backs of the running variety. Bolden is a core-four special teamer and is serviceable in a pinch, also doesn’t fumble the ball, so I think he stays (but maybe we’re now overvaluing special teams contributions), but Brown and Blount seem to be competing for one spot. I’m leaning Blount, but Brown is a talented back who could excel in the right offense. I’d expect Dion Lewis to be the primary back in a rotating backfield, so this may not be as big of a deal as I think it is, but they may decide to bring him along slowly, in which case, it’s a real Big deal.

Also Buy Mike’s preview. It’s $4, it is excellent! Covers the entire roster and, no, I do not have a gun to my head as I say this, it’s really, really GD good.

Competition. Total cheat with such a generic C, but this roster is extremely deep and camp is going to decide a lot of the 53. RB (see: ‘B’), swing tackle, WR, CBs, OG, DT and most especially LB. Special teams participation could be the impetus for a lot of surprising cuts, but I think the Center competition (there’s a C!) is worth watching. Stork vs. Andrews, both are competent, both are good at sight adjustments. Is there one that works best with “il Grappa” (new way better nickname alert!)? Is there one that can play well enough to make the other expendable? I think, yes.

Defensive front: Don’t expect much downward trend from a defense that hovered around the top-10 of DVOA all year. Adding Long with Sheard, Valentine, Brown, Branch and Pot Roast (Will address Nink later) this will be a good front-7. They are a veteran, disciplined front line that will not miss gap assignments. Are they slower on the edges without Chandler Jones? Maybe, in the passing game, but the run D should be stout. Will be interesting to see how teams attack to the outside and how Malcom Brown’s 2nd year leap goes.

Edelman is Elite, that’s it, full stop!

Fans Frustration: Bill Simmons noted (9:56 min. mark) that Brady didn’t thank the diehard fans who backed him during Deflategate, I know he wants to get past it for the team. But fans have been defending the wall for a year and a half, alienating friends and family because, well, because we’re insane. I expect the team to acknowledge this with some TB12 armband on every player’s sleeve or something to at least show the fans how much they and Brady are appreciated. But I’d love a real acknowledgement from Tommy that the NFL screwed the pooch and the fans are the best in the world, because we are. Even if some of us got a little bent out of shape.

Gronk, Manimal. The obvious answer was Garoppolo, but this is 2016 and no one ever goes obvious. I’m sticking with Robert “Danger (to himself and others)” Gronkowski. Bennett’s getting the pub, but we’ve been spoiled by the most productive career for a TE ever to start a career. With health being a key: pencil him in for 65-80 Recs, 1,200 yards, 12 TDs.  Right between the butt cheeks y’all.

Hogan, Chris: An undervalued pick-up, who will appear overrated until the offense is churning behind TB-12 (wk. 6 or 7). Hogan is a bigger version of Edelman and like Edelman, he has position versatility: he can play the X on the outside or the Z in the slot. This receiving corp is extremely interesting with Edelman, Amendola, Hogan, Martin, Bennett and Gronk who can all play multiple spots. It’s possible Hogan crowds out Amendola and finds room on the roster for Washington or Martin. I hope that the Hogan drops don’t prevent he and the QBs from developing chemistry.

Interior Lineman: A big part of the problem last year was tackle play, but with the two starters back, the interior will be an area to watch. Kline, Jackson, Shaq Mason, Thuney, Stork, Andrews will be competing hard for spots on this team. Also what the hell do we get out of–

Jonathan Cooper. Pats gave up Chandler for this former first round pick. Is he worth anything at this point? If he is, we all assume Scar will get the most out of him, but after seasons of decline is it already too late?

Kraft, Jonathan and Robert: How can they get Goodell away from the NFL? It needs to happen. Like years ago. The league has begun to publically diminish his role, but is there anyway Goodell will let his grip off this league. His tenure has been an unmitigated disaster not just for Tom Brady, but for everyone who doesn’t want former players in their 30s and 40s killing themselves to preserve their brains for research. (Seriously, we’ve gotten to a bad place when players are depressed and suicidal enough to kill themselves and leave their families, but rational enough to say I don’t want this to happen to someone else, I’ll donate my brain to science!!!) And Goodell backed out of the study trying to determine CTE before people die. He came in as a pinch runner and thought he had hit a triple. The Krafts need to build a coalition that realizes the future of the league is without Goodell and without PTSD and CTE, a symptom of military service in war zones. All right, sorry about that. Training CAMP!!! WOOHOO!!!

Linebacker depth: Forget the offensive line, this is by far the biggest area of concern on the team. Collins and Hightower are all pro (and Nink, more below), Shea McClellin is interesting as a depth option, but I wonder if a trade for a functional I-LB might be in the offing. What this really means is Hightower is in the same position as McCourty after Revis left, very high leverage. I hope the Pats capitulate because they’re sort of SOL otherwise. Behind those four are more unproven lbs than comprise the Ryan brothers. (Because their fat losers, I don’t care if lap bands have been introduced!).

