https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfZkaVPwOPE
I’ve tried to take a break from the old cycle of “reporter makes dumb take, everyone responds with outrage thereby giving said reporter the attention they’re looking for” but it hasn’t been easy the last couple of days. The pinnacle was Adam Jones’ take that re-signing Brandon Bolden was somehow a bad thing.
Now I could go off on how stupid this is in a longform article — how the Patriots must build a 90-man roster and a beloved veteran who’s a special teams stud and can fill in at any running back role at a veteran minimum salary is an easy slam dunk, but again, I’m trying to break the cycle and the only way to do that is not to play their game. That take wasn’t even based in football reality, but another one kind of was.
That take came from Ben Volin, who I also ignore for the most part, that the Pats should extend Brandin Cooks or, if he won’t play ball, cut him outright and re-allocate his $8.5 million cap hit. This was a jumping off point to debate how good Cooks really was in his first year with the Pats. On paper, 65 catches for 1082 yards and six touchdowns looks pretty damn solid, especially for a first-year receiver with the Patriots.
However I do think it’s a more nuanced discussion than simply slapping down Cooks’ stats and feeling great about his season. His arrival as a “deep threat” raised expectations for the offense, but without Julian Edelman, some fundamental flaws came to light over the course of the season, that Cooks couldn’t solve.
Let’s take a deeper look and ask if a thousand-yard season can be a disappointment?
Let’s start with the good — namely Cooks’ electrifying game-winning touchdown catch against the Texans, his second of the game after a 42-yarder earlier. His five catches for 131 yards in that game would only be topped against the Raiders, where he had six catches for 149 yards and a touchdown. Cooks was also very good against the Jaguars in the AFC Championship, grabbing six catches for 100 yards, the first time he broke 99 yards since that Raiders game in mid-November.
The AFCCG also illustrated Cooks’ value in drawing pass interference penalties as he drew two key ones against the Jags. For the season Cooks drew five PI calls for 141 yards. He got downfield, made some explosive plays and played a big part in a number of wins. However he did have some downs as well.
Now let’s talk about where Cooks was less than stellar and it starts on third down, where Cooks caught just seven of 28 targets on the season for what was easily a team-worst 25 percent catch rate. So for those who want to argue Cooks was a disappointment, it’s at least somewhat understandable after many drives ended with him being targeted. If you’re only catching a quarter of the passes that come your way on the most critical down in football it’s not a good thing.
| Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt ▼ |
Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D |
| Danny Amendola | 41 | 28 | 68.3% | 393 | 1 | 25 |
| James White | 33 | 22 | 66.7% | 178 | 1 | 14 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 30 | 21 | 70.0% | 340 | 3 | 19 |
| Brandin Cooks | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 157 | 1 | 7 |
| Chris Hogan | 24 | 15 | 62.5% | 157 | 3 | 10 |
Cooks’ Super Bowl performance could’ve left a bad taste in people’s mouths as well, which included an incomplete target on the first offensive play of the game, a carry where he tried to hurdle a safety on third-and-2 but was stopped short, and finally a 23-yard catch where Cooks tried to do too much and got himself lit up and out for the rest of the game.
After years of complaining about the Dink and Dunk, or as I call it “The Scalpel”, Patriots fans long dreamed of another Randy Moss-esque deep threat and Cooks was the best at stretching the field vertically since Moss. But what we all discovered with Cooks in 2017 is that the offense can’t rely on deep threats and big plays to sustain drives. After Cooks went out in the Super Bowl the Patriots offense barely missed a beat.
Too many times when the offense sputtered in 2017 we saw Brady chucking up prayers to Cooks. Sometimes they were explosive plays, sometimes they drew pass interference but more often than not they fell incomplete. Including the regular season and playoffs, Cooks had the lowest catch rate (55.7 percent) of the top seven targeted receivers. Cooks was good, but it wasn’t immediate simpatico.
Edelman is the kind of player Patriots fans are used to loving. The guys who make the tough catches, who keep the ball moving and make big plays in the biggest moments. For comparison, Edelman has caught 94 of 135 third-down targets since 2013, a 69.6 percent catch rate.
Can we expect the same from a true X-receiver? And is it fair to judge Cooks by the same metrics when his role is actually quite different? All I know is that watching deep prayers fall incomplete for third down is just as frustrating as the old versions of the offense that could be stifled by crowding the line of scrimmage and pressing the receivers because there was no outside speed to stretch the defense vertically.
While it was a strong first season from Cooks in a role the Patriots have tried to fill for a longtime, he had his inconsistencies in some key moments that must be acknowledged as well. But the bottom line is that Cooks will be just 25 in September and the return of Edelman should compliment Cooks and open things up for him even more while taking some third down pressure off of him. Add in a full year in the system and Cooks’ desire to bounce back from a disappointing Super Bowl and he should top his first season’s performance in 2018.
Still I don’t think anyone could say Cooks or that role is absolutely vital to the Patriots offensive success in 2019 and beyond. The deep threat is a nice hood ornament as Cold Hard Football Facts used to put it, but getting Edelman/Amendola back and developing the next Edelman/Amendola is more critical base for the offense going forward. The Pats will pay Cooks this year, but how much they’re willing to pay for him and that role going forward will be a hot topic for debate through this season and into the 2019 offseason.
On average, how far downfield was Cooks on those 21 3rd-down throws that were incompletions – compared to how far downfield Amendola was on his 28 receptions?
I understand what you’re getting at but I think that goes back to the fact that it’s harder to sustain drives if you have to lean on a player like Cooks and his skillset. In conjunction with a dynamic underneath passing attack Cooks can be devastating, but I’d argue that those underneath attacking routes are more vital to the offense than a field-stretcher.
I think you’re both making valid but different points. MaineMan was implying, “It’s not fair to compare the two as Cooks was down field on his 3rd down attempts” and he’s right. Many of Cook’s 3rd down attempts were deep balls that would have gone to the house if caught. Alternatively, Mike you’re saying “attacking WRs who keep the chains moving are more valuable.” You’re right too. I think we’d all agree that Edelman/Amendola type players are core to the Pat’s offensive proficiency.
The thing is, 3rd down/moving the chains isn’t Cooks’ role. For the same reason we don’t punish Develin for not catching the deep ball, I’m not sure it’s fair to punish Cooks for not catching the short ball.
In a role heavy scheme like the Pats run, we should appraise the value of the players based on their contribution at their role and I’d argue on that metric, Cooks had a great first year.
Cooks could forego a bit of speed this offseason for some more size. He got pushed around too much in my opinion.
I think he can still be great.
I agree with your analysis of Cooks play. I like his play and attitude but his size greatly limits his ability to go up there and catch those high passes.
Confidence level of Malcolm Mitchell being on the 53 man roster?