Julian Edelman is one of Tom Brady’s closest friends. So naturally, Brady was one of the first people in the Medical tent after Edelman was carted off following a knee injury. The New England Patriots dominated last Friday night’s preseason game against the Detroit Lions. But the injury Edelman suffered just two minutes into the game left a dark cloud over the otherwise impressive (in the first half) win.
Naturally, the Patriots odds for the 2017 season are unlikely to be drastically affected. But Edelman’s importance to the offense, especially in some of the biggest moments has already been well documented.
It is likely that the Patriots will get by without him. The 9.8 targets per game average the shifty receiver posted last season is impressive. But the Patriots have plenty of players on offense that they can rely on in Edelman’s absence.
If we dig further into Edelman’s numbers, his value becomes even more apparent. In the second half of games since 2013 where the Patriots are losing or up by one score or less, Edelman has been the most targeted receiver. He caught 14 of 22 targets in those situations, converting 11 into first downs.
That’s then kind of critical receiver Edelman is, but this isn’t unprecedented territory for the Patriots.
In 2012, the Patriots led the league on third down, converting 48.4 percent into first downs. But after that season the Patriots lost just about every top third down receiver they had, a staggering 70 of 93 third down catches. Wes Welker (30 third down catches), Danny Woodhead (13), Aaron Hernandez (12) and Brandon Lloyd (11) were the top four and all of them were gone from New England in 2013.
The Patriots fell to 12th on third down in 2013, converting 39.8 percent into third downs. It was then that Edelman emerged as the vital third down threat we know him as today, matching Welker’s 30 third-down catches from the previous year, while Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen also emerged.
The 2016 Patriots were second on third down at 46.7 percent. Between Edelman and Martellus Bennett the offense lost 37 percent of their third down receptions. Significant yes, but still a far cry from the 75 percent they lost in 2013.
And let’s face it, the offense is so much more stacked with talent now. Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell and Amendola are far better than Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and whoever else they had picked up off waivers that week.
There will be an adjustment period without Edelman, and they could struggle if the hot receivers aren’t getting open quickly enough. Brady is devastating when blitzed, but without his favorite “quick open” target teams maybe be inclined to test his chemistry with some less-trusted targets.
The Patriots will do what they always do — focus on who’s still there and scheme to cover any potential weakness that might arrive. They’ve seen far worse turnover with far less in the cupboard and they’ll be fine in 2017.
I feel bad for Edelman more than anything. I hope he still participates in the banner ceremony, but I would understand if he didn’t.
I do have faith in BB and Brady though. The Patriots survived Brown’s, Branch’s and Welker’s departure. Brady had special connections with all of them. He also nearly went the Super Bowl with Reche Caldwell as the #1. Hoping it’s still a great season offensively given it’s just the start of the season!