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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 vs. Detriot Lions

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The 8-2 New England Patriots welcome the 7-3 Detroit Lions this weekend in another great test for the streaking Pats, winners of six straight.

The Lions have actually pounded the Patriots pretty good in the 2011 and 2013 preseasons, but those games were in Detroit and without the usual kind of gameplanning that goes into the regular season contests.

Still, the Lions feature an impressive defense and have enough weapons on offense to challenge the Patriots suddenly stout defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats:

Offensive Gameplan

The Lions have the #1 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are 3rd against the pass and 1st against the run, but have they faced the kind of gameplan-oriented offense like the Patriots in non-ideal conditions yet? Nope.

The biggest key to the game might be keeping Ndamukong Suh out of Tom Brady’s face. If there’s one recurring nightmare in the Patriots infrequent losses, it’s pressure coming up the middle early and often. If Brady cannot establish an early rhythm, it could ensure the game stays close well into the second half.

However, this year’s Patriots have shown a remarkable ability to overcome bad plays and bad drives, bouncing back and looking unstoppable, even after looking gross.

Expect the Pats to shift away from the run-heavy approach they took against the Colts and move to a more spread-offense, quick throw approach. 

Once again, Rob Gronkowski will be a key, whether he’s catching the ball or just drawing excessive attention in coverage, opening things up for the other receivers. The Lions are the #1 team in the NFL covering tight ends, that should be put to the test this week.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola could be big keys in the slot, while Brady will take his deep shot to Brian Tyms, with Brandon LaFell keeping the Lions honest on the perimeter.

Shane Vereen should be the running back of choice instead of running Jonas Gray and newly-reunited LeGarrette Blount into the teeth of the Lions’ defense. The Lions are 26th in DVOA covering running backs, so throwing to Vereen makes sense.

Defensive Gameplan

The Lions have the 22nd ranked offense in DVOA, 18th in passing and 30th in rushing, but those numbers don’t match the talent they have, especially in the passing game with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate forming a tough combination to defend.

As is the case every week, the question is who will Darrelle Revis cover. While conventional wisdom might put him on Megatron, the Pats haven’t always used Revis straight-up on the best opposing receiver. 

More often they use him against the quarterback’s safety valve, so there’s certainly a case to be made for using Revis on Tate, and using Browner’s size and length (along with over-the-top help) on Calvin. 

Though Browner is former teammates with Tate, sometimes that kind of familiarity is useful as we’ve seen with Kyle Arrington covering Wes Welker.

The Patriots’ defense has found their stride in recent weeks and going against pass-happy teams like Detroit feeds right into what they are built to stop. 

With newfound confidence in their defensive backs, the Pats are more willing to send extra blitzers like Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Dominique Easley has also shown signs of recovering his elite burst and could be in for a big game.

Points of Emphasis

1. Trim the Bush: Tate and Johnson are very good players and will cause issues, but the Pats secondary is up to the challenge. Where the game could be lost is if Reggie Bush gets hot, both running against the sub defense and in the passing game. Jamie Collins figures to draw a fair amount of responsibility to cover Bush in the passing game, but it will be up to the front four contain Bush on the ground.

2. Spread ‘Em:  These are the kind of games that will bring back memories of 2007 as the Pats should get all their receivers involved. If guys like Tim Wright and Danny Amendola can snag some catches early, it will all start to unravel for Detroit, who is undoubtedly hoping to take Gronk out of the game and force the Pats to win with Edelman as the main passing focus. 

3. Top of the Pocket: Games like this are a great test for the interior of the Pats offensive line, especially rookie Brian Stork. This is where the game will be won or lost. If Brady can’t step up into the pocket things could get interesting. He’ll want to unload the ball quickly, but the only way to stop it is if there’s immediate pressure in his face. That cannot happen.

4. Force Throws to the TEs: Expect the Pats to take away the deep ball to Tate and Johnson, forcing Stafford to check down to his tight ends. While it might be by design, the Pats are 31st in DVOA covering tight ends. As we saw last week with Coby Fleener going off, but the Colts still losing, we could see Brandon Pettigren, Eric Ebron or even Joe Fauria catch a bunch of balls. Even if that’s happening, it’s playing into the Patriots game plan.

