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Gameplan

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 4 at Kansas City Chiefs

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The Patriots conclude the first quarter of their season on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs in Arrowhead, in what should be a good test for a Patriots team that seems to be going in two different directions on either side of the ball.

Last season the Chiefs were one of the teams that scared me. Their controlled short passing game is just the kind that has given the Patriots defense fits in recent years, but the Pats defense is starting to look reborn after a strong start against three admittedly less-than-formidable offenses.

Offensively the talk all week has been focused on the offensive line, leading many to wonder if there will be some changes upfront for the Pats. Once New England gets their blocking solidified, we should expect to see a much-improved squad. But there’s no guarantee that the blocking is easily fixed, they’ll have to prove it on the field and all eyes will be on them in the hostile environment known as Arrowhead.

Offensive Strategy

The one constant through the first three games on offense has been Julian Edelman and he should once again be the go-to target to keep the chains moving. With star Chiefs safety Eric Berry nursing a high ankle sprain, the Pats should be tempted to attack the deep part of the field, something they’ve been less-than-effective with early in the season.

Their best deep threat Aaron Dobson was back on the bench last week after seeing his first action in Week 2. If ever there was a time to push the Dobson deep plan, this could be the week.

But the bigger question is whether or not Tom Brady will have the time. Even the most perfect gameplans are easily destroyed when the pass rush gets to Tom Brady and the Chiefs have two of the best edge rushers in the game in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They will test Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder, the Patriots bookend tackles. Solder especially had one of the worst outings of his career against the Raiders and he will need to bounce back in a big way or Brady could be on his ass a lot.

Dontari Poe is a big space-eating defensive tackle who should test the Patriots interior line as well, whoever they roll out there.

Defensive Strategy

With Sealver Siliga unlikely to play, Vince Wilfork and the edges of the defense will have their work cut out for them. Electric running back Jamaal Charles is expected to play, while fellow Chiefs running back Kniles Davis brings a physical element. 

The Chiefs like to hit the edges of the defense hard, so there will be pressure on Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower to keep containment. 

The Pats run defense has been much better since the travesty that was Week 1 against the Dolphins, but this should be their toughest test since then. Joe Vellano held up far better against double teams vs. the Raiders than Chris Jones did, so Vellano could start next to Wilfork.

Donnie Avery and Dwayne Bowe should provide a good test for the Patriots pass defense but tight end Travis Kelce might be the most dangerous of them all. Patrick Chung has been effective in coverage thus far against tight ends and seems like the favorite to draw coverage on Kelce. If he’s ineffective, Jamie Collins could be called to action.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Block! – If you’ve read just about any intelligent analysis about the Patriots this week, you know that the offensive line is their biggest team issue right now. What’s frustrating is that the guys who have done it in the past – especially Solder and Vollmer – are not doing it now. They need to be the leaders. Regardless of what kind of personnel changes are made, the offensive line must communicate better and simply play at a higher level –  a level they are capable of. They have a great opportunity to right the ship in a tough place to play. That can make a statement.

2. Bombs Away – The Patriots have needed a vertical element to their passing game for going on five seasons. There’s no question the offense is built around Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski and they will move the ball with those two as the primary receivers. But for the offense to truly hit the next level, they need attack the perimeter of the defense. The chance is there this week, but only if the offensive line gives Brady the time to get off accurate throws. It’s all connected, but a couple shots down the field is just what this team needs.

3. First Down Execution – Part of the problems this year have been slow starts especially at the start of the game and the start of the second half. The play calling was over-thought and put the Patriots in yardage holes early. They need to start better in every sense of the word. On first down and early in each half, they need to set themselves up for success later in the game and on the set of downs.

4. Physicality on Defense – The Dolphins often overwhelmed the Chiefs in Week 3 with pure physicality and the Patriots have the personnel to do the same. Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones have had superb starts to their third seasons in the NFL and they’ll have to show that to a national audience on Monday night. The defense has shown that they are not the same old Patriots defense we became accustomed to from 2010-2013, and they must continue to build on the success that they have had against a legitimate NFL offense and probably the best quarterback they’ve seen yet this season.

