PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Scouting Report: Atlanta Falcons

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Yeah, yeah Bill Belichick has sworn the Patriots players to not mention last year’s Super Bowl in preparation for this weekend’s rematch with the Atlanta Falcons, and while I usually try to ask myself “What would BB blog” that’s out the window as far as the next fews days. At least somewhat, because really it’s unlikely that there is all that much we can take away from that game back in February because, as you might remember, the Pats laid a giant turd on the field for three quarters.

Avoiding that kind of start will be imperative because as much as I’d love to whip up another comeback tee shirt, the odds of the Pats climbing out of a similar hole are less than likely.

Here’s some of what we know about the Falcons this year. They’re coming off two-straight AFC East losses, one to Buffalo 23-17 and last week’s to Miami 20-17. Both came at home which is mind boggling when you consider Matt Ryan coming off an MVP season and most of us thinking the Bills and Phins were going to be mostly rebuilding this year.

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First Down Problems for Pats Defense Continue

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After the first game of the 2017 season, a blowout loss to the Chiefs, I pointed out that it was first down where the Chiefs did most of their damage and prescribed simple improvement on first down as a key for a defensive turnaround.

Checking back in on first down now, after six weeks, there hasn’t been much improvement. In fact, for a defense mired near the bottom of the league in almost every category, their poor work on first down is some of the most glaring.

Here are the numbers from the past four years:

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Film Review: Pats vs. Jets Defense Edition

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One of my favorite parts of the week is when I get to sit down and watch the All-22 of the Patriots defense. It’s a soundless, emotionless journey into football land. I know the result, I know the post-mortem talking points and I can just sit back and take it all in for what it actually was.

After watching the Pats’ defensive performance against the Jets I feel actually better than I’ve felt all season long about the unit. Of course it was not perfect, but it was starting to look and feel like the usual Patriots defense. You know what that means… Bend Don’t Break.

Still cliches aside, the progress was really keyed by an excellent performance against the run, led by Malcom Brown and aided by a resurgent Alan Branch. When those two players are on, the Pats are dominating the line of scrimmage and that has a positive trickle down effect on the rest of the defense.

Yes, there were still plenty of mistakes, often by the rookies and new guys, but what we saw was that the defense could forget the last plays, the last drives and refocus on the current drive.

All in all I do think things are headed in the right direction. You need to look no further than the run defense jumping from 27th to 23rd in DVOA. There’s still a ways to go, but I do believe the defense should be primed to play well against the Falcons, who will surely have all their attention this week.

Here’s what else stood out from the film review.

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Film Review: Three Terrible Third Downs From the First Drive

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The Patriots defense was supposed to have turned a corner after winning in Tampa Bay. Instead they came out ten days later and had one hell of an ugly drive to start the game against the Jets. Yes, they partially righted the ship and came through on the final drive so it wasn’t as bad as we’ve seen this season, but it’s hard to play much worse on third down than they did on that opening drive.

With any more drives like this one the Patriots betting odds for the next game will drop like a rock facing last year’s MVP Matt Ryan. Third down is where games are won or lost and in this contest, especially out of the gate, the Patriots were out of sync and overthinking.

Let’s take a look at three of the third down conversions on that opening drive and try to figure out what was going on out there.

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Is 2015 Dion Lewis Finally Back?

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The Cardiac Pats ground out another win in their fourth-straight game in which the game hung in the balance on the final play. A lackluster effort overall marred the play of Dion Lewis, who ran all over the Jets front. Sunday marked Lewis’s first real impact in the 2017 season, as prior to this game, his season high in snaps was just 18, and had averaged just 6.5 touches per game. However, watching him on Sunday, it was hard not to harken back to the Dion Lewis we saw in the 2015 season, when he seized control of the Patriots backfield with elite performance after elite performance.

It is easy to forget just how incredible Lewis’s 2015 season was prior to tearing his ACL. To preface, it is obviously difficult to discern whether Lewis can ever regain the level of play he displayed in 2015, but if he has, I firmly believe he deserves a far heavier workload, and his stats back up my belief.

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Pats Posits: The Luxury of a Maddening Victory

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Doesn’t it feel like this is the year that NFL parity finally kicked in? Yes, the Patriots are 4-2 and we think we have plenty to complain about, but when you look around the league it’s hard to make any sense of it all. There were conference-altering injuries like Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone. There was the final undefeated team falling. And there was yet another week where some teams are up, some teams are down and no one knows who’s really good or bad.

Simply put, ironing out firm Super Bowl favorites at this point is near impossible. Every team has flaws and no one is safe from huge injuries. So before you jump off the bridge about the Patriots’ defense, just take a deep breath and realize that despite their flaws, there aren’t any flawless teams and well, we still have Tom Brady. You know, the winningest quarterback of all time in all regards now.

I still give the Pats a puncher’s chance against anyone, especially this year and that counts for a lot.

Here are the Posits on what was once again a maddening victory, which are quickly becoming the hallmark of the 2017 Pats.

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