Martellus: The Black Unicorn is going to transform this offense as much as any player other than whoever the starting Quarterback is. How does he fit in? My bet is perfectly. Also he will really strongly enhance the running attack.

Ninkovich entering the final season of his contract now finds himself working with the linebackers. He’s a versatile player, has worked there before and should fit in, but this really points out the Patriots lack of depth in the middle of their defense. Color me, super flapping concerned.

Offense: In the early stages, we’ll see a conservative offense, however when defenses start packing the line, expecting run or selling blitz to try to rattle “il Grappa” (It’s a delicious Italian brandy), I can see McDaniels with some built-in alternatives: Quick slants, hits to the flat, Edelman’s speedy fake the inside slant and out… and a few play-action chances downfield on the seams for Gronk or Bennett. Also wonder if Martin’s silly motion, crossing action actually opens things up a bit drawing LB help. I’m fascinated to see this play out. All I know is it is going to be moving at light speed and that might not be good for the young QB.

Parity: will there be any competition in the AFC East? I hope not, but at some point the dam has to break and 4 games without the GOAT may be the most opportune time. Maybe this is the year for the Fins? Maybe? Bills? Maybe? Maybe the Jets, maybe? None of it feels right, but Maybe.

Quick twitch: this is the year of the juketacular New England Offensive player. Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Lewis… these dudes juke for a living. Hopefully the field is littered with laundry from opposing defenses and not ACLs.

Also QB: With Brady being away from the facility for the first 4 weeks of the regular season, do the Pats turn the reins over to him the moment he’s back? (Yes.) Is there going to be some lag in terms of missing that time? (Probably, who knows.) This is as confusing a time to be a Pats fan as ever. Usually at this time, we’re penciling in the bye (people say this too much, but it’s true). This year, it’s a total toss up. Heckuva job, Rog!

Roster: The only “advantage” of not having your best player for the first 4 weeks of the season is the roster size is essentially 55 players (along with Ebner). Belichick and Caserio will have a chance to evaluate talent and maximize their roster well into the season, unlike the other stupid teams with their stupid starting QBs who haven’t been suspended for acts of nature. (I’m still working it out.)

Scar. This might be the biggest 2016 FA acquisition Belichick made. Line is where championships are won and lost. Wish he’d been here last year.

Tackle: Solder, how does he come back from his injury. Whether or not it’s seamless, I expect to see him tested pretty early with his old practice buddy, Chandler. Sea Bass is there, but where do we go from there? Not Cannon or Fleming. (More on Waddle in a bit)

Undrafted Free Agents: This may be the year we don’t see a UFA make the team because the depth on the roster is really good: Bryce Williams, TE, Steve Scheu, TE, DJ Foster, RB, Woodrow Hamilton, DT, CJ Johnson, LB, V’Angelo Bently, CB, Cre’Von Leblanc, CB, Jonathan Jones, CB… head the list. We’re all hoping DJ Foster lights it up, but these guys may all have the practice squad as their ceiling. Also Cre’Von Leblanc has the best name in the NFL, book it.

Veteran WRs: Martin and Washington. Can the Patriots get something out of these guys? Martin reminds me of Jeff Green on the Celtics, he has all the physical tools, but somehow that doesn’t translate in games. Washington is a guy in the last chapters of a pretty stellar career, he has good straight-line speed and if the QB is given time, he thrives at getting open in the deepest quadrant of the field. He’s a guy that makes 40-yard passing plays look routine.

Waddle, LaAdrian: Can he be a viable replacement for Solder or Vollmer if they go down? We saw what happened last year and a repeat is in the offing unless they’ve found their fit at Swing Tackle. Cannon is much maligned and with good reason, Waddle only gave us a glimpse last year, but could hold up if Solder or Vollmer miss a few weeks.

X-Factor: 3 skill position players at 3 separate offensive positions: Lewis, Bennett, Hogan all have the potential to make this offense a juggernaut. We don’t know how things will shake out with il Grappa (this feels right), but these guys will allow the offense to bust up any attempt of a defense to try to play straight. Expect defensive blitzes to be areas where these X-factors excel.

whY does Tom Brady have to be away from the team’s facilities for the first 4 weeks of the season??!! No contact with coaches? I think this is a bigger kick in the tip than the suspension. Do they think he might sneak around deflating footballs? There are so many aspects of this punishment that are hard to take but this is like the stupid cherry on top. (I’m tapped out, this is the season of vengeance, Brady will serve and destroy.)