5. Win: As always, what matters most is getting the win. We’re closing out the first quarter of the season, so the time for experimentation and wondering what the Patriots are good and bad at is coming to a close. This game will tell us a lot about the kind of team the 2014 Pats are, especially after a week where a win felt more like a loss. The entire NFL world will be watching to see if there really are any cracks in the Patriots empire. A convincing win on the road in Kansas City would answer that with a resounding “No”.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at Minnesota Vikings

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We’re finally on to Week 2, putting the ugly season-opening loss to Miami behind us! The Minnesota Vikings provide just the right kind of tough challenges the Patriots need to face to prove they’re not the team that laid a major egg on the road in Miami last week.

Here’s our game plan!

Offensive Strategy

The Patriots offense was disjointed but effective in the first half against Miami. But it was too reminiscent of last year’s offense that was completely reliant on Edelman and Vereen. Amendola and LaFell were mostly invisible and Brady got locked onto Gronk a little too much. It’s understandable he’d want to get Gronk involved early and often to get back up to game speed, but Gronk’s progress back to normal isn’t going to happen over night. 

The important pieces are Kenbrell Thompkins and hopefully Aaron Dobson. Thompkins flashed a lot of potential this offseason once again, but wasn’t much of a factor against the Dolphins. If Dobson can return and Thompkins can start to make some significant plays, the Pats offense can stop being so one-dimensional with Edelman/Vereen.

This week the Pats have to spread the ball around and when the playmakers have the ball in their hands they have to make plays. 

Defensive Strategy

(Update 9/12 afternoon – Adrian Peterson is no longer playing due to his indictment for reckless or negligent injury to a child). Not having to face the best running back in the game is helpful for the Pats run defense, it’s just a shame why he won’t be playing regardless. 

Cordarrelle Patterson now becomes the primary focus for the Pats’ defense.

The trio of Alfonzo Dennard, Devin McCourty and Darrelle Revis will have their work cut out for them, especially when coming down to contain the inevitable end-arounds the Vikes will run.

Upfront the Pats might want to lean on Wilfork and Siliga in the middle. A return to the double nose 4-3 makes the most sense to me (see below), especially if Jamie Collins is limited or out.

The rotation between Chung and Harmon at safety is one interesting area to watch. Chung is effective in the box but now without Peterson it might make sense to load the back end. The deep pass defense has been an issue in recent years. We assume they’ve been fixed with Revis in the fold, but now it’s time to prove it.

Points of Emphasis

1. Tackle: How different last week’s outcome could’ve been if the Pats had missed just a few less tackles. It might’ve been just a six-point game as Brady got the ball back, setting up a chance to win the game on the final drive, something he’s certainly capable of. It’s little surprise that tackling was so sloppy with the new rules in training camp, but it’s no excuse, they have to be better. Simply wrapping up and making the plays they’re in position to make will make a world of difference this week for the defense.

2. Do Your Job: Too many mistakes were made last week with guys trying to compensate for mistakes and it could be easy to get rattled after the results were so ugly. Players on both sides of the ball must play within the system and within themselves and not try to do too much. Focusing on this kind of thinking is what can get the team back on track playing clean and complimentary football. 

3. Back to the Double Nose: With Jamie Collins limited on Thursday and missing practice on Friday, there’s  chance the Pats could be short a linebacker this weekend. There are worse games he could miss. I think the best combo upfront would be Wilfork and Siliga inside, with Chandler and Ninkovich at defensive end, returning to the “double nose” defense of the past couple seasons.

If Chris Jones can get back that would be a big boost. Darius Fleming could be thrust into the fire at SLB if Collins is out, but sliding Hightower to MLB and Mayo to WLB might maximize both their effectiveness in the run game.

4. Block: Belichick said Mike Zimmer might just zerox his gameplan from last season when his Bengals defense held the Patriots to just 1-for-13 on third down. The Bengals had back-to-back third down sacks on the Pats first two possessions of the game and that set the tone. Per PFF, they blitzed 14 of 42 snaps, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you have Geno Atkins (which the Vikings do not) it certainly helps. 

There’s no question the Pats protection struggled last week and even when they did get everyone blocked it looked far from smooth. Maybe it was the rotation, maybe it was just early-season jitters, but the Patriots offense has to get it together this week.

