Sports Illustrated gave an early preview of their Super Bowl cover this week and as you can see below the headline matches what pretty much everyone has been writing/thinking: SHOOTOUT!
This week’s @SInow cover. pic.twitter.com/7QSBRYhWzW
— Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL) January 24, 2017
Yes, the Falcons have put up 80 points in their two playoff games combined and broke 38 points seven other times this season. The Patriots are no slouches either, having put up 70 points in their two playoff games. The opening over/under was 58.5, the highest over/under in Super Bowl history, but I wouldn’t go betting the over just yet.
Of course, this plays off the general media analysis that despite allowing the lowest points-per-game in the NFL this year, the Patriots defense is trash. You can’t accept a shootout prediction without tipping your belief that the Pats’ defense still hasn’t played a good quarterback even after Pittsburgh and Matt Ryan is going to be the one to expose them to the entire planet.
Though I’m not saying the Patriots won’t do their part in putting up 30-plus points on the Falcons’ defense, and who knows, they could singlehandedly get most of the points needed for the over. But I wouldn’t just assume the Pats defense will get shredded in a Super Bowl.
Let’s not forget the last two Super Bowls when Bill Belichick had to game plan for two “unstoppable” offenses. When he was with the Giants facing the Bills in Super Bowl 25, Belichick’s defense held the K-Gun offense to just 19 points. They had averaged a league-best 26.8 points-per-game that season.
In Super Bowl 36, the Pats were 14-point underdogs to the Rams, tied for second biggest underdogs in Super Bowl history. The Greatest Show on Turf averaged 31.4 PPG that season and scored just 17. Both times Belichick understood what was needed to slow down those offenses and had the pieces to do it.
Should we really just assume it’s going to be different this time? When the Patriots defense has met every challenge they’ve faced the last two months? When this is as experienced and healthy a group as Belichick has ever taken into a Super Bowl? I’m not saying the Falcons won’t move the ball, but I’m not convinced they hit 25 points, much less their league-best average of 33.8.
Aside from that, the Super Bowl can be entirely unpredictable. Super Bowl 38 had the second-lowest over/under in two decades at 37.5 and the two teams exploded for 61 points. Or how about Super Bowl 42, when the record-setting Patriots offense was held to just 14 points?
I think the Patriots defense is far better prepared for the Falcons offense, especially at a neutral site, than anyone is giving them credit for at this point. But don’t tell them that. Let them hear how they’re going to be powerless to stop Atlanta. That will only result in the kind of rock solid performance I’m already expecting.
100% agree. People see explosive offenses and think they can’t be stopped but Belichick has been doing just that for 30 years. Pats pull away in second half. 35-24.
Great article, Mike. I sincerely hope the Pats defense keeps the chip on their shoulder they’ve had all year and set out to prove something in this game. Reading the headlines, neither media nor fans (Pats fans included) seem to believe the Pats have an elite defense, despite what they’ve achieved so far this year. It seems the Pats only win because of Brady or because the other team messes up or doesn’t execute. Even the Pats win in SB XLIX was considered “lucky” and the result of a stupid play call. As I fan who for years has wanted this team to have an elite defense again (and not rely so much on Brady all the time), it’s frustrating. Shutting down the Falcons “unstoppable” offense would shut up a lot of people.
on point Mike.