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Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 at Buffalo Bills

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The Patriots are back on the road this weekend, in the middle of playing five-of-six away from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Of course when you’re undefeated on the road and haven’t lost there since late in the 2015 season maybe it isn’t such a bad thing.

The Patriots odds for Sundays game are once again unnervingly high.

This is arguably the toughest divisional game remaining this season. Though the Bills stumbled mightily two weeks ago with a sudden decision to yank Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo got back on track with a solid win over the Patriot-defeating Chiefs in Kansas City. That’s never an easy task. A win over the Patriots would put the Bills back in the playoff contender category and we’ve seen plenty of tight ones in Buffalo to expect a good game.

The Patriots’ biggest opponent in recent weeks has been their own injuries. That’s just where we’re at with this dynasty now. Staying healthy is all that really stands between them and how high their Super Bowl expectations are, and last week they were hit hard again, losing Nate Ebner and Martellus Bennett for the season. Luckily injuries to key cogs Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy do not appear to be serious.

Can the Pats keep their 13-game road win streak and seven-game overall win streak intact while putting an iron grip on the AFC East title? Here’s the gameplan to make it happen.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins

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The Patriots return home after two weeks high above sea level and two impressive wins that have put them back atop the conversation of Super Bowl contenders. Despite numerous injuries to critical players the Pats have recalibrated and look like their same old dominant selves even without heart and soul players like Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower.

Now the Patriots have just six games left and five of them are inside the AFC East, starting with this weekend’s matchup against the 4-6 Miami Dolphins, whom the Patriots will face twice in the next three weeks. After a 4-2 start the Dolphins have lost four straight, including twice that they’ve given up 40 or more points.

What has the Patriots’ season devolved to? It’s become all about A) staying healthy and B) beating the Steelers in a few weeks. AFC East teams do tend to play the Patriots closer than expected, but if we’re just going off expectations the Patriots shouldn’t lose more than one game the rest of the season.

What the Pats need to do to put an iron grip on their ninth-straight AFC East title in the gameplan.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 vs. Oakland Raiders in Mexico City

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The Patriots high-in-the-sky two-game road trip continues this weekend, as New England goes from last week’s game against the Broncos at 5000 feet above sea level, to a week of practice in Colorado Springs at 6000 feet above sea level and now on to Mexico City, which is 7000 feet above sea level to face the Raiders.

Before the season this looked like a potential AFC Championship preview, but the Raiders haven’t quite lived up to expectations, losing five of their last seven. The Pats and Raiders are similar teams in that their offenses are good (NE 1st DVOA, OAK 3rd DVOA) and their defenses have been at the other end of the spectrum (NE 30th DVOA, OAK 32nd DVOA). Usually all those things kind of cancel out and what we’re left with is: Tom Brady vs. the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL.

But it isn’t exactly a slam dunk. Oakland is better than their record indicates and have shown good resiliency. Nowhere was that more apparent than against the Chiefs when the Raiders had a miraculous last drive that featured two chances at the end zone with time expired. With the game coming at significant elevation, and with unknown field conditions, there are some x-factors that could play into things.

Simply put, the Patriots cannot afford to let the Raiders hang around in this one, because they can sling it when their backs are against the wall. The young Oakland team will see this game as a huge opportunity for them to make their presence in the AFC and NFL felt after a poor start. If it was in Oakland I’d like the Raiders’ chances more, but an experienced New England team, that has been practicing close to altitude all week should be extremely well-prepared and focused on this game.

What the Pats need to do to get that eighth win of the season and finally descend from the clouds back home in the gameplan.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 at Denver Broncos

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After nearly two weeks off the Patriots are finally back in action this Sunday night on national television against the Denver Broncos. The weather has turned cold, the clocks have turned back and all of a sudden it feels like the 2017 NFL season has gotten real.

The Patriots have had one of those years where injuries strike early and often, but Thursday’s addition of Martellus Bennett was just the kind of spark they needed coming off the bye. It was a bit surprising to see the Pats inactive at the trade the deadline, so the Bennett move seems like the perfect one, both on the field and off it. Now the Pats play back-to-back AFC West games, and will remain in Colorado before traveling to Mexico City to face the Raiders.

These will be two really good challenges that tell us a lot about the 2017 Patriots. They’ve had the bye week to focus in on maximizing their strengths and hiding their weaknesses, and it was also a chance to get healthy. Stephon Gilmore should be back, while Eric Rowe is making progress. Unfortunately the bye week was not enough time for Malcom Brown, Chris Hogan and Marcus Cannon, as all missed practice this week and are unlikely to play. Those are three significant absences against the Broncos, and given the travel schedule, very likely the Raiders as well.