5. Win – I think this is the week the Pats expose the reality of the Lions. They’re a good team, but I just don’t think they have what it takes to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. The Pats certainly took a look at how the Lions dominated them in recent preseason games and should be motivated to send a message. With the Packers looming next weekend, moving to 9-2 while maintaining the top record in the AFC is a great way to enter the post-Thanksgiving stretch, a time when they should really start playing their best football.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 at Indianapolis Colts

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These are the games that define your season. The Patriots have had plenty of success at home, against the good and the bad, but on the road, in their recent house of horrors (4th and 2, SB46), against a team that badly wants to beat them to prove they’re “elite”… this is where a good Pats team can prove they’re great.

The last time we saw the Patriots, they were clicking on all cylinders against the Broncos and getting all the bounces. That tends to happen less often on the road.

It’s not surprising that Rodney Harrison said earlier this week that Belichick is treating this like a playoff game. Maybe it doesn’t have the same buzz as Brady vs. Manning, but this game is every bit as big as far as the AFC goes, and it will definitely have an impact on the playoff seedings.

What do the Pats have to do to get out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a win?

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats have had an extra week to do some self-reflection so there could be some new wrinkles, or perhaps some expanded roles, for guys who got here late.

While Jonas Grey has shown some decent power, Shane Vereen is essentially the lead back now. Since Stevan Ridley went down, Vereen has played 65 percent of the snaps. With Gronk drawing coverage, things have only been getting easier for Vereen in the passing game. Look for him to be a key contributor.

The Pats’ success with play action has been well-documented this week. For all the talk of the two tight end sets of 2011 and 2012, now the Pats are having success with fullback James Develin and/or Michael Hoomanwanui joining Vereen in the backfield. Simply put, the threat of a fullback/halfback tandem has been enough to put defenses on their toes against the run game and that has helped the passing game. The Patriots have a miserable ground attack, Football Outsiders has them 31st in rushing DVOA.

The Colts should focus on two things – stopping Rob Gronkowski and pass coverage. Force the Pats to beat them running the ball or squeezing it in tight windows to someone other than their dominant tight end.

Will the Pat take the cheese and run the ball? This could be a game that tells us a lot about their balance on offense. But it’s a passing league and in a dome the conditions are perfect, so look for this to be a Vereen/Edelman/LaFell heavy attack.

Defensive Gameplan

The bye week was much-needed for the Patriots defense because it gives in-season newcomers likes Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas and Casey Walker a little extra time to get up to speed.

The Pats had Ayers in a full-time edge role against the Broncos and I can’t see why that would change now, the only other option is to play the injured Dominique Easley out of position.

Jamie Collins had a breakout game against the Colts last year in the playoffs and there’s every reason to think he’ll once again be a big key. Despite some knocks on him in the run game early this season, he’s looked better recently, likely due to his thigh getting fully healthy. Collins was drafted for games like these.

As always the big question is how the Pats deal with explosive deep threat T.Y. Hilton, old nemesis Reggie Wayne and the Colts’ strong duo of tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There’s little question that Hilton will get over-the-top focus, so is it worth using Revis on him? Perhaps letting Browner kill him at the line, while putting Revis on Wayne is a better use of resources. 

Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower and Collins will have their work cut out for them, not just with the tight ends, but with resurgent running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has over 700 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns this season.

Disguise, and forcing Andrew Luck into the kind of mistakes he’s made in his first two games against the Pats are key, but those games were in Foxborough and Luck cannot be counted on to hand the game over in Indy.

This one will take a total defensive effort just like the Broncos game did. Do the Pats have another one of those in them, this time on the road?

It’s a great test.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Keep the Gronk Times Rolling: The Colts are 29th in DVOA covering tight ends so that’s an area to attack. However I believe the Colts will give extra attention to Gronkowski, even if it comes at the expense of weakening their defense elsewhere. Still, it doesn’t really matter. Gronk makes plays no matter how many guys are on him and there’s no reason to shy away from him now.

2. Stop Bradshaw In Sub: I could probably write the same keys every week for the Patriots – stop the run in sub-defense and protect Tom Brady. The matchups at wide receiver versus the Pats’ secondary are favorable, but it’s Ahmad Bradshaw who could ruin the game. The defensive tackles and ends must build the wall and contain him, while the linebackers must stick with him in pass coverage. Even giving up a bomb or two to Hilton is preferable to letting Bradshaw put up 150 yards of offense.

