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A Closer Look at Flea Flicking Off the Ravens

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We all know how much better the Patriots running game has been this year than last year. With three games to go, there have been more rushing touchdowns and more first downs than last seasons full year totals. Leading the way from a statistical standpoint has been Legarrette Blount. Actually leading the way has been the offensive line under the returning Dante Scarnecchia, and an infusion of young, hungry, and mean players on the inside of the line.

This season’s running game has been a welcome change from the abysmal ground game in 2015. Play actions feel more effective. Comparing what statistics are available, Tom Brady was 6th in Football Outsiders DVOA in 2015 on play action passes, though only 21st in yardage differential on passes without play action. and this year has the highest passer rating in the league on play action passes, with a 125.0 (2016 DVOA numbers for play action aren’t available yet). That’s a great effect of the running game.

Numbers start to look that good when opposing teams are heavily committed to stopping the run, as opposed to barely caring if you hand the ball off…and when your running game has well-coached teams committed to the point of overpursuit, you start getting away with beautifully ballsy plays like this:

This is the first half of the flea flicker that went to Chris Hogan for 28 yards. One of those sexy-not sexy plays that doesn’t make a highlight reel during the week, because it didn’t score, and wasn’t a turnover. Stay hypnotized by that play for a moment. Here is the All-22 of the same play, watch the action of Baltimore’s defense up front:

Eight Ravens in pursuit. Great read by CJ Mosley to follow when David Andrews peeled off his block to go back and protect Brady, and the coverage was actually pretty solid down field. Hogan beat his 1 on 1, and Malcolm Mitchell was bracketed by a corner and safety. The Ravens played this as well as possible, but were still hopelessly out of position up front. In 2015, this play probably has some devastating hit to Brady, or the pitch back to Brady is intercepted for a touchdown, or some other ugly result. Instead, we have probably the longest flea flicker pitch in history (Seriously! Look at that! Blount starts in the middle of the field and ends up a good 5-6 yards outside the hash before that pitch! Insane!), and one more thing for opposing defenses to have to worry about when overcommitting to the run.

This was beautiful, and I sure am looking forward to the next development off of the success of the running game.

Best/Worst in Weekly Patriots Links-12/17

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First and foremost, my reaction to “Deflategate 2”:

If a picture says a thousand words, a video must say a million. I’m in one heck of a mood, so in order to sustain that you can take a local sports opinion on the matter (Tom Curran, CSN) and a national culture one (Alex Reimer, Forbes), mix them together, stir, and reach your own conclusion. Throw in a few (dozen) expletives and you’ve got mine. Moving on, let’s get to the important stuff: what happened on Monday night at Gillette.

Boss man Mike D provides his reaction here, with a rightfully so, additional focus on the defense. He opines:

The energy was just different from the Patriots defense in this game. They played hungry, with something to prove. They had just two sacks but the pressure was consistent and disruptive. They worked well in conjunction with each other.

I can honestly say I did not realize they had just two sacks and was quite frankly a bit surprised. It could just be me, but did it not feel like they were all over Flacco the whole game? He certainly didn’t look comfortable back there, never coming close to anything resembling a rhythm or flow. Brady threw for 406, and sans a bad interception, played a very close to perfect game. Blount punished defenders early and often, mostly having his way on the ground. As crazy as it sounds, I’m happier about what we saw on the other side of the football. The front seven were flying around, dropping into coverage, rushing, alternating assignments the next play. Forget the blocked field goal (which was absolutely brilliant), McLellin was cracking people throughout. Brown, Branch, and Valentine were excellent plugging up the middle, Butler and the secondary played with an edge and physicality that we hadn’t consistently seen to this point. Listen, I’m not crowning them the units of the early 2000s or anything, but Patricia’s bunch seem to be getting it together at the perfect time. I feel a lot more confident in this group than I did at this time a month ago, that’s for sure.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 at Denver Broncos

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We’re going back. It’s no secret that Denver has been a house of horrors for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Three times has Brady’s playoff run ended in Denver (2005, 2013, 2015), more than any other away stadium or team. The annoying thing about Denver, and this was especially true in both losses there last year, is that they’re fluky weird games, with Gostkowski’s missed extra point still looming large over last year’s season ender.

Now the Broncos are not the same team that won the Super Bowl this year. Free agency departures, retirements and injuries have depleted a team that rode their impenetrable defense to a championship last season, despite an offense that was the least lethal to ever raise the Lombardi Trophy.

This is an important game for so many reasons. The tangible — that the Patriots can clinch a first round bye with a win and give themselves options to rest some key players down the stretch. The intangible — getting the Denver monkey off their back and potentially eliminating the Broncos from playoff contention in the process.