Playing in Denver has always seemed to give the Pats trouble. Even when they win, it’s never pretty. Still, winning there last season was the kind of win that got the monkey of 2015 off their back and sparked the team on to a Super Bowl win. Even though the Broncos aren’t atop the AFC, they’re still going to give the Pats hell, and pulling out a win there is always something to build off of.

Here’s the gameplan to get win number seven and start the second half of the season out right.

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Patriots Gameplan: Who Are the 2017 Pats?

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Ahhh, the bye week. A time to relax and reflect without a football game to worry about.

The 2017 campaign so far has been interesting to say the least. Let’s face it, they’re always interesting in unexpected ways. But the headline, as always, are injuries. Injuries define NFL seasons now, and the Patriots are not immune and this year they’ve been hit as hard as ever.

Usually injuries are the only thing that stands between the Patriots and a last-possession game in the Super Bowl that could go either way. In 15 seasons together, Brady and Belichick have played in AFC title game 11 times.

2005 was one of the years they bowed out in Denver. That team had critical injuries (Matt Light, Rodney Harrison) and was one of Belichick’s worst Patriots defenses. But even then the problem in 2005 was not getting a bye. If that Bronco game was in New England it probably would’ve had a different outcome. In 2009, there was the backbreaker injury to Wes Welker in the last meaningless game. In 2010, it was the Jets bouncing back from a 45-3 beatdown to execute the perfect game that exposed a flawed defense that had survived on turnovers.

That was the last time the Pats weren’t playing in the conference championship game, seven long years ago.

My point is this — Does this Pats team have some of the injury issues those teams had? Yup. Will their (currently improving) defense be exposed at home by the right team? We’ll see.

Losing Rob Ninkovich, Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower says it all. Those guys were the playmakers of the last four seasons. The guys who made big plays in big moments, and that isn’t easy to replace.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Just when it felt like the 2017 Patriots had turned a corner and gotten their season on track, they lost their defensive leader Dont’a Hightower for the season to a torn pec. Hightower was one of the walking wounded headed into the season and any hopes that he could somehow grind it out, through knee, shoulder and this pec injury were impossible.

As we should all realize by now the Patriots aren’t doomed by this injury. It’s a huge blow, but they’re as well coached a football team as there’s ever been in history and they’ll find a way to still play some pretty good defense. It will be harder on them all, and the team’s odds of winning another Super Bowl went down again, just like they did when Julian Edelman was lost, but they’ll keep fighting down to the last snap.

So now here come the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers (of Orange County?), a team the Patriots have mostly had their way with over the years. In my time in Los Angeles I saw plenty of the games — the 2006 AFCDG, the 2010 and 2014 wins, not to mention all the times here in Foxboro that the Pats handled Phillip Rivers et al, like 2007, the 2007 AFCCG, and 2011.

This is a good and underrated Chargers team, that is far better than their 3-4 record might indicate. They’ve won three in a row and three of their losses were by seven points combined. They’ve got all the necessary elements to beat the Patriots, good pass rushers, a diverse running back and a quarterback who won’t be intimidated despite only beating the Matt Cassel Pats in 2008 (I was at that one too).

This won’t be an easy game, and you wonder how the defense will respond without Hightower. What the Pats need to do to get the job done, and move to 6-2 as they head into the bye week is here in the gameplan.

 

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons

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The Super Bowl 51 rematch is here as the defending champs take on the lead-blowing Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. This is a tough game for the Patriots on a number of levels. Atlanta will certainly play with something to prove. They had the Super Bowl in hand before falling apart, and yes, it’s a new year and new teams, but the majority of the Falcons are going to play just a bit harder after seeing banner number five hanging over Gillette Stadium.

Then there’s the on-field part of the equation, where the Patriots are off to a horrendous defensive start and now have to face last year’s MVP and one of the best receivers in the game. No, the Falcons haven’t been quite as dominant this year and have in fact lost their last two-straight, both to AFC East opponents, but something tells me they’re going to bring their A game this weekend.

Seven weeks in, as we start to get a better and better sense of who this edition of the Patriots are, it seems like there might be something different about this year’s squad. Whether it was Mike Giardi’s piece here or Mark Daniels on NBC Sports last night, there are murmurs that this team is a lot more guarded and defensive about criticism.

Will that turn 2017 into a rehash of 2009’s “I just can’t get this team to play the way they need to” version? Only time will tell. That team proved over and over again that they weren’t mentally tough and, say what you will about the 2017 Pats, but they’ve certainly shown good resolve in the face of adversity thus far. Just because they aren’t as verbose or media-friendly as years past doesn’t mean they have character problems.

Still, this team has shown plenty of problems on the field. Unprecedented problems. Can they get those corrected and win their third-straight game of the season against a team that will be out for revenge and looking to drop the hammer early and often?

Here’s the gameplan to make it happen.

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