3. Fast Start on Offense:  I have a feeling this one is going to be a high-scoring affair and the Pats would be well-suited to get some points on the board early. So far, they’ve had really good in-game perseverance this year – bouncing back after slow starts and mistakes in recent weeks, but it would be preferable to avoid the drama of trying to come back on a Colts team that specializes in comebacks.

4. 60 Minutes: Along those same lines, this one is going to come down to the end and no lead is safe against Andrew Luck in Indy. If the Pats snag a lead for the second time in two games, they might be feeling pretty good about themselves and take their foot off the gas.  That’s just what the Colts love. The Pats must finish.

5. Win: The Pats lost to the Panthers coming out of their bye last season, looking flat and needing a late comeback that probably should’ve happened. They should be better prepared and more focused against a conference rival this year.

A win would seal the Patriots’ spot atop the AFC, and give them the inside track on a bye, owning a direct tie-breaker over the other two best teams in the conference.

A win over a very good team in a very tough place to play would say even more. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Denver Broncos

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This one has been circled since the schedule came out in April, and now it’s finally time to enjoy a clash of the two best teams in the NFL. Many are betting the Patriots and Broncos will meet again on the way to the Super Bowl and this game might just decide where it’s played.

This is what football is all about, and a loss will not be detrimental to either team. There’s still time for injuries and recoveries to play out, along with new hot or cold streaks. Both teams could have a far different complexion if they meet again in January.

But for now, at the start of the second half of the season, here’s the game plan.

Offensive Gameplan

Not to oversimplify a gameplan, but this one would seem to be all about the Patriots offensive line. More often than not we can make the case that that is always the biggest key for the Patriots – give Brady time and he’ll carve up any defense.

But if he can never find a rhythm, it could be a long night, just like the AFC Championship game was.

In that one it was Terrence Knighton who gave the interior of the Patriots offense line nightmares.

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That was impetus for advocating a rehaul of the center and right guard positions in the offseason. That happened, but not in the way we thought it would. Now it will be two of the same three pieces and a rookie in the middle against the Broncos. Can they do better than they did with Mankins in there in January? It’s a huge question.

But the bigger problem this year has been the play of the tackles, especially Nate Solder, though he has settled down in recent weeks. Still, he and Sebastian Vollmer (and rotational tackle Marcus Cannon) are facing arguably the best one-two edge punch in the NFL this year with Demarcus Ware and Von Miller. 

Solder had his problems with Miller last year and will need to bring his best game of the season. Being at home will certainly help him get off the ball, but short, quick pass rushers seem to always give him fits.

If the offensive line holds up, the rest doesn’t really matter. Brady will find whoever is open, whether Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are matching up on Gronk, LaFell or Edelman.

Perhaps the best course of action will be to take advantage of the Broncos interior linebackers with Shane Vereen in the passing game.

Regardless, just give Brady time and everything should fall into place on offense.

Defensive Gameplan

The big question this week is how will the Patriots matchup with the Broncos array of weaponry? This is New England’s best secondary since 2003, one that seems to have been specifically built with beating the Broncos in mind.

I believe that the Patriots will mix things up from down to down. There will be times where Browner and Revis stay on their sides, but I think there will also be third downs where they want to get the specific matchups. Let’s face it, Manning knows how to find the open receiver, so even if the Thomases are taken away, he’ll throw it to Sanders or Welker, or check into a run.

Do the Pats go with a light box and tempt Manning to hand the ball off like he did in last year’s regular season tilt? I’m sure they’ll pick their spots with that as well. 

Ultimately there is no definitive matchups that the Pats will push every down. Mixing up against Manning is essential. I expect to see Kyle Arrington back in heavy rotation after being lightly used the last two weeks.

The spot I’m most unsure about is Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas. If Julius splits out wide, it’s a no-brainer. But you can’t expect Browner to go inside and expect him to cover him with every route option on the table.

So when Thomas is inside, expect a linebacker over him with strict orders to destroy him on the line of scrimmage. When he goes outside, he gets Browner.