Yes, there would be a lot to feel good about after a Patriots win this Sunday, and it appears that the Broncos are primed to get throttled, IF, the Patriots can finally just play their game in the Mile High Stadium.

What the Pats need to do to put a nice big bow on the 2016 season before turning their sites to the playoffs in the gameplan…

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Patriots vs Ravens Film Review: Defense Edition

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This was the game by the defense that I’ve been waiting a long time for. Were there some mistakes? Of course. But overall, the Patriots defense played with their best intensity of the season and demonstrated why they can be as good as they want to be when they play within the system.

The big headline coverage-wise in this one was a shift to a lot more zone coverage, with a lot of special attention being paid to the middle of the field as I noted was a critical area in my gameplan article. Early in the game the Patriots played a lot of Cover 2 zone, which had safeties over the tops of the wide receivers and a flood of three zone players right in the flat.

They mixed in some man coverage, but this was primarily a zone game as they shifted to more Cover 3 in the second half. It was a good lesson for me from a football study perspective. I’ve always believe man coverage is the only way to go in today’s NFL but this game showed how effective zone can be when it’s executed well.

We’re finally seeing what we expected this season. An amoeba defense that can flood the line of scrimmage and have any number of guys drop or rush. Maybe they just needed some time but everyone is working together now and the results were obvious. Boil it down to the simple “Do Your Job” because that’s what everyone on the Patriots defense was doing.

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Young Guards Keying Patriots Resurgent Ground Attack

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Save for two terrible plays on special teams, the Patriots put forth their best overall effort of the season Monday night against Baltimore, led by a defensive effort unrivaled by anything we have seen out of this unit thus far in 2016, and, of course, Tom Brady and his 406 yards passing and three touchdowns. But an after-thought of sorts of the performance was the Patriots ability to run the football against the best rush defense in the NFL. Entering the Week 13 contest, the Ravens defense led the NFL in yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and rush yards allowed per game – not to mention they led the NFL in points allowed per game. In short, running the ball figured to be a tall task for the Patriots Monday night, especially considering it has been a long time since the Patriots have had a rushing attack of a high enough caliber to have success against the best rush defenses in football.

Prior to the matchup, the Ravens allowed only 3.4 yards per carry and just 75.5 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots rushed for 94 yards on the ground, and averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and while an uptick of only 0.3 yards more per carry doesn’t seem like a lot, consider this: the Ravens held Lesean McCoy and the Bills to a mere 2.7 YPC, Latavius Murray and the Raiders to just 3.3 YPC, and Leveon Bell and the Steelers to only 2.0 YPC. In fact, LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.0 YPC against Baltimore on Monday, more than all three backs I mentioned. He even put up a higher average than NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliot did against the Ravens  in their matchup earlier this season (Elliot averaged 3.9 YPC).

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Grudge Match: Week 15 Scouting Report: The Denver Broncos

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After a long week with an extra day of recovery, The Pats are now on a short week to prepare for the Denver Broncos. This game doesn’t feel like it has the last few years, partly because Peyton Manning is gone, and partly because the Broncos have certainly lost a step. The Patriots could knock the Broncos out of playoff contention so they’re fighting for their lives here. There is nothing I love more than being the spoiler for Denver this season so let’s get to it.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Denver Broncos, aka, “John Elway’s Free Agent Frenzy”

Week 15 at Denver Broncos

Sunday December 18

4:25 pm, CBS

Low 20’s (Patriot football weather), Minimal chance of precipitation, 6 mph winds

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Pats Posits: The Rumble with Double Fumbles

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The Patriots overcame three critical turnovers in what was otherwise their best game of the 2016 season, defeating the Ravens 30-23. It was interesting, as it always is with these teams, but the Pats sealed the game with a clutch 79-yard touchdown pass to a streaking Chris Hogan. That put the Pats back up by 10 and effectively won the game.

A quick-strike 79-yard touchdown? A 1,000 yard rusher leading the league in touchdowns? A defense leading the league in points-against and safeties? Who is this Patriots team, because I think I love them.

It’s hard to win in the playoffs against good teams when you turn the ball over three times in the second half. But the good news is that great teams don’t collapse when they cough it up twice on back-to-back returns.

It was hard not to recall the 2015 season and how everything seemed to be going pretty great until Harper’s Muff in Denver. That team still fought to overtime before succumbing to the Broncos and watching their homefield advantage and season slowly fade away, but the 2016 team decided:

Cyrus’ Muff was not the hill they were dying on. Nor was Slater’s Cough Up.

Resiliency. The mark of any championship team. No matter how much people want to complain about Cyrus Jones this week, things are looking good for the pending Super Bowl run. Clean up the turnovers and the Patriots will be primed for a run at number five.

More on the 2016 Patriots’ identity, how to proceed with Cyrus, and more in the Posits…

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