Z-receiver spot: the Patriots currently have a versatile group who can play outside and inside and this should allow them to move Hogan, Edelman, Amendola and Martin around formations, which should allow the QB to further identify the defensive match-ups. Edelman and Gronk should draw the top CBs in man to man and being able to move them around should help identify exploitable match-ups.

This is a great time to be a Pats fan and the interesting thing is we don’t know what will happen! On to Training Camp!

Patriots Training Camp Positional Battles

by

Patriots Training Camp

Unlike many teams in the NFL, the Patriots don’t really care what players have done previously or how they were acquired. At the start of training camp, it’s a blank slate for all and the players who stay healthy and perform are the ones who earn the jobs. Nowhere is this more apparent than the undrafted rookie free agents who make a seemingly stacked team almost every single year, and often play significant roles during the season.

This year there wasn’t a ton of roster turnover so the true competition spots are mostly in backup roles, but you can’t rule anything out with how the Patriots level the playing field each summer.

Here’s a list of interesting position competitions to keep an eye on.

(Note – the following appears in the 2016 PatsPropaganda Season Preview Book. You can pick up a digital download of the full 40-page preview here.)

LaAdrian Waddle vs. Marcus Cannon – Backup Swing Tackle

Cannon has a $4.75 million cap hit in this, the final year of his contract, and he’d cost just $1.07 million in dead cap space if they were to cut him. That contract, along with his up and down performance last year certainly puts a target on his back as the swing tackle. Waddle can play both sides as well, and though we didn’t see much of him in game action last year, the Pats thought enough of him to give him a two-year, $2.4 million deal this offseason. This season Waddle is making roughly one-fifth what Cannon is due to make and that could give him not only the inside track on the swing role this year, but possibly a shot to take over as the starting right tackle in 2017. Waddle was at left tackle in minicamp, while Cannon was on the right side with both Solder and Vollmer out.

Donald Brown vs. Tyler Gaffney – Early Down Running Back

Unless Dion Lewis is ready to go in Week 1, it’s probable that there will be a new running back in the mix at the start of the season. We’ve been waiting on Gaffney for two years now, and while Brown had a disappointing stint in San Diego, his overall versatility could make him a better fit in New England. Both can catch the ball, but have the size to take some early down punishment as well. James White’s job is far from safe as well, as it seems the Pats consider him just a receiving back and almost completely refused to hand the ball off to him last season. Undrafted rookie DJ Foster, could also be in the mix, but he fits the receiving back mold as well. It seems like it’s Brown vs. Gaffney at this point.

Cyrus Jones vs. Justin Coleman – “Star” Cornerback

The competition at cornerback this summer should be fascinating from top to bottom. I don’t think it’s a lock that Logan Ryan gets handed the starter’s spot opposite Malcolm Butler (the only lock), despite having a really solid year last season. All nine of the corners on the roster are feisty and physical, and capable of playing man-to-man. The easiest place to monitor first will be in the slot, where last year’s starter Justin Coleman will get a tough challenger in Cyrus Jones. Neither have an overwhelming physical advantage so it will boil down to who is showing up most consistently in practice. And really, you can’t rule any of the other corners out of the mix either. Depth in the secondary is always of vital importance and though most of them are thin on experience, their schematic fit is unquestionable across the board. In minicamp, Coleman was on the outside, while Jones was in the slot.

Tre Flowers vs. Geneo Grissom vs. Rufus Johnson – 4th DE

As I wrote earlier in the player previews, one of these guys really needs to emerge this season. Ninkovich isn’t playing forever and there’s no lock that Jabaal Sheard can definitely be re-signed, so this season must be about grooming at least one potential starter replacement. All three of these guys have their strengths – Grissom the most athletic, Flowers the toughest, and Johnson the biggest. How will it all play out in camp is tough to tell, but there’s potential here and hopefully one of these guys can begin with some pass rush time, followed with some long looks at defensive end. Preseason snaps will be critical for all. Another piece is replacing the 30 percent of special teams snaps that Chandler Jones played.

All the Young Guards – Starting Guards

There at least five guards who could be starting for the Patriots in Week 1. Factor in the versatility of center Bryan Stork and David Andrews and the options only expand. So it’s impossible to know how it will play out, especially at a position where injuries happen a lot. Mason and Jackson played well as rookies, but each has their issues (size for Mason, injuries for Jackson). Kline was the best guard last season but what’s his ceiling and how soon will he be back and healthy? Then there’s Cooper, the most gifted of all of them, but he was a big disappointment in Arizona. Can he recapture the magic that had him being the best guard in the 2013 draft? What about rookie Joe Thuney who played all over the line in college? This whole group, except Jackson, has played both guard spots and that complicates things even further.  Throw Dante Scarnecchia back into the mix and this is one of the most fluid camp battles we’ve seen in a long time.