Revis on Demaryius Thomas seems like a no-brainer for important downs. But I don’t expect Revis to follow Demaryius all over the field, every down.

Arrington has had good success against Welker, but Emmanuel Sanders is a problem. Alfonzo Dennard could be a good physical choice to cover him, but I’d like to see Duron Harmon over the top of him, while Devin McCourty plays a free safety role.

Does Patrick Chung play much in this one? That’s a big question I have. Him in coverage on just about anyone is a mismatch. Thus I’d expect a lot of McCourty-Harmon on the back end, only bringing Chung in if the Broncos run game is effective. 

Or perhaps it plays out like the scenario that was discussed this offseason, with Browner and safety help on Demaryius, Revis on Emmanuel Sanders, and a similar plan inside.

But for all the talk of the secondary, this game will be won or lost by the Patriots front seven and how well they A) stop the run from their sub package and B) get enough pressure to disrupt Manning’s throws.

The initial coverage should be effective with the Pats ability to jam at the line of scrimmage. But after that initial disruption it will be up to the likes of Rob Ninovich, Dominique Easley, Akeem Ayers and any blitzing linebackers to get after Manning. No secondary can cover forever. It’s unlikely the Pats will get a bunch of sacks, but the disruption of the pocket and getting Manning just a bit uncomfortable is paramount.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Protect. Tom. Brady. :  I don’t care if Peyton Manning puts up 40-plus points and torches our defense, if the offensive line protects Brady he could put up 40-plus as well. Brady has torched the Jack Del Rio defense numerous times in Foxboro. This isn’t Rex Ryan, where we can expect him to take Brady off his game schematically. The only way Brady doesn’t have a good game is if he’s running for his life. With this year’s offensive line that wouldn’t be a surprise. They need a huge game.

2. Find a Pass Rush: The Patriots hopes in this one took a serious blow when they lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones. Jones was the only semi-consistent pass rushing threat on the Pats early in the season, now they’re going to have to find a consistent pass rush from those who were below him on the depth chart or replacements. Dominique Easley looked impressive early against the Bears as Jones’ replacement, he’ll have his work cut out for him this week. Perhaps Akeem Ayers can generate some pressure on Manning, or defensive tackle Chris Jones, who has shined with some interior rush at certain times. Somehow the Pats have to find some finishers this week. The secondary should give them an extra beat, but it can’t go any longer or else someone will get open.

3. Wilfork Must Dominate: It’s hard to believe the severity of the injury Vince Wilfork suffered last year, he’s bounced back like it never even happened. Wilfork is capable of dominating a game by himself (see 2011 AFCCG), and if he can rise to the occasion this week, especially against the run, the Pats defense will get a huge boost. Last year in the regular season matchup the Pats let the Broncos run all over them. This weekend figures to be similar with gusty winds expected to take some air out of the passing game. If the Pats six-man front in the sub-package gets run all over again, it will be tough to keep pace with the Broncos offense. Wilfork and his defensive tackle rotation must come up huge this week.

4. Balance: The Broncos have a ton of talent on defense in all areas and if the Patriots offense becomes one-dimensional, the Broncos will tee off on them. The key to this is maintaining balance in the running and passing game. Keeping guys like Miller and Ware on their heels is a priority. When they know the pass is coming, that’s when they’re at their best. Can Jonas Grey have a breakout day? That might be a pivotal question for Sunday.

5. Win: 7-2 and a tie breaker for homefield advantage over the Broncos in the playoffs is certainly a nice way to go into the bye, especially for a team that most considered dead and buried just a few weeks ago. You can never rule the Patriots out at home no matter how unstoppable their opponent has looked the last few weeks. We know the Patriots will fight down to the end, but will the injuries to Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo cost them? Or how about the changes on the offensive line? This is the game where we’ll find out. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Bears

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The 5-2 New England Patriots welcome the 3-4 Chicago Bears this Sunday after a ten day break coming off their Thursday Night Football win over the New York Jets.

The Pats badly needed some time to regroup and get healthy, especially along the offensive line where Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork are still recovering from concussions. The Pats also got news that they’ll be without Chandler Jones for the next month, this coming on top of losing Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley for the season the week before.

