PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Pats Posits: The Luxury of a Maddening Victory

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Doesn’t it feel like this is the year that NFL parity finally kicked in? Yes, the Patriots are 4-2 and we think we have plenty to complain about, but when you look around the league it’s hard to make any sense of it all. There were conference-altering injuries like Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone. There was the final undefeated team falling. And there was yet another week where some teams are up, some teams are down and no one knows who’s really good or bad.

Simply put, ironing out firm Super Bowl favorites at this point is near impossible. Every team has flaws and no one is safe from huge injuries. So before you jump off the bridge about the Patriots’ defense, just take a deep breath and realize that despite their flaws, there aren’t any flawless teams and well, we still have Tom Brady. You know, the winningest quarterback of all time in all regards now.

I still give the Pats a puncher’s chance against anyone, especially this year and that counts for a lot.

Here are the Posits on what was once again a maddening victory, which are quickly becoming the hallmark of the 2017 Pats.

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Inconsistent Patriots Hang On Again to Beat Jets

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The Patriots hung on once again to beat the Jets 24-17 to move into first place in the AFC East for the first time in 2017.

It was another up-and-down performance for the Pats that closely mirrored what we saw against the Buccaneers 10 days earlier. One drive they’re forcing three-and-outs or marching down the field, the next they’re getting gashed by big plays with wide open receivers or going three-and-out themselves.

It’s a maddening display of inconsistency that has become the hallmark of this edition of the Pats. What drives you nuts is that they show they’re capable of being dominant at times on both sides of the ball. But in crunchtime neither side of the ball seems to deliver with authority.

But deliver they did even if there is plenty to pick apart.

Still, a win is a win, especially a divisional win on the road. The Patriots definitely still have a long way to go, maybe longer than they’ve ever had to go in the middle of October, but four wins buys you some time.

Here’s how it all went down.

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Patriots Pregame Meal: Surprise Absences Throw Late Twist

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After what felt like two weeks off the Patriots are back to take on the Jets today. I gotta admit it, I miss Rex Ryan still, he made the season so much more interesting and his defenses usually gave Brady and the offense some trouble. I guess I won’t miss those parts, we’ll see what the young Jets can do today. I expect they’ll play with their hair on fire with nothing to lose, which might make it interesting early, but I expect the Pats to pull away in the second half.

Certainly hurts that they’ll be without Bilal Powell, who was the one multi-threat weapon that I thought could really get the Pats on their heels. Josh McCown might play up to Bill Belichick’s lofty expectations but ultimately this is a traditional offense and those haven’t really seemed to be a problem for the Patriots defense.

Yesterday was a crazy day of Patriots news, with Harvey Langi getting into a car accident and Stephon Gilmore mysteriously turning up with a concussion. Obviously I hope Langi and his wife are okay, I drive by the area where his accident happened all the time and it’s scary to imagine getting plowed into like that. On a football level it would seem like Langi season could very well be over which isn’t exactly a devastating blow for the team but it’s just another injury that thins depth, hurts a promising player’s development and is yet another linebacker down.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at New York Jets

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It felt like a lackluster Patriots off week, didn’t it? The Pats had an okay with last Thursday night, but it was so middle of the road that it sparked neither the “Pats are dead” nor the “Pats are Super Bowl favorites” crowds.

Sure there were plenty of complaints like there usually are. I think those were best summed up when I was listening to Dale and Holley for a minute and they were complaining about the offensive line. Then there was a pause and Holley mentioned that Pro Football Focus has the o-line ranked 11th in the league. Silence. What were we just talking about? They digressed. Yeah, it was one of those kinds of weeks, where everyone goes to default complaints but there just wasn’t the same kind of fire that existed after the Panthers’ loss.

The other big headline? That Tom Brady has a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder. By this time we just brush off Brady injuries like they’re no big deal. Brady brushed it off. We brush it off. Do we take his toughness and durability for granted? Of course! But tying any injury, no matter how small, to the offensive line are just the dots that must be connected when you have 10 days off and hours upon hours of sports talk radio time to fill.