Bryan Stork vs. David Andrews – Center

Assuming Stork and Andrews do stay permanently at their natural center position there might only be room for one of them. This is the most clear head-to-head battle and that was confirmed in minicamp where both players saw time with the top unit. Stork played a number of different spots in 2015 and that boosts his chances for making the team. The loser could be a trade candidate but you’d love to hang on to two great young players who can both do the job.

Other Battles to Watch:

Vincent Valentine vs. Markus Kuhn – 4th DT

AJ Derby vs. Clay Harbor – 3rd TE

DeAndre Carter vs. Keshawn Martin vs. Chris Harper – 5th WR

Jonathan Jones vs. Darryl Roberts – 5th CB

A Last Look Back at the Patriots 2016 Offseason

by

Patriots 2016 offseasonAs we stand on the precipice of another campaign, I wanted to take one last quick look back at another Patriots offseason.

In some ways I felt like I never got a true ending for the 2015 Patriots. It all started the Saturday evening before their AFC Championship Game against the Broncos. And by “it” I mean the pukes. I was sick all night, finally getting some rest in the early morning hours. Needless to say this completely derailed all excitement and preparation for the big game.

Instead of putting together a ton of good food and drinks, I watched the 2015 Patriots’ demise trying to hold down saltine crackers with a bit of Gatorade. I just didn’t have the mental nor physical energy to deal with such a frustrating loss as that one. Going in I knew if it was a “clean” game the Patriots should win. If it was a fluky game, the Pats would get upset.

Surprise, surprise it was a fluky game. Gostkowski missed his first extra point since his rookie year. The offensive line was completely unprepared to deal with Denver’s pass rush. Jamie Collins, coming off an excellent year in pass coverage, was toasted twice for touchdowns. And all Peyton Manning‘s ducks somehow avoided interception.

Still, Brady put together a miracle drive and if he’d found the open Gronk for the two-pointer we really woulda/shoulda been headed to overtime. But the disappointment of laying another unrepresentative turd in Denver quickly subsided as I crawled back into bed and continued what would be a two-week fight against the flu that cost me over ten pounds.

The biggest offseason headline was the continuation and ending of Deflategate. Brady’s lawyers got hammered by the three judge panel in the Second Circuit. A couple months later Brady’s suspension was re-instated and his last appeal later denied.

By the time Brady decided to just accept a four-game vacation to start the season, everyone was done with Deflategate. Once October hits it will be nice to know the whole charade is in the rearview mirror. Until we have to eat that final fourth-round pick in next year’s draft. Then it’s really over.

Free agency was interesting as usual. Martellus Bennett, Chris Long, Chris Hogan and Shea McClellin were the key additions. Dominique Easley and Brandon LaFell were the surprise (ish) departures. Bennett alone was enough to inspire excitement that the Patriots’ offense will have an unstoppable new dimension.

The most significant subtraction came when Chandler Jones was traded in one of the most predictable “surprise” moves Bill Belichick has ever made. Jones was entering the last year of his deal and was a lock to command way more than the Patriots would ever pay him. This was a classic Belichick move. A year early rather than a year late. And if Jonathan Cooper lives up to his draft billing, the Pats could come away with a steal.

But most of the football-related attention of the offseason focused not on 2016 but on 2017. That’s when Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard and Malcolm Butler (RFA) are due to hit free agency. “How can we keep everyone?”… “Who walks if one of them has to walk?”… Yes, we’re already burned out on these questions that we’ll be rehashing in seven months.

The draft ended up being a head scratcher as usual. With no proven healthy running back on the roster the Pats still passed on selecting one in the draft. This is an area of major interest going into camp, because no one forgets how one-dimensional the Pats were at the end of 2015.

Still, the Pats did what they always do in the draft. Take the players who fit, worry about lack of depth later. Cyrus Jones and Joe Thuney should step right into significant roles, while expectations for Malcolm Mitchell are high. The list of failed wide receivers in New England is long. But there’s hope Mitchell can click.

As for things here on the site, this will be the seventh full season of PatsPropaganda and the tenth overall that I’ve blogged excessively about the Pats. There were major changes to the site this offseason, including a migration from the Tumblr platform to a fully hosted site. I’ve added a collection of great contributors who should push the level and frequency of the content here to an unprecedented level.

The Prop Shop is back. We’re adding new partnerships with brands every week, including a near-daily short podcast that will be featured on RotoGab. It’s my hope that we can continue to carve out a unique niche within the landscape of outlets who cover the team professionally. We’re still just a blog, but I’ll put our coverage of the team up against any other outlet, including those who do it as a full time job.

