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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 vs. Buffalo Bills

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This is it. The last Brady-less game of the 2016 season (we hope). Yes, there are plenty of questions surrounding who will be under center for the Pats in this one, but ultimately this is a tepid Bills offense that should never ever waltz into Foxboro and pull out a win, even we had good ole’ Tommy Hodson back there taking snaps.

Rex Ryan always makes things interesting and despite just a 4-11 record against the Pats, the average margin of victory in the last six games against Rex is just 4.7 points. Last year the Pats beat Ryan’s Bills by 40-32 (week 2) and 20-13 (week 11). So despite the records, this game will probably be interesting.

What has made them most interesting is Rex’s schemes against Tom Brady. Recently this has involved disguising his blitzers while dropping a majority of players into zone coverage. Often times this has slowed Brady down, but as Jeff Howe points out, Brady has still done as well as anyone (which isn’t saying all that much considering the shitlist that is quarterbacks who faced Rex at least five times):

Brady has completed 60.1 percent of his passes against Ryan’s Jets and Bills for an average of 282 yards per game to go along with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 91.2 passer rating against Ryan’s Jets (2009-14) was the highest among all quarterbacks to face him at least five times.

So now what happens with (probably) Jimmy Garoppolo or (possibly) Jacoby Brissett? The Bills have plenty of defenders who can wreck a gameplan, starting with Kyle Williams. The Patriots will need a sound offensive game from whoever their QB is to keep the Bills at bay.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense finally showed what they’re capable of against the Houston Texans, pitching their first meaningful shutout since 2009. Now they must contain Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy. If the Patriots defense is truly going to live up to their perceived talent level, this is another game they should be gunning for a shutout. Expectations are that high.

Here’s the gameplan for capping off the Brady suspension in style, with a win over our old pal Rexy, (who’s coming off a win btw)…

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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 3 vs. Houston Texans

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<a rel=Are you enjoying this Patriots season so far? We’re two games in and it seems like our Patriots Nation is on fire, raging against itself in an endless cycle of small-picture angst . The hot taeks are rolling in faster than we can even keep up with them. Why haven’t the Patriots signed a quarterback!? The hubris of Bill Belichick! And now he’s going to force Jimmy Garoppolo to play with one arm!!

Yes, the Patriots are driving many people mad this week and it’s quickly feeling like us against the world once again.

And if all that wasn’t enough there’s a glowing puff piece on the front page of the New York Times website this morning about Exponent. You know, the company that told us second hand smoke wasn’t dangerous and that the Patriots balls were deflated .02 PSI below where the Ideal Gas Law said they should be. I’m going to resist going down that rabbit hole since we’re so close to end of Deflategate, but let’s just say there’s no specific mention of the two biggest criticisms of Exponents work — the lack of any timing element and the assumption that referee Walt Anderson was wrong in remembering which gauge he used. Read Florio’s takedown of it if you want more on this. I don’t.

Let’s try to talk about real football. Although if it wasn’t clear before, it sure is now — we’re going to be hearing about Bradoppolo non-stop for the next year-and-a-half, at least. Of course this is an unheard of “problem” in the NFL, having two very good quarterbacks and having to choose between them. It’s a fascinating story but one that I prefer to put on the backburner until the offseason. Meanwhile most of the media will waste the football season wondering “WHAT WILL THEY DO????”.

In a little over a week Tom Brady will be back and the New England Patriots 2016 season will truly begin. It’s nice to know Garoppolo has a lot of promise, but there’s plenty to play out over the next four months before we have to really worry about what will happen in the future.

Here’s the gameplan for a Texans team looking to come into Foxboro to make a statement win. Well, a statement win that would have a big Jacoby Brissett-sized asterisk.

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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 vs Miami Dolphins

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It’s Week 2 already as the Patriots face their AFC East rival the Miami Dolphins in New England’s home opener of the 2016 season. The Patriot are still smarting over a Week 17 loss in Miami last season, with Bill Belichick coming right out and mentioning the “sickening” loss in his weekly press conference.

The Dolphins have a new coach in Adam Gase, and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Coming off an ugly loss to the Seahawks, a win in New England would get the Dolphins season immediately back on track. However Miami hasn’t won in Foxboro since 2008’s Wildcat game.

Do they have another innovative gameplan to pull off the upset? Here my Patriots gameplan to prevent it…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4xKSZaHyBA

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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals

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Patriots Cardinals GameplanThe long cold offseason is finally over. Patriots football is back this Sunday as the Pats travel to Arizona and face a stiff test from a Cardinals team that was one of the best in the NFC last season.