How do we feel about the Patriots right now? If we’re being honest with ourselves it does feel like it’s off to another injury apocalypse year like 2013 started out and 2015 became. But it’s still early so no one should be abandoning ship just yet, but keeping the remaining roster healthy, especially 12, 87, 80 and 54 is critical to any Super Bowl aspirations.

In some ways it feels like the Pats are under the radar. I like how Kurt Warner put it, the Pats aren’t the favorites in the AFC, they’re the favorites to upset the favorites. That sounds about right. Still, the real football season is just starting and that’s always when the Patriots start to roll.

This week has been a soft reset. The defense didn’t look lost against the Bucs and the offense showed more explosiveness. Both ran out of gas at the end to make the game interesting, but it’s hard to kill them for that on a Thursday night on the road.

So now we get back to business against a Jets team that could field 22 high school JV players and still play the best Patriots team close in mid-October in the Meadowlands. For whatever reason, that’s just always how it seems to go unless it’s the rare exception like the Buttfumble game.

What do the Pats have to do to get their first divisional win and get the Patriots hype train back on track? Here’s the gameplan.

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Coffin Corner: Matt Patricia’s White Whale – 3rd and 2

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If the Bucs employed my two-year-old at kicker, last week’s “run-it-back” defensive gameplan would have failed. Should have failed. The Patriots didn’t have time to fix the fairly large-scale issues on a short week, so they went with “same but try harder” strategy and eeked one out.  But that was lucky.

The missed assignments, the wide-open receivers, the lack of a consistent pass rush, the poor tackling (Hightower even went for the up high knockout hit instead of wrapping up), all of these things were still there. Nearly two and ½ months from the beginning of training camp and the Patriots Bend But Don’t Break Defense is broken.

Some of the fixes can come from practiced areas: problems of effort, communication breakdowns, and poor tackling technique.  But with the elite play and professionalism that we’ve seen from the players over their careers, it’s my belief that this is becoming a breakdown in play-calling, specifically on 3rd down and specifically in the 4th quarter.

3rd downs in the 4th quarter are the most important plays for any defense, those are the plays that silence opposing crowds, flip fields and end games. And through 5 games, it seems this is the albatross around the Patriots defensive coaching staff’s neck.

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Scouting Report: New York Jets

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The Patriots head to New Jersey to take on the Jets in a battle for first place in the AFC East this weekend. Both teams are 3-2 and it’s an unexpected competitive matchup that many thought would see a near-undefeated Patriots juggernaut slamming a tanking Jets team, but alas that storyline has been destroyed.

Let’s not get too carried away. Yes, the Jets have won three-straight, but it’s been over a who’s who of terrible NFL franchises including their last two against the Jags and Browns. Still, for a team that blew it all up and started over, they’re getting good play from some young players who should be eager and unafraid to play the Patriots in a game no one expects them to win.

Let’s take a quick look at five headlines about the 2017 Jets.

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Bending and Breaking: A Historical B-D-B Look at the 2017 Pats Defense

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It’s driven you insane hundreds of times at this point. The Patriots defense is picked apart by a supposedly mediocre offense until miraculously stopping them in the red zone and forcing a field goal. Some seasons it feels like it happens on the first drive of every single game.

Yes, this is the Bend-Don’t-Break, a mantra muttered by football-philes like myself who have bought into Bill Belichick’s philosophy that sound coverage and tackling can make up for not attacking a quarterback with blitzers on every down. The Patriots certainly pick their spots to blitz defensive backs, but generally their philosophy is about 11 guys all doing their jobs and it’s hard to argue with the results even if the stats don’t rank them near the top of the league.

What matters most of course is points, and the Patriots have ranked below 13th in the league in points-per-drive just twice before this season.

My statistical way to breakdown the Bend Don’t Break is to rank plays- and yards-per-drive (BEND) and points- and turnovers-per-drive (BREAK). While the results in 2017 are expectedly putrid they’re not exactly in uncharted territory and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.

Here’s a look at the Bend-Don’t-Break chart to see how the 2017 Pats stack up after five games.

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