5. Win: As always, all that matters is getting that first win of the season. Even with a second loss it’s not time to panic, but this Patriots team needs to find themselves sooner than later. There wasn’t a lot to feel good about after last week’s second half, but there’s a huge opportunity to right the ship this week. Mike Zimmer’s defense had their way with the Pats last year. Overcoming these elements on the road will plant a lot of confidence in the 2014 Pats and put them on track for the kind of season we all expect out of them.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 at Miami

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The New England Patriots open their 2014 season on the road in Miami against the Dolphins, and as all divisional matchups in Week 1 go, this one will be down to the wire.

Season openers are always filled with mistakes, turnovers and general sloppiness. Teams don’t know exactly what to expect, they haven’t been tackling much, and with gameplans that have been in incubation since April, there are always some surprises.

Offensive Strategy: Picking a method of attack is even tougher this season because the Patriots have a great “inventory” (as Brady puts it) of offensive firepower… at least here in Week 1 it looks that way. 

I’m going with what I think will be the bread-and-butter of 2014, 11 personnel as the primary package. Edelman is a constant but the surprise could be a combination of using both LaFell and Dobson on the outside, with Vereen in the backfield. Hooman should be the primary tight end until the red zone, when Gronk (assuming he plays) enters the game.

The key – attacking their undersized corners with the Pats’ big weapons, including Wright. Their linebackers are fast and need to be worn down using the third tackle-as-tight end package.

I’m not worried about pushing the pace of the offense at this point in the season, though I’m sure they’ll hurry up at select moments. But it’s more about execution, especially being on the road and in physically-demanding conditions. 

Defensive Strategy: Expecting a hybrid 34/43 with Wilfork/Vellano in the middle and Ninkovich/Chandler on the edges. Collins/Hightower are the OLBs and should be tasked with Charles Clay, Collins especially. With Mayo in the middle he’ll have an eye on Tannehill.

Man-to-man defense is the easiest coverage to run when there might be some unexpected wrinkles from the Dolphins offense, so let’s put Revis on Wallace, Dennard on Hartline and Arrington on Gibson. Though they’ll rotate, I’d bet Harmon plays more snaps than Chung.

Miami will definitely push the pace so it will be important to keep substitutions to a minimum. Easing Siliga/Easley will be an important rotation on the DL, as will Buchanan/Moore at DE.

Rotating players to stay fresh in the heat might be challenging.

If Revis can neutralize Wallace, the Pats have a numbers advantage against Hartline, Gibson and Clay. That’s what Revis Island brings to the party.

The Dolphins should test the Patriots run defense. I would. No more Brandon Spikes, Hightower likely on the edge and Wilfork coming off an injury should tempt the Dolphins to  really attack the middle of the defense with their ground game. 

Keep Brady off the field. Chew clock. Hang on to the ball. It’s a good game plan vs. 12 if you can do it the entire game. 

Points of Emphasis

1. Clean Football – In a tight game, the mistakes often make the difference and a season opener in tough conditions is prime territory for a sloppy game. We all know the Patriots’ reliance on winning the turnover battle – with a better defense that could change this year – but this week it doesn’t. Playing safe with the ball and being aware of the situation are paramount in a game like this.

2. Attack the Middle of the OL – The Pats finally have the makings of a team whose pass rush must be respected and this is their debut. Expect a rotating number of faces lining up and down the defensive line to attack the interior of the Phins’ OL. Dominique Easley is expected to play and could have an impressive debut even in limited action.

3. Keep Their Heads Spinning on Defense – Tom Brady has a number of unique weapons at his disposal and it will be important to never let Miami get a bead on what they’re trying to do. This will be done by a constantly rotating set of personnel at receiver, tight end and running back. Imagine the difficulty of covering Edelman one snap, Tim Wright the next, then Kenbrell Thompkins the next.

4. Hold the (middle of the) Fort – Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer will have to be at their best against Miami’s talented edge rushers, but they should be up to the task. There have been plenty of questions surrounding the interior of the Pats’ line this offseason and there are even more now after Logan Mankins was dealt. Now is the time for Josh Kline, Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly (and whoever else) to answer those questions.

And can the defense get back to stopping the run like they did before last year? Mayo moving back to middle linebacker is something to watch. 

5. Win – Getting the W is all that matters, no matter how ugly, you’ll take them however you can get them at this time of year. This could be the toughest divisional game of the season and if the Pats can come out of it 1-0 it would a great (and record-tying) start to the season.