Of course the center of the media coverage is Jimmy Garoppolo, embarking on the first of his four game 2016 tour. Garoppolo was just okay this preseason, but didn’t have a turnover, and that might be the most important key to success for him over this first quarter of the season.

While everyone’s talking about Garoppolo — how he really feels about Tom Brady, how he feels about Tom Brady having an enormous banner hanging over the home stadium, how he feels about Tom Brady not being around to give him advice — what I’m most interested in this weekend is the Patriots defense.

Simply put, they are stacked. And if Jimmy gives them the chance, they can win every one of these four games.

Here’s the gameplan for the Cardinals…

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Review/Preview: 5 Things We Watched & 5 Things to Watch

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Last week, I asked these questions about the Point-least Game ever. Here’s what I came up with for answers.

terrance-knighton-nfl-new-england-patriots-minicamp-1

Credit: Winslow Townson – USA TODAY Sports

1. What the hell is happening on defense, specifically at LB?
A: Um, a whole lot. For a more philosophical look read Mike’s piece on BB’s defense 2.0. Also Doug Kyed touched on it in his mailbag.
This defense is jacked with talent, more importantly versatile talent, quick, smart, instinctive guys who will play through the whistle. Shea McClellan looks the part, he was in on nearly everything when he was out there. In front of him, the DTs were able to push into the running lanes early and often; really nice depth there and I think Alan Branch could be cut. Also Pot Roast’s gut is as advertised.

How is that guy a pro athlete?

The player that I was most excited to see was Kamu Grugier-Hill. He looked lost, not a surprise for a 6th round pick, but multiple times he was too anxious to go after his coverage assignment, even if they were staying in to block and even when his assignment was pointed out to him, he got caught up in the wash somehow. His coverage skills apparently stand out in practice, but he doesn’t possess the size at LB to make significant contributions in the running game, as evidenced by his several back-tapping assisted tackles. It is an intriguing enough idea (a coverage specialist LB), but the dude needs time. And protein.

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New England Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

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This is the tenth AFC Championship the Patriots have gone to under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but for me this one feels different. I’ve touched a lot upon how many things would come full circle for TB/BB with a win this weekend, and maybe that’s why I’ve been grumpy and had trouble sleeping all week.

To send Manning off into the sunset, along with the disappointing previous playoff losses in Denver, would truly be poetic for the Brady/Belichick Dynasty. What else is really hanging over their head? And what better way to possibly end Manning’s career than the way it started in his first AFC Championship in 2003, losing to the Patriots?

The Pats are favored. They’re a totally different team than the one that had a 21-7 lead in the fourth-quarter before Harper’s Muff opened the door for a Brock Osweiler comeback. And the Broncos have some key pieces back as well, but the biggest focus is of course Peyton Manning. He’s torn my heart out far too many times to write him off, no matter how much of a shell of his former self he is.

Most of the Patriots confidence comes from how the two teams looked in the divisional round. The battered Steelers had little trouble moving the ball in Denver and once again it took a late-game turnover to give the Broncos new life. The Patriots looked healthy and formidable. But this is all about one game, where anything can happen on any given play.

There’s plenty to digest in this one, here’s my gameplan.

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Offensive Gameplan

Spread ‘em out and light ‘em up. We’re under no false impressions about what makes this offense go: 12/11/87. When those three are in sync the Pats are near-impossible to stop. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be flawlessly clicking for 60 minutes on Sunday and that’s where things get interesting.

When you look at what the Patriots have done in recent history against this Denver defense, it’s hard to think they’ll struggle to move the ball. They’ll have their moments where they sputter, but the biggest key is finishing in the red zone with touchdowns. That’s what got Pittsburgh beat last week.

You wonder if Wade Phillips will juggle some things up, such as putting Talib on Gronk as Greg Bedard suggested. Chris Harris is reportedly a gametime decision and he’s a huge piece to Denver’s secondary. Without him, there will be plenty to attack, especially with Edelman.

But once again the dark horse is James White, who still seems poised for a huge game. I thought that last week as well, and he did chip in a 29 yard catch and run, but had just three targets and one carry.

The scary thing is that it’s all right there for the taking, but the only thing that can stop the Patriots offense is the Patriots. We’ve licked our chops before games like this plenty of times – knowing the defense was there to be had, only to have a fluky early play that changes the course of the game or puts the Patriots on their heels for one reason or another.