The Patriots looked tired and had poor communication against the Jets, but hopefully the last ten days have given them some time to get back on the same page. They also traded for linebacker Akeem Ayers this week, who was buried on the Titans depth chart, but could see immediate action given the Pats’ injuries on defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Bears…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite some up and downs against the Jets, the Patriots offense is starting to find their stride. Shane Vereen looks like he might now be New England’s feature back, while Brandon LaFell has developed into the big target Tom Brady has lacked for a while. 

With Rob Gronkowski looking better and better each week and Julian Edelman continuing on pace for 100 catches and 1,000 yards, the Pats offense should feast on a suspect Bears secondary.

The Bears are 30th in DVOA against tight ends and 26th against #2 WRs – signs that point to big games for Gronk and Edelman.

Tom Brady has never had a problem finding the open receiver, and if he continues to throw the ball downfield with better accuracy and consistency the Pats offense could find another gear this week.

Getting tight end Tim Wright even more involved should be a focus this week, especially with more expected spread formations. Perhaps it’s time to revisit the Vereen-White double RB sets.

This game will be about the pass, at least early. If the protection holds as it has in recent weeks, the Pats will move the ball.

Defensive Gameplan

The Patriots have had three ugly defensive performances – the win over the Jets and the two losses to Miami and Kansas City. All three looked the same with the Pats making fundamental errors – missed tackles, lost contain and untimely penalties being the main problems.

Those problems are fixable, but there’s little question the Bears will look to attack a Patriots run defense that has been shredded this season. They are currently 23rd in run defense DVOA.

The receiving combo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey might provide the most interesting challenge of the season for the Pats’ secondary. Darrelle Revis has had success against Marshall in the past, while Brandon Browner’s size should be an asset against Jeffrey.

But even if the coverage is great, the pass rush might be the biggest concern. The Pats are currently 25th in the NFL on third down and they were that bad with Chandler Jones, their best pass rusher. How much worse will they be without him?

No secondary can cover forever, so it will be on the replacement pass rush parts – Dominique Easley, Zach Moore and perhaps Akeem Ayers to get after Jay Cutler and force mistakes.

Points of Emphasis

1. Generate Pressure Any Way Possible: As I mentioned above, getting to Jay Cutler could be the deciding factor in this game. If Belichick needs to get creative to generate pass rush so be it. In the past we’ve seen Belichick resort to walk-around amoeba defenses on third down to aid the pass rush. He’s not going to be sending six pass rushers every down, but the occasional slot corner blitz has had some success. Expect a healthy rotation in Chandler Jones’ spot, someone has to get the job done.

2. Fundamentals: This defense needs to find some consistency with their fundamental skills. With the extra time off, I expect we’ll see better tackling and the Pats are always more comfortable against a traditional pocket passer like Jay Cutler. When the Patriots simply make the tackles they’re in position to make and don’t get overaggressive and lose sight of their “job”, they’re a solid defense. But at some point they need to start stringing success together and it starts against a Bears offense that has plenty of weapons.

3. Hammer Down Immediately: The turmoil in the Bears locker room was well-documented last week and the Patriots need to come out of the gate with guns blazing to plant the seed of doubt immediately in this volatile team’s minds. This applies on both sides of the ball and it starts up front. The offensive and defensive lines must be ready to explode on their respective first series to set the tone and let the Bears know it’s going to be a long night. If that happens, the Bears could fold and start making mistakes that only make things worse.

4. Get the New Guys Involved: Between Jonas Grey, Zach Moore, Akeem Ayers and Dontae Skinner, the Patriots will need contributions from some new players going forward and it’s important to get them involved and start building their confidence and experience. This could come at the expense of giving up some plays, but it’s better to take those lumps now in October against an NFC opponent. The sooner we find out who can help the team win, the sooner they can start helping.

5. Win: I’m trying my best not to look ahead to the Denver game. Not only for the game itself, but for the awesome pregame tailgate giveaway party we’re throwing. But Brady-Manning is a headline game every season and the Broncos look like the best team in the NFL. That challenge will have to wait. For now the Pats have to take advantage of being at home against a team they should beat. This is the start of an incredibly hard stretch of games and every win matters. Get to 6-2 and worry about the rest next week.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. Jets

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The Patriots get their Thursday night game out of the way this week, facing their divisional rival the New York Jets. When the Pats and Jets meet we cant throw the records out the window. Yes, the Jets are 1-5, but have had close battles in almost all of the contests and there’s little question Gang Green will be up to play their rivals.