2016 is an exciting year for the Patriots. We must realize that we’re closer to the end of Brady and Belichick than the start. And the end can come quickly and unexpectedly. We have to enjoy every snap this season and unfortunately, take it a little more seriously, because this very well could be the best last shot at ring number five.

We’ll get a glimpse of Jimmy Garoppolo as a small potential post-Brady preview and that should only serve to have us all appreciate TB12 that much more. But with Peyton and the Broncos seemingly out of the way, there really should be no excuses to fall short of the Super Bowl this year.

That’s a lot of pressure, but would we really have it any other way?

Here’s to another great season and most of all, NO INJURIES!!!!

On the Bubble: E.J. Biggers

by

EJ Biggers PatriotsI have a confession: when the Patriots first signed E.J. Biggers I had absolutely no idea who he was. Not a clue.  Biggers is a career backup and special-teams player, so unless you’re an NFL personnel junkie, Central Michigan, Tampa, Washington or Philadelphia fan (aka a masochist) you wouldn’t have had many opportunities to see Biggers. What’s worse is PFF ranked him as the third WORST player in the entire NFL in 2015, which drew the ire of many Patriots fans.

So what’s the deal with Biggers? Are Caserio, BB & Ernie Adams “lighting up the lighthouse” in the Gillette Stadium press box, or have the Patriots (as usual) seen talent that other teams might’ve missed?

While I’m certainly not guaranteeing Biggers will make the team, I think he has a solid chance to make the roster as a CB5/ST player in 2016. I also think he’s a player many Patriots fans have written off already, and I hope I can at least put him back on the bubble because he deserves to be there. As I noted previously, if nothing else, he brings a veteran presence to a young cornerback corps.

Biggers’ NFL History

Biggers comes from a football hotbed in Dade County, FL. where he was Dade County Player of the Year in 2005. Surprisingly, Biggers was not highly recruited and attended small school, Western Michigan. He saw considerable action in all four years at WMU, something the Patriots love in prospects. The Pats also love versatility, and I’m guessing BB must’ve donned a rare grin when he saw this play from Biggers’ sophomore season (Biggers #1).

Biggers was selected in the seventh round, 217th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2009. In a draft where the Pats whiffed on Myron Pryor at 207, and then picked again at 232 and 234 (Edelman, Darryl Richard), Biggers could have easily been on the Patriots radar coming out of college.

Biggers was placed on IR after week 1 of his rookie season in 2009. He would go on to play alongside former Patriot Aqib Talib in Tampa for the better parts of the 2010-2012 campaigns.  In his first start in 2010, Biggers recorded his first career interception on a prayer from of Jake Delhomme.  (Hey, remember Jake Delhomme you guys? SBXXXVIII anyone? Good times. Gooooooood times.) Look at the way Biggers turns to find the ball and makes the play! That’s some pretty solid coverage and ball skills if I do say so myself! 

Biggers’ best statistical season was 2011 when he recorded 61 tackles, double-digit pass defenses and an interception, playing primarily as an outside corner with Talib. Biggers won (kindof) on the free agency market in 2013, inking a $1.5 million deal with the Redskins. In Washington he was used as more of a backup, which resulted in a production drop off from a steady plateau above 50 tackles down to 35. Still, Biggers re-signed a one-year $730K minimum deal with Washington and put up similar numbers in 2014.

In 2015 Biggers signed a 1-year minimum deal with the Eagles, which saw him playing all over the field in Chip Kelly’s defense. Biggers lined up in the box at Safety quite a bit in Philadelphia, and while he has some positional flexibility there, I think he’s best used as a corner playing on the line. Biggers needs to keep his hands on receivers, and does not excel at reading and reacting to defenders taking up space in front of him, a skill that is crucial for safeties. For example, in week 17 last year vs. the Giants, Biggers got completely eaten up on three consecutive plays by former Patriot Shane Vereen. Watch Vereen coming out of the backfield at Biggers who is lined up in the box at Safety. Ugly stuff, but keep in mind this isn’t his natural position. Biggers getting burned the first time (Biggers #38). Biggers getting burned the second time. Biggers getting burned the third time.  Seriously guys, did that really happen? Are these the exact same play calls? What the hell is going on in Chip Kelly’s brain? Where am I?

Make no mistake, on these plays Biggers might as well have just pulled down his pants, defecated on the field and sat in it.  PFF gave Biggers a -3.9 grade for the game, a pretty damn low score (as previously mentioned, PFF also ranked Biggers as their third worst player in the NFL last year with a -12.9 rating, that’s worse than burnt toast Bradley Fletcher). However, I’d disagree with PFF’s grading in this instance as I think they unfairly weighted splash plays against Biggers.