So if this game is straightforward, the Pats should in all likelihood win. But if it gets weird – turnovers, strange deflections and bounces (things that have often happened in Denver to the Pats), the Broncos will be sitting and waiting to pounce on any mistake just as they have all season long.

Score early. Score often. And don’t stop scoring until the clock hits zero. If they hit 30 points I don’t think the Broncos can match, but it’s going to take clean and fearless play. That starts with a strong start.

Defensive Gameplan

Hightower and Collins. Those might be the only two guys I care about in this game. If they can suck it up and be effective for 60 minutes, I like the Pats’ chances to shut down the Broncos offense. Or at least hold them under 20 points.

If they’re ineffective or have to leave the game for Jonathan Freeny and Darius Fleming, the door will be wide open for the Broncos to start gashing us.

The defensive game plan isn’t all that different than last week, when the Pats could just focus on the run and the short zones and force the quarterback to hit long passes to have success. The bonus is no one needs to spy Peyton so that puts an extra body in the flat to destroy dump offs and crossers, or blitz. That player is likely Jamie Collins.

It’s strange that this is the exact opposite approach the Pats took against Peyton Manning as recently as last season. Now instead of daring the Broncos to run you’re daring them to pass.

I am okay with the same matchups we saw in pass coverage last time – Ryan on Thomas, Butler on Sanders. I know Ryan has had some struggles against bigger receivers recently, but honestly as long as he doesn’t give up any big gainers to Thomas, the Pats will be okay. He must tackle and not give up the yards-after-catch.

The small but important part are Denver’s third and fourth receivers matching up with Justin Coleman. Coleman was excellent last week against the Chiefs, but a poor performance this week and the Broncos could sneak out a couple big plays that help their cause.

Still I think it’s an eight-man box game, with Chung down low to help snuff out the run game. Having seen the zone blocking scheme once already is a good advantage for the defense, especially rookie Malcom Brown. That might be the only big takeaway from the first matchup.

It’s hard not to think this game will come down to the defense needing a stop as much as every Pats fan would love a stress-free blow out. The Pats got two game-ending interceptions last year on their way to the Super Bowl title and they very well could need one this weekend. But the bigger the lead the bigger the pressure on Peyton Manning to start throwing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats race out to double digits to see Brock Osweiler make an appearance.

But again, Hightower and Collins are the key. If they’re in, the Broncos will struggle to run and that is the engine of their offense. But what is of most concern is the defense’s ability to continue to stop the run in the fourth quarter when the Denver air starts to play a factor. By that point there must be a significant lead. Because if there isn’t, and Hightower/Collins are running out of steam or not on the field, the momentum could take a serious turn in the Broncos’ favor.

Playing Peyton is not about fooling him. He’s going to know what you’re trying to do. Now, the Pats can show their hand and make Peyton beat them with hard throws. This is why man defense is so vital against him and why the Pats were trounced in 2013 once Talib went down. Reading zones, throwing to open areas, that’s what Manning can still do. But force him to throw into a tight window, where it will be contested, is the perfect thing for this Denver passing offense.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Collins and Hightower: They are the Gronk and Edelman of the defense and with the way the matchup is lining up, they might even be the more important duo when it comes to getting a win this weekend. Both are battling injuries, but if they can suck it up for this game they’ll have two weeks to rest. There’s nothing more important than keeping the Broncos’ run game in check. Collins could be a big factor with his pass rush. Think about it, we want Peyton Manning to throw on us!! Strange days.

2. Brady be Brady: If Brady is on in this game it’s hard to see the Patriots losing. Can’t imagine a 3TD, 0 INT performance where the Broncos magically go toe-to-toe with the Pats’ offense. Now how does Brady get off his game traditionally? By getting away from what he does best. That shouldn’t be a problem this week. There’s nothing to overthink. And unless the Broncos have some special new defensive twists, the Pats will move the ball. This is a legacy game for Brady and Belichick and I hope/expect they’ll both be at their best.

3. Offensive Balance: The Steelers had more success on the ground than we expected last week, and it’s vital that the Pats, in their desire to let Brady be Brady, don’t become one-dimensional. If the Pats can get a lead, they must start to shorten the game to strangle the Broncos chances. That’s why a Steven Jackson-led ground attack in the second half is just what we need. Jackson has shown good burst but just hasn’t found the holes just yet. If the Pats are to get to the Super Bowl Jackson will be vital in finishing off Denver.

