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An Independent Patriots Blog

Top 10 Patriots Draft Prospect Traits

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It felt like the NFL scouting combine snuck up out of nowhere this year. We’re no strangers to having a quick turnaround from the Super Bowl to the combine in just a few short weeks, but for some reason it flew by this year for me and honestly I’m kind of happy it did, and for more reasons that having a palate-cleansing good guy Bill Belichick appearance on NFL Network.

The advantage for me jumping into the draft now is that all the measurements and times are already recorded and readily available. I don’t touch the NFL draft until, well, now. I come at it with a fresh set of eyes and for the past seven seasons I’ve tried to hold myself to some level of accountability by sticking to the same formula — a 50 prospect draft board where I try to hit as many picks and signings as possible and one solitary mock draft.

 

Last year I got back on track after my worst Top 50 performance ever, when Cyrus Jones was the lone pick I hit, however I still haven’t hit a mock draft pick in two years after hitting at least two in four of my first five mock drafts. Something to shoot for this year when I release my mock a week or so before the draft.

Before I start jumping into prospect articles I thought a better place to start is with what I look for when “scouting” players. The advantage of focusing solely on one team’s drafts is that you start to get a sense of what they look for.

Here are the top 10 things I look for in Patriots draft prospects.

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Patriots Should Overstock Front Seven, Not Add Costly Corner

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My takeaway from the 2017 defensive season was that a high-priced secondary isn’t worth much if the front seven stinks, so I was surprised by reports connecting Aqib Talib and Richard Sherman to the Patriots. Yes, the Pats will probably (definitely) lose Malcolm Butler, but with Eric Rowe still there, Jonathan Jones returning and the veteran trio back at safety, maybe it’s best to not make a drastic move at cornerback for a second year in a row?

I know corners like Talib and Sherman are shiny objects, but I’d far prefer my Patriots shiny defensive objects to be defensive end and linebacker types. There was just so much attrition at those spots in 2017, basically losing four veteran edge players who made some of the biggest plays of the last few seasons. The position group needs to be flooded with as much camp competition as possible, to let the next Ninkovich emerge and also find out how good guys like Dietrich Wise, Adam Butler, Derek Rivers and Eric Lee really are.

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10 Patriots Free Agency Targets

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It’s March!! We will officially change the football calendar over to 2018 this month with the start of the new league year and free agency on March 15th. The Patriots have plenty of internal moves to make before hitting the external market, but here are 10 guys that stuck out to me based on what I see the needs being after they make some cuts and new deals.

I could see the Patriots letting Nate Solder test the market, but he’s got to be the first priority and domino to fall. From there the running back and defensive front seven positions must be addressed. There’s some uncertainty at tight end as well, as the endless search for a perfect compliment to Rob Gronkowski continues.

While the Pats have made plenty of recent splashy signings in free agency, these names are primarily in the Pats’ wheelhouse — promising players who disappointed or got hurt, and vets maybe looking for one last shot at a ring. If the Pats do make a big move I’d hope it would be in the defensive front.

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2017 Pats Left More Questions Than Answers

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The strange turns of the 2017 spilled over into the offseason once again yesterday with Tom E. Curran writing that Rob Gronkowski was in fact unhappy with football this season dating all the way back to training camp. In retrospect this article from Ryan Hannable is even more interesting.

There were rumors of Gronk wanting to retire, to maybe give WWE a try instead, just after the Super Bowl but I mostly dismissed those as just being end-of-disappointing-year grumblings. But when taken as part of the big picture of the Pats 2017 season and it’s hard not to think things were different behind the scenes this year, no matter how much you do or don’t want to buy into the old Seth Wickersham piece, the rumors about Brady, Guerrero, Kraft, Belichick, Malcolm Butler and now even Curran’s piece about Gronk.

For the most part, fans want to dismiss these things because distrusting the media is all the rage these days, but there’s so much smoke from a variety of places that it feels like something most definitely was off with this team. Here we are, 17 years in, and the closest kind of contemptuous season to 2017 came in 2009.

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Too Many Cooks Takes: Was First-Year Receiver a Disappointment?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfZkaVPwOPE

I’ve tried to take a break from the old cycle of “reporter makes dumb take, everyone responds with outrage thereby giving said reporter the attention they’re looking for” but it hasn’t been easy the last couple of days. The pinnacle was Adam Jones’ take that re-signing Brandon Bolden was somehow a bad thing.

Now I could go off on how stupid this is in a longform article — how the Patriots must build a 90-man roster and a beloved veteran who’s a special teams stud and can fill in at any running back role at a veteran minimum salary is an easy slam dunk, but again, I’m trying to break the cycle and the only way to do that is not to play their game. That take wasn’t even based in football reality, but another one kind of was.

That take came from Ben Volin, who I also ignore for the most part, that the Pats should extend Brandin Cooks or, if he won’t play ball, cut him outright and re-allocate his $8.5 million cap hit. This was a jumping off point to debate how good Cooks really was in his first year with the Pats. On paper, 65 catches for 1082 yards and six touchdowns looks pretty damn solid, especially for a first-year receiver with the Patriots.

However I do think it’s a more nuanced discussion than simply slapping down Cooks’ stats and feeling great about his season. His arrival as a “deep threat” raised expectations for the offense, but without Julian Edelman, some fundamental flaws came to light over the course of the season, that Cooks couldn’t solve.

Let’s take a deeper look and ask if a thousand-yard season can be a disappointment?

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Pats Should Focus on Front Seven Like 2012 Draft

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With yesterday’s allocation of a fourth-round compensatory pick, the Patriots now have their draft capital set:

  • 1.31
  • 2.43 (via SF)
  • 2.63
  • 3.95
  • 4.136
  • 6.208

The Patriots have had their struggles high in the draft lately. Only Malcom Brown (2015), Dont’a Hightower (2012) and Nate Solder (2011) remain as first- or second-round players since 2011 who are still on the team and important pieces. Otherwise there have been extensive misses and even those that they did hit on were traded away. Throw in the missing Deflategate pick and there’s no question, the Patriots need to hit on some talent in this spring’s draft.

The ideal model? When they traded up twice in 2012’s first round to add Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones. The impact of those two picks was immediately felt in the 2012 season and set the stage for what would become a Super Bowl-winning defense in 2014. That’s the kind of infusion up front the Pats need once again.

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Patriots Over Investment in Secondary Didn’t Pay Off

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I started blogging about the Patriots around the time that the old dynasty defense was dying. The 2007 defense squeezed the last bit of life out of Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and other supporting members who helped define the Pats teams of the 2000s. Then the retirements and departures began and I realized that if Tom Brady was to ever get four or more Super Bowls, Bill Belichick would have to build him a new defense, mostly from scratch.

It was fascinating to see them emerge from the depths of the 2010 defense that needed turnovers to survive, to the 2014 and 2016 Super Bowl-winning squads that made huge key plays under the most pressing circumstances. But there’s no denying that 2017 was a step backwards. Yes, injury attrition had a lot to do with that, but it was just as much a string of missed draft picks and decisions to cut ties with the picks they did hit on.

I really don’t want to kick a dead horse, but I can’t help but need to vent about how this all unfolded over the past few seasons. How did the Patriots go from having the most promising young defense in the league in 2014 to what’s looking like another rebuild in less than three seasons? But is this even a rebuild this time around? Let’s dive in.

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