Full disclosure – I love Rex Ryan and love that he coaches the Jets. He’s the perfect Yang to Bill Belichick’s Ying and his defensive gameplans are always fascinating to study, especially when he’s going against Tom Brady.

The Jets have the right talent in the right spots to exploit some of the Patriots’ weaknesses but the game might ultimately rest on the shoulders of Geno Smith. If he plays a mostly error-free game, it will go down to the very end.

Offensive Gameplan

With rain in the forecast, mistakes become magnified, so the biggest thing on offense is execution, especially being careful with the ball. The Pats practiced with wet balls this week to hammer this point home. With two teams that know each other well an untimely fumble could be the difference in the game.

The Jets feature an impressive defensive front and Sheldon Richardson Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson should test a Patriots offensive line that has been shaky at times throughout the season. With Stork and Connolly out, backup Josh Kline, who struggled last week against the Bills, should see plenty of aggressive attacks from the Jets interior.

Nate Solder will also have his work cut out for him against Wilkerson as he looks to get his season on track.

Perhaps most important though will be the communication on the offensive line. Rex Ryan loves to run all kinds of blitzes that will test even the most veteran offensive lines. They cannot afford to miss someone and allow a free hitter in on Brady, especially with slippery conditions.

If the passing game is affected by the weather it will put the magnifying glass on the Pats’ run game sans Stevan Ridley. Their ability to move the ball on the ground could be another one of the major factors in this game.

Defensive Gameplan

Between the wet conditions and Geno Smith’s penchant for turnovers, all signs are pointing to the Pats playing mostly zone defense tonight. This can be maddening to watch, but it’s a staple of Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy. If he doesn’t think a quarterback can execute without multiple game-deciding mistakes, he’s happy to put seven guys into coverage, send limited blitzes and wait for the interceptions to come.

Sometimes the quarterbacks will put together an error-free game in this scenario and it can be frustrating to watch multiple underneath passes completed. But usually the Pats defense will stiffen in the red zone even if the turnovers don’t come. 

This method puts the pressure on the front four of the Patriots. They must get to Smith to help force him into mistakes. If the pass rush is non-existent, Smith will make plays and then things could get dicey.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Trench Warfare: You don’t want to oversimplify any points of emphasis, but this game will be won in the trenches on both sides of the ball. For the Patriots, protecting Tom Brady and picking up Rex Ryan’s complicated blitz schemes is paramount. As we’ve said time and again, if Brady has time, he’ll move the offense. If the Pats give up early pressure and don’t find a rhythm on offense it could be a long night.

2. Born to Run: With Stevan Ridley out of the season, the Pats must find who can carry the rock on early downs. Brandon Bolden might be the easiest choice, but he lacks Ridley’s explosiveness. Or perhaps practice squadder Jonas Grey gets a chance. Regardless, Shane Vereen must step up and make plays. If he doesn’t, the Pats offense could be dangerously close to one-dimensional.

3. Who will Stop (us from passing in) the Rain?: The Pats passing game is really starting to take off in the last couple weeks, and it would be a shame if the rain retards that development. With the Jets devastated by injuries in the secondary, it’s where they are most susceptible. Even with driving rain, the Pats must try to attack their cornerbacks. 

4. One way to Skinner the Jets: Deontae Skinner is likely to see plenty of action tonight, and while he looked very much like a rookie last week against the Bills, this is a time to get a good look at Skinner in a significant role to get a feeling for his ceiling. If they could manage to get a lead, it would be beneficial to get Dont’a Hightower off the field to rest his injured knee. Even Jamie Collins is battling a thigh injury. Tonight is Skinner’s shot to prove the Pats don’t need to go looking for another linebacker outside the organization. He might not get another one.