4. Tackle: A simple fundamental thing the Patriots usually excel at, as demonstrated against the Chiefs last week. Wrap up and tackle the backs and receivers. Don’t give them YAC. Punish them, especially Thomas and Sanders and their mistakes will only compound. Make them earn every yard. Because no one is convinced this Broncos team can win a tight game that isn’t handed to them with a turnover. They’ve lived on the edge all season long and pulled out more than they lost. The more they’re hit, the more they have to earn, the more I see them deflating from the moment.

5. 60 Minutes: This is always a key to a playoff game. We’ve seen far too many Patriots games that don’t go exactly as expected. Ones that come down to the last play and take everything the Pats got. But we know the Patriots never flinch and are incredibly patient. If only their fans could be as well. There have been plenty of fluky moments over the years in Denver… bad bounces, bad calls, bad decisions. The Pats must keep the hammer down regardless and we know they will. We can’t just expect them to show up and be handed the conference championship. They’re going to have to earn every first down and point.

Prediction: Patriots 31, Broncos 17

New England Patriots Gameplan: AFC Divisional Round vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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The 2015 season is finally here!! At least that’s what it feels like, but even this week we’ve had to deal with the Chandler Jones situation and Gronk suddenly having problems with his knee again. When will it end?

Nothing is ever simple or easy with the Patriots, but somehow they usually are able to fend off all distractions and problems and put up a great fight no matter who the opponent is.

That will be put to the test this week against a Chiefs team that hasn’t beaten themselves nor been beaten by anyone else in three months. I know all the crap that Andy Reid gets for game management stuff, but he deserves plenty of credit and we know the respect that Belichick has for him.

What’s scary to me about the Chiefs is they have a lot of those elements needed to knock off the Pats. In many ways they remind me of the 2009-2012 Ravens, though I wouldn’t say they’re quite as fierce. That Ravens team knew how to take the Patriots to the limit, if not totally dominate them like the first half of the 2009 Wild Card game or the second half of the 2012 AFC Championship.

Still, the Chiefs have some injury issues of their own and that could really limit what they can do depending on who can go and who can’t.

For the Patriots it all comes down to one big SUCK IT UP FOR THREE GAMES. How seamlessly can guys like Edelman, Hightower and Vollmer step back in? Is Gronk really hobbled? 

As I’ve been saying for weeks now, we just don’t know who the 2015 Patriots really are. Well, we’re about to find out Saturday night and that’s both exciting and scary.

Here’s the gameplan to get back to the AFC Championship for the fifth-straight year.

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Offensive Gameplan

Welcome to the great unknown. Who doesn’t have any question marks outside of Tom Brady in this offense? I can’t think of a single player that I know what to expect from.

The who-knows running backs – Steven Jackson and James White
? The walking wounded – Julian Edelman
, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, Sebastian Vollmer, Josh Kline? The sub par season guys – Brandon LaFell, Marcus Cannon, Bryan Stork? The rooks – Shaq Mason, David Andrews, Tre Jackson?

I can’t recall ever going into the playoffs with this many question marks and that muddies the projection of what they can and will do.

So the offensive gameplan is simple really – get back to what makes the old Patriots offense work. Edelman on the quick catch routes and Gronk up the seam. Amendola underneath. LaFell on some screens and down the sideline.

That’s what makes this offense work and they just haven’t had any of the pieces to even attempt it in a couple months.

But the true unknowns, for both us and the Chiefs, are Jackson and White. I can’t imagine Jackson running roughshod all over a very good Chiefs front, but I can see him picking up some key 3rd-and-shorts.

No, I think this is a White game in the same way Shane Vereen was under the radar in 2012 until the divisional game against the Texans and then it was like “where’s this version of Vereen been?”

White was the only player to consistently make things happen when the injuries started happening to Edelman, Amendola and Gronk. And with that trio back, things should finally open up for White in a way we haven’t seen yet.

So for all the talk of Edelman et al’s returns, it might James White who does the most damage.

Defensive Gameplan

Fundamentals. Fundamentals. Fundamentals. I can’t stress it enough. This isn’t one of those games where the Pats will live or die whether or not they get pass rush pressure. Those are the games everyone is used to in big spots.

No, this game is all about DO YOUR JOB. And with the veteran defenders we have, I feel pretty good that the defense will turn in a winning effort in this one.