First, I have to say, if Chip Kelly and his staff just sit there with their dicks in the dirt and refuse to make an adjustments is that really Biggers’ fault?  Second, while Biggers definitely got burned several times in this game, when I re-watched I thought he was actually pretty solid in coverage down the field. He had a tough assignment switching from safety to man-marking OBJ on the outside, not many NFL players could do that. Here he is in tight coverage on OBJ in the Red Zone.  Keep in mind this was also a meaningless week 17 game for Philadelphia.  But you want to know my favorite thing about E.J. Biggers? Here he is in the fourth quarter competing to the bitter end and getting his revenge on Vereen. You gotta love that.

Ok, so there is one glaring error in Biggers’ game that I’ve been pretty brazenly ignoring. He’s not the best tackler, and that might be the understatement of the century. This might be the worst corner play in the history of organized football.  You could say that he’s out on an island on a 1,000-yd receiver in John Brown… There’s also there’s this travesty. But you could argue that the entire Eagles defense is at fault there. There are more but I will spare you.

Am I an E.J. Biggers apologist? Perhaps. But I think he has clear cover skills and has been used out of position/sparingly the past couple seasons which has diminished his value to many other league executives. The Patriots certainly won’t ask Biggers to man mark WR1s in the Red Zone, and I hope we don’t see him at Safety,  but I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the field in New England. His saving grace when it comes to making the final 53-man roster might ultimately be his potential special-teams contributions, but he can do a lot. Biggers played 60% of Philadelphia’s special teams snaps last year, and was a pretty solid gunner/jammer from what I watched.

Final Verdict

If I had to call it now I’d say he’s one of the last four guys cut unfortunately, but he should stick around until final cuts. I think the Patriots have nailed some of their UDFA players (Jonathan Jones <3) that in the long term might be more attractive to the club, but there’s LOTS to like about Biggers. Yet, if there’s one thing that’s for certain with the Patriots it’s that you never know what the hoodie is thinking, but I hope I’ve solidified Biggers’ place on the roster bubble.

Reiss/ESPNBoston: Patriots PUP List

by

One of the last gut punches of the offseason is usually the announcement of the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which quickly tells you who isn’t quite fully recovered from offseason injury/surgeries. Often this list comes with surprises, but this year everything looks pretty straightforward.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both recently underwent surgery after injury-plagued seasons. Dion Lewis and Shaq Mason made appearances at the final day of mini-camp but aren’t quite ready to jump into the action this week. Sebastian Vollmer’s status has been under-the-radar this offseason, but he went through plenty of small injury issues last season as well.

All had lingering issues that will need to managed early on.

The good news is that left tackle Nate Solder, who played just three full games in 2015, is not on the list. Also that zero members of the defense will start out on the sideline. That’s a great start for them, especially with so many physical players who had their fair share of injury issues last season.

The offensive pieces that are out will be vital in the long haul, especially Edelman and Lewis. Their absences will give more reps to younger players and hopefully spur their development. Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell would do well to take advantage of the extra time with Brady.

Players can come off the PUP list at any time. If they aren’t removed from the PUP list by the start of the regular season, they can be kept on it through the first six weeks of the season. At this point, it wouldn’t appear any of those opening camp on the list would be likely candidates to remain on the list into the season, but there can be a roster advantage to stashing someone away.

Pre-Training Camp Patriots 53-Man Roster Roundup

by

The PatsPropaganda staff all projected their pre-Training Camp 53-man rosters, giving us a general picture of how we see things shaking out. The biggest unknowns are, of course, injuries. Nothing unravels the best laid plans of the offseason faster. But there are plenty of big questions as we get ready to kick off camp next week.

Who will start of the PUP list in camp, and in season? Who can’t pass the conditioning test? Or worse, who gets hurt in camp and leaves a hole for someone new to fill?

Generally the Pats Prop team seemed mostly on the same page as to the locks and the bubble guys. Here’s how things shook out, and where the areas of most intrigue are.

The locks (41):

  • QB: Garoppolo, Brissett
  • RB: Blount, Bolden, Develin
  • WR: Edelman, Amendola, Hogan, Mitchell, Slater (ST)
  • TE: Gronk, Bennett, Harbor
  • OL: Thuney, Mason, Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Waddle
  • DE: Ninkovich, Sheard, Long, Grissom
  • DT: Brown, Branch, Knighton, Valentine
  • LB: Hightower, Collins, McClellin, Freeny, Grugier-Hill
  • CB: Butler, Ryan, Coleman, Jones
  • S: McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards, King
  • Roster Exempt: Brady, Ebner

This leaves 12 roster spots that were up for debate. Let’s take a closer look at the areas where the projections differed most and what position battles to focus on.

RBs, Dion Lewis and the PUP

The only ones who left Dion Lewis off had him on the PUP list, meaning the Pats would sit him for the first six weeks of the regular season. That would appear to leave things a little thin. White, Gaffney, Brown and Foster all made some of the rosters. No one seems quite sure what to make of them at this point.

