PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

3 Reasons Patriots Will/Won’t Win Super Bowl 52

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As I said on Patshow yesterday, this is one of my favorite football weeks of the year. There’s no official opponent yet so there’s no stress, I can just sit back and watch the Wild Card games and enjoy some playoff football without my stomach in knots. Of course all that changes next week.

Can the Patriots win Super Bowl 52? Of course, but as we’ve seen in every playoff run, they’re going to need to catch some breaks here and there along the way. Maybe even make an impossible play or two. We know the 2017 team pretty well by now, well enough that it’s clear they’re somewhat of an anomaly as far as Patriots teams go. They’ve had some huge injuries this year, but unlike 2013 and 2015, it hasn’t really devastated them.

Those teams couldn’t get by the Broncos in the AFCCG in Denver.

Thee 2017 team still locked up homefield and their three losses are pretty much par for the course of a mostly-healthy season. A couple early season stinkers and a mid-season flat game. Otherwise the Patriots did what it took to win no matter who was hurt or playing. That will be the same approach in the playoffs in a one game scenario where we can throw our “feelings” about how good or bad the team is out the window.

I never in a million years would’ve thought the Pats would find themselves in a 28-3 hole in the Super Bowl, but in that one game situation they did what Bill Belichick’s teams always do, kept fighting and clawed their way back in.

Here are three reasons on both sides of the coin — why they will and why they won’t win the Super Bowl.

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Patshow #119: Jets/Regular Season Wrap, Playoff Preview

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Here’s our latest episode of Patshow! We wrap up the who-cares Jets game and more importantly the regular season and reflect on how we’re feeling about the potential (Kansas) playoff (City) opponents (Chiefs). It’s our 19th episode and the best yet! We think…

Pats Posits: The Season Starts Now

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Happy New Year! The Patriots finished off their regular season by beating the Jets in frigid temperatures and improving to 13-3 on the 2017 season. It wasn’t exactly an exclamation point finish, but it was effective and seemingly injury-free. The bottom line? The Pats now have homefield advantage for the third time in four years and the last two times they’ve had it they’ve won the Super Bowl.

I’m not going to dwell too much on the Jets game. I’m sure there are plenty of takes out there extrapolating all kinds of major implications from how the Pats performed in what were some pretty tough conditions. But I don’t think there’s much to take from it, though it does finish off a full 16-game sample and in that broader regard there’s plenty to talk about.

First, we have to start with Dion Lewis, who once again carried the team as you might hope a running back would do when there are tough conditions for the passing game. It’s just such a huge relief that we made it through the regular season without another catastrophic injury. Specifically — Tom Brady, Lewis, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are just absolutely critical to the Super Bowl chances and it looks like all will be ready to go.

With that group upright the Pats will be a hard out for anyone, no matter how the game unfolds.

Let’s take a moment to catch our breath as the Pats await to see who they’ll play next Saturday night in the AFCDG.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 17 vs. New York Jets

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Ah, the final gameplan of the season. These are always my favorite pieces of the week to write, and now as I sit here in California on my final day of vacation, preparing myself to return to the arctic cold of Boston, I can’t help but feel a bit relieved that the regular season prologue is nearly behind us.

Let’s be honest, at this point it’s hard to move the needle for Patriots fans. Looking back on 2017 it’s hard to recount much more than the Steeler game and the injuries. Wins are relief. Losses are catastrophic. Then we get to this point, where the Patriots will hopefully wrap up the first seed, and none of it really matters.

So here we are, staring down the barrel of another 13-3 season. A meltdown loss to the Jets at this point would be beyond surprising. Our 5-10 pals from New York adjacent are closing out a disappointing season, but they still gave the Pats trouble back in October, with the Pats getting a 4th down stop at their own 49 yard line to preserve the 24-17 win.

Considering the circumstances now, with the Pats needing a win to assure themselves of homefield advantage and the Jets ready to mail it in to the offseason, not to mention the bone chilling cold which this game will be played in, all signs point to the Pats rolling.

Here’s the gameplan…

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Breaking Down Patriots’ 3rd Down Nose Dive on Offense

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Third down is the most critical down in football and usually the Patriots are one of the best offenses in the league. In the last four seasons they ranked 6th (2014) and 4th (2016) when they won the Super Bowl and when they didn’t they ranked 16th (2013) and 11th (2015).

This season the loss of Julian Edelman loomed large for then third down offense. Edelman was then most targeted and reliable receiver with the game on the line. However early in then season the Pats didn’t fare too badly,

Through the first eight games, the Pats ranked 3rd on third down, converting 45.9 percent of their chances.

But since then they’ve fallen off dramatically, to the point where over the last four games they’ve converted just 30.2 percent of their third downs, second-worst in the league. All of Tom Brady‘s five interceptions in the last four games have come on third down.

These struggles are coming at the wrong time of year. Is this a critical flaw? Is there any hope in sight? Let’s take a deeper look.

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Malcolm Mitchell Back at Patriots Practice

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The surprising end-of-year Patriots news continued today with Malcolm Mitchell showing up in pads at practice. This means the Pats now have 21 days to activate him off of IR, though Mike Giardi reports that he could see game action as soon as this Sunday against the Jets in the season finale.

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Pats Sacks Up Despite Uneven Recent Defensive Performance

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The Patriots rode a dominant second half to their 12th win of the year against the Bills on Sunday, clinching a first round bye in the process and all but insuring that the AFC playoffs will come through Foxborough. While Dion Lewis stole most of the headlines after racking up 196 all-purpose yards, the Patriots front seven deserves a lot of credit for shutting down Buffalo in critical moments, most notably with Marquis Flowers’ takedown of Tyrod Taylor in the red zone on 4th down and Malcolm Brown’s 15 yard sack on the first play of Buffalo’s drive after the Pats had tied it at 16.

In total, the Patriots racked up six sacks, hit Taylor on four other occasions, and were consistently in Buffalo’s backfield. In fact, in the past five games, the Patriots have averaged 4.2 sacks per game, a rate that would put them above the NFL’s overall sack leaders, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have put up 3.5 sacks per game on average. Sure, the Jaguars have done this over the course of 15 games, and the Patriots sample size is just five games, but this still shows just how well the Patriots have been playing of late.

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