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Five Stats to Define 2018 Patriots’ First Half

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One of my favorite things to do, especially now with half a season in the books, is stack this current Patriots team to previous teams to see what makes this one unique. Each year there are some strange outliers, either rapid improvement or decline that gives each squad their own little flare.

The 2007 team was an offensive juggernaut. The 2010 and 2011 teams gave up a ton of yards but managed it by getting a ton of takeaways. The 2017 defense, marred by injuries, was the lowest-ranked DVOA defense of the Belichick era.

Each team always has one or two interesting little nuggets that you’ll only get from someone who’s blogged about them exclusively for over a decade. So what has made the 2018 Patriots unique this far? Here are five stats where they stand out, for good and bad reasons.

1. Takeaways

The Patriots already have 16 takeaways this year, including 11 interceptions, 2nd best in the league, after being in the lower half of the league for the past three seasons. Their full 16-game totals from recent years:

  • 2017 – 18
  • 2016 – 23
  • 2015 – 21
  • 2014 – 25
  • 2013 – 29
  • 2012 – 41
  • 2011 – 34
  • 2010 – 38

Obviously, they’re on pace to destroy those stats which is especially interesting considering the top three safeties have all been the same guys. The dip in recent years is fascinating, especially considering that the defenses were overall much better than they were in 2010-2012. Takeaways are a fickle stat. Even when you get a ton in the regular season it’s no guarantee you get them in the playoffs. In fact, from 2010-2014 the Patriots produced ZERO takeaways in a season-ending game until Malcolm Butler‘s goalline interception in Super Bowl 49 changed everything. What’s clear is that this defense needs to prove they’re not over-reliant on turnovers like the early 2010’s teams were.

3. Giveaways

The flip side of the turnover coin is just as ugly as the takeaway numbers are pretty. Through eight games this season the Patriots offense has 13 giveaways. Compare that, a full-season projection of 26, to their recent totals:

  • 2017 – 12
  • 2016 – 11
  • 2015 – 14
  • 2014 – 13
  • 2013 – 20
  • 2012 – 16
  • 2011 – 17
  • 2010 – 10 (!!!!!!!!)

That’s right, they’ve already surpassed their totals from the last two seasons and are easily within striking range of the two before those. Of course, we know quite a few of these turnovers have been strange, tipped ball affairs. Or things like Sony Michel coughing it up as his knee got twisted up. I think it’s a safe bet the giveaways will continue to decline, especially as the Pats just turned in their first giveaway-free game of the season. One comparison though is to 2013 when the offense underwent similar turnover at key spots.

4. Offensive DVOA

We’re going to stick with the 2013 comparisons here because the offensive DVOA numbers have slipped this year in a similar way to how they did in 2013. In 2017, the offense was 1st overall, 1st in passing and 3rd in rushing in DVOA. This year they’ve dropped to 7th overall, 7th in passing and 10th in rushing. Not an insane drop to where the offense now stinks but the regression is clear and considering who they lost this offseason and who they’ve been without at times through the first eight games, it shouldn’t be unexpected.

The drop from 2012 to 2013 was similar:

  • 2012: 1st overall, 1st passing, 4th rushing
  • 2013: 4th overall, 7th passing, 6th rushing

Again, we’re splitting hairs here and the Patriots “reloading” on offense is far from a critical situation because of Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels. But these numbers do back up that this is a reloading year for the offense, at least to this point.

5. Special Teams DVOA

Since 2001, there have been just four seasons where the Patriots haven’t been ranked in the top-10 in Special Teams DVOA, an opponent-based measure of efficiency. In those four seasons, they ranked 16th (2002), 16th (2003), 12th (2004) and 12th (2009). They’ve been in the top five in seven seasons. However, this year they rank 20th through the first half of the season. Where’s that damage coming from? The kickoff and punt units are the biggest culprits.

  • FG/XP – 8th overall
  • Kickoff – 32nd overall
  • Kick Return – 4th overall
  • Punt – 28th overall
  • Punt Return – 26th overall

For a team that prides itself on special teams play, the Patriots simply aren’t getting it done outside of Cordarrelle Patterson returns and Stephen Gostkowski‘s field goals and extra points. The coverages on the kickoff and punt teams have been especially bad. This is extremely uncharacteristic of the Patriots and an often-ignored area that could really come back to bite them if they don’t get it together.