5. Win: The Pats get an extended break after this one – a great chance to get a bit healthy after a string of injuries the last two weeks. If they can get to 5-2, including 2-1 in the division, they will be in great shape as they approach the halfway point of the season. Tom Brady hasn’t lost an AFC East game at home since 2006 and the streak should continue if the Pats play their usual clean game.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at Buffalo Bills

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The New England Patriots got back on track last week with an impressive win over the previously undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. But there’s little time to enjoy that victory, as the Buffalo Bills welcome the Pats for their second divisional game this season.

Despite New England’s 22-2 record against the Bills since 2001, the early season games, especially those in Buffalo are always close. With first place in the AFC East on the line, the Patriots will need to build on the success they had against the Bengals.

The 3-2 Bills will be looking to make a statement and the Patriots know what they’re walking into –  a hungry team that wants to prove they’re a true contender.

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Continuity is the name of the game this week, building on the solid play of last weekend without regressing is a daunting task in a tough environment like Buffalo. Bill Belichick calls it “stacking success” and that’s something the 2014 Patriots haven’t been able to do yet.

It starts with the offensive line, which may have some questions with Bryan Stork showing up on the injury report on Thursday with a “head injury”. If Stork can go, there’s no reason to change up what worked last week on the line, and really, they don’t have many other options.

The offense cannot continue to progress if Brady doesn’t have the time he needs.

Incorporating pieces like Aaron Dobson and Tim Wright are also important, as they add two completely new elements to the Patriots offense, elements they lacked last year – an athletic “F” tight end and a tall, speedy receiver on the outside.

Getting Danny Amendola more touches wouldn’t be a bad thing either. He had his best game as a Patriot last year in Buffalo, despite tearing his groin in the process. Amendola has been getting open, Brady just hasn’t been finding him.

Balance between the run and pass is critical as always. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley had great patience last week and if they get that kind of blocking again, they should be able to expose the Bills run defense. But there will likely have to be some misdirection and screens involved to avoid Brandon Spikes in the middle of the Bills defense. He’s a downhill, impact linebacker if you run it right at him.

Defensive Gameplan

Injuries are adding up on the defensive side of the ball. Dominique Easley separated his shoulder last weekend and could be out. Chandler Jones is battling a shoulder injury of his own as well. With Michael Buchanan on IR now and Dont’a Hightower missing last weekend with a knee injury, the Pats are scary thin at defensive end right now (and Hightower isn’t even a defensive end!). Even their emergency options are being thinned out.

This is not good for the edges of the defense. The Pats could really use Hightower back to reinforce the edge from his strongside linebacker spot. The options for pass rushers have been thinned out as well. Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich might have to play out of their minds.

Devin McCourty was in a red “no contact” jersey in practice. If he’s out this week Duron Harmon steps into the primary free safety role, something that could be a bit a scary.

But Buffalo should rely on their quick passing game primarily around Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, so it will likely come down to linebackers Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins making plays.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Wrap and Tackle: In the two road losses this year a recurring theme was poor tackling and that cannot happen with talented running backs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Winning on the road, to borrow a phrase from the late great Maine hockey coach Shaun Walsh, is about being “quietly efficient”.  Make the plays you’re in position to make. Don’t do too much. Just DO YOU JOB. If they do that, the Pats defense should be in good position with their talented secondary. But it must start with sound play up front.

2. Two Tight Ends, One Personnel Package: We saw just a glimpse of what last year’s leading receiver for rookie tight ends Tim Wright could do and this week he needs to be worked in even more. As Rob Gronkowski returns to his old self, Wright is the perfect compliment to him –  a move tight end who can stretch the seam but also go up on jump balls. The two tight end set is the most versatile in football and allows the offense to dictate the matchups they want. The sooner the Pats can run Wright and Gronk with a combination of any other weapons, the harder they will be to stop.

3. Make Spikes Cover: Brandon Spikes has certainly had this game circled since the schedule was released and he’ll make his presence felt in the run game. But Spikes’ weaknesses in pass coverage are well-documented and the Pats have a knack for turning a player’s overaggressiveness against them. That should be the case with Spikes as the Pats have plenty of options to exploit him in space. Whether it’s Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski or Tim Wright, the Pats will look to get Spikes in space and take him out of his specialty. Play action should come early and often.