Kansas City’s offense is in many ways a lot like the Patriots. They have far more gimmicks, but getting the ball to the open guy and letting him make plays is the foundation of what they do. There’s just a lot more read option, QB keepers, bootlegs, misdirection kind of stuff and that will stress an undisciplined defense.

That’s why the Pats got throttled last year. They were sloppy. They bit on the misdirection. They were missing tackles. They were losing contain. If that’s the defense that shows up Saturday night, it could very well get ugly once again.

But I trust that the Patriots defense will show up and play fundamentally sound because that’s who they are and that’s what Belichick has molded this defense into more than anything else.

The key player? Dont’a Hightower. The Chiefs can simply not be allowed to establish a consistent running game and Hightower is the biggest piece of the run-stopping puzzle. 

The advantage the Pats have is that they shouldn’t be forced to stop the run from their sub-package with a light box. They should be in their “regular” 4-3 defense with Patrick Chung in box because the Chiefs don’t have the kind of weapons on the outside to force the Pats into nickel and dime unless they want to be.

I see Logan Ryan on Chris Conley (or Maclin if he plays), Malcolm Butler on Albert Wilson and McCourty playing true centerfield behind them. That leaves the eight man box to deal with Travis Kelce, who I expect to be taken out of the game by a combination of Chung/Collins/Hightower and perhaps Jordan Richards on pure passing downs, and the running game.

Alan Branch, Malcolm Brown and Akiem Hicks need to be at their best as well against the Chiefs running backs, clogging the middle and not getting too far upfield.

The final piece of the puzzle is Alex Smith’s running ability. The Patriots did a great job last year in the Super Bowl against Russell Wilson, keeping him in the pocket and fogging his reads. Wilson would tuck the ball to run but there was nowhere to go. Same thing here with Smith.

If the Patriots’ defense tackles well, and plays disciplined I see the odds firmly in their favor in this game.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Defensive Fundamentals – I’m sorry to hit this again but it’s just so critical. If the Patriots contain Alex Smith and tackle well they will be fine. If they’re over-pursuing, missing tackles and trying to do too much, they’ll play right into the Chiefs’ hands. Boil it down and this is simply winning the physical battle. The Pats have the defensive pieces to do it and I have confidence they will.

2. Open Things Up For White – We know the Pats need Edelman, but I don’t think it’s smart to think he’s going to come in, catch 10 balls and take a bunch of big hits and be that same old Jules we know and love. No, the advantage of having Edelman back, even without the ball in his hands, is that the Chiefs will have to respect him and that alone does more than Keshawn Martin would do even if he caught a bunch of passes. The trickle down effect of all the attention Gronk and Edelman will get should be that James White often gets lost in the wash. He’s very much under the radar but this could be a breakout game for him. And I wouldn’t be opposed to some Steven Jackson screen passes either. Jackson likely doesn’t have the playbook knowledge to do it all, but they need to get him some touches that aren’t just running into the Chiefs brick wall front.

3. Special Teams Play Special – We saw it last week with the Chiefs returning the opening kickoff for a TD that they have game-changing ability on special teams. And we’re all well aware of the Patriots various snafus on special teams over the season. This could very well be where the game is won or lost and I’d expect the Pats to use plenty of veterans in key spots in the kicking game to ensure a mental breakdown doesn’t happen. Remember the Jets upset in 2010 got a huge boost from the second-year Patrick Chung’s fake punt attempt. Winning the special teams battle is vital.

4. Get the Lead – The Chiefs are not built, nor do they have the depth, to mount a major comeback if they get in a hole. No, they’re designed to get the lead and keep the lead with their ball control offense. The Pats must must must come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. A slow start could be a death sentence. Win the toss. Defer. Get off the field. Put points on the board. That’s the start we want.

5. 60 Minutes – No matter what happens the one thing I know is that the Patriots will fight the entire game. There is plenty we don’t know about this team, but this is one thing we can be sure of. Whether they’re in a huge hole quick or race out to a lead, the playoffs are about playing the entire game. Last year’s divisional game against the Ravens is the perfect example. I was shocked the Pats came out so flat and get into not one, but TWO 14-point holes. Whatever circumstances that led to that were hopefully corrected this year.  The Patriots know firsthand what the Chiefs are capable of but they don’t have the same mystique the Ravens held over them. Regardless of how things unfold, it’s going to take a full game’s effort to go back to the AFC Championship.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Chiefs 13