Niko: I gave White the nod because of his explosiveness as a receiver out of the backfield, but ask me again in a couple of weeks and I could go another way. I expect James to be pushed by the other backs I mentioned, who both may be more effective running between the tackles.

Rick: Going youth + proven commodities at RB: Foster over James White, and due to various roster exemptions, keeping both Gaffney and Brown active to start the year, Gaffney probably not making the gameday 46. This is where I see the largest likelihood of being incorrect, as 6 deep at RB is a lot.

Jamie: I think Pats have a lot to choose from and I was pretty afraid to make those choices: I forced myself to trim so Develin could make the team. I think upside of someone like Foster is exciting, but if it’s possible I think he begins the year on the practice squad. Probably dangerous, but maybe.

Interior Offensive Line

Everyone was in sync on the tackles with Waddle beating out Fleming, but there was a lot of differing opinions on Stork, Andrews, Jackson and Kline.

Jamie:  I think Stork and Andrews are redundant and neither are great or bad, if one could move to other spots effectively that’d be great, but we haven’t seen that. I’d imagine Stork has a better trade value so maybe that’s the route if there’s a center hungry team. I do think the Pats probably will try to stash some of their young OL talent on the practice squad, but as of now, I think they roll the dice and keep 10 O lineman, sans Stork and try to find a guard who can swing to center in a pinch.

Niko:  Offensive line is clearly an area of focus, and may be the most unpredictable and intense competition on the roster. I left David Andrews off because of Thuney’s ability to play anywhere up front, and Tre Jackson off because of his uneven health. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson was stashed on the “PUP” list at the beginning of the season as a way to buy time for last year’s 4th round pick.

Cornerback

Half of the projections had Darryl Roberts as the fifth cornerback, the other half had undrafted rookie Jonathan Jones. This matchup and Stork vs. Andrews are the most clear-cut head-to-head position battles in camp.

Niko: There should be a solid clash for the final cornerback spot(s) behind the top 3 locks (Butler, Ryan, Jones). I currently have Coleman and Jones edging out Biggers, Roberts, Bentley, and LeBlanc. Out of the cuts, Roberts has the best chance to stick.

Other Notes:

LB/DE

Niko: Two tough cuts on the defensive line: Trey Flowers and Markus Kuhn. Grissom edges out Flowers because of (you guessed it) special teams contributions, and there’s simply no room for Kuhn with Branch, Brown, “Pot Roast”, and Valentine presumably being locks.  My thinking is that McClellin could and will be used on the defensive line, and a few of the safeties are chiefly special teams studs.

Rick: I can see both Grissom and Nink playing standing up, which increases linebacker depth.

Jamie: I projected that the Pats keep all of their DE on the 90 man because that’s just how they roll, they like the versatility on the edge and they have plenty to choose from. There’s a possibility they move on from one and keep an extra man in LB core.

WR

Niko: Keyshawn Martin over Nate Washington and Aaron Dobson.  I went with Martin mainly because of his contributions on special teams.

Jamie: Devin Lucien on the roster: he could probably be snuck onto the practice squad and have Nate Washington or Keyshawn Martin on the roster, but, did you ever actually watch his college highlights? He runs the exact route tree that Troy Brown/Deion Branch/Tim Dwight/Wes Welker/Edelman/Amendola have made their bones with in New England and absolutely crushes it. HELLO. Fits like a glove. Probably a gameday inactive, but if not, spells either one to keep them fresh down the stretch. Nate Washington reeks of “veteran callback in week 11 roster emergency” if anything to me, though.

Adam: I really wanted to keep Tyler Gaffney but I just could not bring myself to do it. Excited about the return of James Develin. I think he’ll be a key to keeping Garoppolo in good shape for the first quarter of the season.

Silver Linings Playbook: Task list to withstand the first four with Gabagool.

by

Jimmy Garoppolo PatriotsFor the first four games, the New England Patriots offense will be helmed by Jimmy Garoppolo and then presumably the rest of the season by Brady (sorry, ESPN trolls I’m not linking to your dumb hot takes). Meaning that the Patriots offense will undergo the largest adjustment of the NFL season simply by obligation (barring Aaron Rodgers being suspended for four games for openly admitting he required his staff to overinflate balls).

Luckily for them, the Pats have the “Adjuster in Chief” in William Stephen Belichick and his “Secretary of Offense” in Joshua Thomas McDaniels. This inane lynching of Brady will be no different than his ’08 injury, they will adjust. Sure, not having 12 will hurt a buttload more than it helps, but there are few silver linings.

Does the Brady suspension make the Pats Offense MORE unpredictable? Yes.