4. Block Four With Five: There’s little surprise that maintaining the kind of offensive line play that we saw against the Bengals is of paramount importance. This week, with a Bills team more than capable of generating pressure with just four talented rushers, the Patriots must find a way to give Brady the extra time to find open receivers with seven defenders in coverage. Kyle Williams should test the interior of the Pats line while Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams will be attacking the edges. Stopping those three players especially might just be the biggest key to the entire game.

5. Win: The Pats are already in a 0-1 hole in the AFC East and dropping to 0-2 would put real pressure on them. Divisional games are of paramount importance in Foxboro – they’re the most direct route to the playoffs of course, so Bill Belichick and co. know what is at stake. Stepping into sole possession of first place in the AFC East would be a nice statement to make in early October, but the road only gets harder from here. 

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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It’s been a long short-week where just about everything that can be criticized on a football team has been ripped to shreds by every media outlet. The Pats always have some early-season drama but they’ve never looked quite as bad as they did against the Chiefs. 

Now an undefeated Bengals team comes to town, setting the Pats up for another national broadcast dogfight. The Patriots have almost always bounced back after bad losses during the Belichick regime. Can they do it again? The odds have never seemed more against them.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats did a good job of slowing things down against the Chiefs and focusing on getting everyone on the same page pre-snap. As a result there were less blown plays due to trying to go too fast. That should continue this week, but the gameplan must rely on the ground game and establishing it early. 

It would appear after a week of controversy and back-to-back games in the stands, that Aaron Dobson should be chomping at the bit to get out there. If the Pats can get him involved, especially in a Dobson-LaFell-Edelman-Gronkowski package (take your pick of RB), the Pats offense will have the kind of size they’ve never had.

Defensive Gameplan

Fundamentals. In my All-22 defensive film review I broke down that most of their problems were simply missed tackles, blown contain, or trying to do too much. The young leaders on the defense, specifically Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower, have to set the tone. When they do that, good things happen and this defense is capable of being a proverbial “elite” one.

The Patriots are much better on defense than they showed against the Chiefs, and I continue to believe they are just inches away from showing how good they can be. The Bengals have plenty of weapons to challenge the Pats, but if they get Alfonzo Dennard back, and are able to sprinkle some Brandon Browner in, the Pats should be ready to get back to their physical ways.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. OL Continuity: Tough one this week with Cameron Fleming unlikely to play after missing all of practice this week with a “finger”. Does Cannon go to RG now – if so who’s the third tackle/blocking TE? Or how about Wendell who looked okay there in his first non-center action. Regardless I think Stork earned another start and Connolly must keep repping at guard. The only way the protection and blocking will get better is as one unit settles in to playing with each other. That can’t happen with more constant rotation. Keep as many pieces in place as possible and just keep rolling them out there.

2. Commit to the Run: The Patriots have just gotten too cute with their gameplans in recent weeks. It’s like they think this is still the 2011 team that would force teams to pick their poison. Now, they have to pick the poison themselves and jam it down the opposition’s throat. They need the attitude of the run game to establish what kind of game this will be. It can also give the OL some confidence as they get to exert their will instead of sitting back and pass blocking right off the bat. Run early. Run often.

3. Stop Sub Runs: An early-season theme for the Patriots has been getting gashed by the run against their sub defense. They’ve corrected the problem in the past, and need to do so again this year. Facing Gio Bernard is no easy task and he has the kind of speed and elusiveness to give the Patriots defense fits. No question, stopping the run from the base defense is imperative as it always is, but it’s the sub defense, likely with Wilfork anchoring them, that must be ready to stop Bernard. Hightower, Mayo and Collins are key players.

4. Man-handle them: The Pats have sprinkled in some man defense over the first four weeks, but this week is the time to get aggressive with it. The Bengals get the ball away quick, that’s why Andy Dalton has yet to be sacked. Taking away that quick passing game is key. It gives the pressure a chance to get there and disrupts the timing of what has been a very efficient offense to this point.

5. Win: The Pats’ backs are against the wall and now face a good team in a national game. This is what football is all about. Yes, the playoffs are what matter most, but if you can’t enjoy the up-and-down journey of the regular season, you’re missing out. A win over an undefeated Bengals team will completely change the conversation around the Patriots. Let’s just hope it’s not an ugly and/or undeserved victory and that they show consistency and progress on both sides of the ball.