Smarter (and lazier) men than I came up with a more nuanced way to approach analysis of the NFL, which is to evaluate it in four-game chunks that form trends. Football at the highest level is just stacks on stacks on stacks of adjustments, like a Mahjongg tile game. When you look at a 16 game season or multiple seasons, the nuances are indecipherable, but if you cut three-quarters of the tiles away, you can register the ways offenses and defenses are adjusting, which makes the areas of strength and weakness much easier to identify.

With four games a piece from two different QBs, this will make this type of evaluation more difficult for opposing defenses. Because after week 8 is the bye week, where the Pats self-evaluate and make adjustments in anticipation of teams exploiting their found weaknesses (Good timing).  It’s worth noting that the Pats offense last year was the best in the league, by far over the first nine weeks of the season. To some extent, that calendar is extended this year (barring injury) through more than three-quarters of the regular season.

But not having the best player on the team, also makes the team much much much worse. Here are ways to blunt the most damage and the ways they could backfire.

Task 1: Build a variation of the offense that suits Garopollo’s strengths.

Phil Simms could have pulled this out of whatever’s left between his ears, but it’s worth mentioning that Josh McDaniels is pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good at tailoring an offense to individual players’ skills. It definitely won’t be Cassell ‘08 redux, (always link to the boss’ bomb post) which was like a Tesla being driven by my great grandmother. But McDaniels made Kyle Orton an effective QB (’10-’11 RTG: 87.1), so he will be chomping at the bit to highlight the areas that JG’s effective.

Complication: Jimmy G’s basically Brady but 6’2″ and unproven: he has a quick release, reads defenses well and works quickly, intense, hardworker, strong leader. So the offense probably won’t be that much different.

Task 2: Use wrinkles that you wouldn’t use with Brady under center.

When Brady’s running the offense, the Patriots rarely use gadget plays because the offense doesn’t need to gamble.  But they’re certainly not opposed to it. (SIDENOTE: This is all anecdotal because no one has real statistics in the NFL, somehow the NBA can tell us within an inch where Bill Russell shot from on a Tuesday in 1964, and baseball has a pitch locator that identifies speed, spin, location in less than a second, but no one has ever charted plays in the NFL, despite it’s popularity and lack of a large sample size, good lord, anyway).

With Brady, all they have to do is execute or “do their job” (the most tired but still relevant phrase) at their various positions and they will be fine playing it straight. (INSERT: STAT for gadget plays, oh, right, there aren’t any) As someone who thinks the gadget play design and execution that the Patriots used in ’14 Ravens AFC Divisional round game were some of the most inspired and balls-out plays in NFL history, I am pro-gadget play. And as a football fan, I love things like this video:

.

(My favorite is the bounce pass from Presbyterian, note for Indy turf, prepare). In order to win against tough defenses (ari, MIA, HOU, BUF) they may need to take a few chances with the young guy.

Complication: When a new QB takes over, typically you want to simplify not overcomplicate. Also gadget plays can blow up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM

Seriously go over to Youtube and watch it, I’ll wait.  Okay now watch it one more time. S000000o good. Collinsworth: What the… heck?

Task 3: Create mismatches that are easier to exploit.

I wrote about this last weekend, but the elite two TE packages will make things easier on Jimmy G. Identifying how many DBs vs. LBs on the field is far simpler than individual player match-ups.

Complication: You’re asking a person who hasn’t played a meaningful football game in 3 years to quickly identify personnel and adjust protections. Lot to ask.

Task 4: Create a nickname for this dude, a starting QB needs a solid handle.

Brees, Brady, Rodgers… nowhere does Garoppolo fit into that list. If he’s going to gain trade value or *gulp* be a long-term option for the Pats, this has to happen. Also, it’s exhausting typing Garoppolo, it’s like Belichick, it never looks right however you spell it. JG’s Italian, so my pick is Jimmy Gabagool.

Complication: Gabagool is harder to type.

Task 5: Protect the dude.

With no Brady and Ebner, I think Belichick and Caserio keep an extra O-lineman on the active roster, which should at least give them ample bodies at each position on the front line.

Complication: O-line will improve, but Solder’s coming off major surgery and Vollmer ain’t exactly a healthy doggy. Depth at Tackle isn’t optimal.

Task 6: Stop talking about how handsome he is until he wins a game.

This one is for media members and fawning “hilarious” tweeters, losers aren’t handsome, they’re “pretty boys”. Pretty boys suck.

All that being said, I’m decently optimistic, but first four weeks are gonna suck a little. Maybe he wins ugly, maybe he loses a few, maybe he loses em all, who knows. We know that Brady will be back and ready to go in October, that’s all that matters. Until then, keep the expectations low and keep Brady ’01 in mind. Godspeed.