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Free Agency

Re-setting the Patriots Offseason Positional Needs

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With yesterday’s release of Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler it shakes things up a bit in terms of the immediate needs for the Patriots. Both were in significant roles last year (at least to start) but faded from view as the season wore on. Right after the end of the season this was how I viewed the Patriots needs:

  1. Tackle
  2. Early Down Running Back
  3. Wide Receiver
  4. Linebacker
  5. Cornerback
  6. Tight End
  7. Guard
  8. Defensive End
  9. Defensive Tackle

Roster Need Reset

Now let’s re-evaluate things a bit:

  1. Wide Receiver – I think Pats fans actually like having this as a top need because it gives them hope that maybe, just maybe, the Pats will finally get a DEEP THREAT!. With the release of LaFell the Pats have an immediate starting need for a wide receiver to primarily play the X spot on the outside. Ideally he’s 6’2″ or bigger, has decent deep speed and is a willing blocker in the run game. 2014 LaFell checked these boxes. 2015 LaFell did not. Not sure anyone is holding out any hope that Aaron Dobson suddenly get it so the cupboard is pretty bare. Previously I thought running back was a spot to spend a little dough on a free agent, but now I shift that to the receiver spot. There will be plenty of speculation about the Patriots having some crazy secret plan in place like bringing in Calvin Johnson. Maybe that’s the case. Or maybe the just go with someone like LaFell was, a castoff who didn’t quite click in another city. Mohmed Sanu won’t excite many people but he still seems to me like an intriguing fit who could play multiple roles in the offense.
  2. Earl Down Running Back – Jeff Howe reported last week that the Pats were interested in bringing back LeGarrette Blount, but I still think he needs to be paired with an explosive hard runner who can get things started. Maybe that role can go to a rookie. Or maybe they try someone like castoff Joique Bell. Still, this is a glaring hole and an important need for 2016.
  3. Tackle – This is a top need, but for the long-term. I think they have to dedicate a high round draft pick to an athletic tackle who can swing to both sides and replace Sebastian Vollmer as starter at right tackle in 2017.
  4. “F” Tight End – Looking for a move tight end can be fun because you don’t have to be as concerned about their blocking. Dwayne Allen formerly of the Colts is an interesting free agent option. This position is also tied to Danny Amendola‘s future. Without Amendola the Pats are really in a bind without a move tight end as well. Which way do they primarily plan on playing, with three receivers or two tight ends? Probably the least exciting option is bringing back Michael Hoomanawanui.
  5. Middle Linebacker – I think this need is best filled by a veteran who can play a two-down role. Stephen Tulloch is intriguing and I’d love to see what Demario Davis could do in the Pats’ system. There are also some interesting guys in the draft like Joshua Perry of Ohio State. Just not sure a rookie can fill this role with where the Pats are picking.
  6. Defensive Tackle – Bringing back Akiem Hicks would be a great start and they also have to decide about Alan Branch in the next few days as he has an option due. Those two are probably tied to each other. But there’s also the fact that there are a ton of great DT fits in the draft. Hoping for one of them without a first round pick might be a fantasy though.

As for Corner, Guard and Defensive End, I think they only really need depth moves as those positions. Bring back Tarrell Brown and see how Ryan Wendell‘s feeling, that would pretty much solidify things before the draft where young corners and guards are always picks.

Report: Patriots release Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler

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The big news is starting to drop as Adam Schefter and Mike Reiss report that the Patriots have released Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler. There was plenty of speculation that both players could be let go as both were disappointing in 2015 and effectively removed from the gameplan by the AFC Championship.

Analysis

I was okay keeping Brandon LaFell and thought he was worth the $3.675 million cap hit after a down year that saw him start the season on the PUP list with a nagging foot injury. He just never found any consistency and ended up with just 37 catches on 74 targets. He was impressive in 2014 and a vital part of the Super Bowl run. Belichick always praised his blocking work as well.

I thought it would enough to buy him one more year with the hope that being healthy and playing for a new contract would help him get back to his 2014.  But his absence from the gameplan against the Broncos after getting a bunch of targets against the Chiefs was pretty meaningful. Here we thought LaFell was finally a free agent wide receiver who clicked with Tom Brady. Not anymore.

As for Chandler, everyone had high hopes that he would join with Rob Gronkowski and form a lethal pair of Twin Towers, but Chandler just never seemed to click with Brady. He ended up with 23 catches on 42 targets and four touchdowns. It was worth a try with Chandler, but for all the clutch plays he made against the Patriots when he was with the Bills, he never came through in those big spots with the Patriots.

This will open up around $3.675 million in cap space, and likely makes Danny Amendola safe, at least from release. He still could be extended to reduce his cap hit.

More importantly it opens up two significant roles on the offense — the starting X receiver spot and the second tight end, of “F”. There are no obvious in-house candidates to fill those roles. Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin would be pencilled into the X spot for now. AJ Derby, who spent his rookie year on IR, is the only possible fill in at the F spot.

Mohamed Sanu and Dwayne Allen would be my favorite two candidates to add into these holes.

But the more space the Pats open up the more ability they’ll have to add some impactful players in free agency. Both of these positions will have to be addressed in some fashion in the next couple weeks.

Patriots not yet engaged in offseason contract talks | Boston Herald

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INDIANAPOLIS — For the time being, the Patriots are in a complete holding pattern with their major financial decisions as they forge through the early stages of the offseason.

Source: Patriots not yet engaged in offseason contract talks | Boston Herald

Lots of good nuggets in here from Jeff Howe, breaking down the specifics of who should get extended, who needs to be re-worked, and how the Patriots haven’t reached out to anyone about anything yet. Things can get done pretty quickly though and there is a ticking clock to an extent as the Pats could want to have some more cap space to maneuver with when free agency opens on March 9th. Still, we can all agree that Hightower is the priority and whether he gets done in the next two weeks or the next two months it’s hard to see them no extending him at the very least.

I did like reading that there was mutual interest in a return for Tarrell Brown. He makes sense as a veteran cornerback addition to add some depth behind all the youth. Another previously unknown nugget was that Vollmer had approached the team about an extension last season but the team balked at the time. I think Vollmer plays this year out, but Marcus Cannon, Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler are all ones to watch in the next couple weeks for contract re-workings, or perhaps being let go outright.

In case you missed it, here’s my Patriots plan for free agency and for those of you glued to the combine this week, here are some early thoughts on the draft.

Boston Herald – Source: LeGarrette Blount, Patriots have mutual interest in reunion

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INDIANAPOLIS — The Patriots’ wrecking ball could be back for more.

Source: Source: LeGarrette Blount, Patriots have mutual interest in reunion | Boston Herald

Interesting. I’ve been thinking the Pats would let LeGarrette Blount walk this offseason because we’ve kind of seen what his ceiling is. In a complimentary role, where he can come on late in the game and finish an opponent off (usually the Colts) he’s pretty good.

However, he’s not going to be one to soften up a defense in the first quarter of a game. He takes a while to get going, or at least needs the defense to be at or near the breaking point where they’re getting lazy with their tackling.

He’s broken 100 yards just four times with the Pats in 38 games, twice were against the Colts (including the ’13 AFCDG & ’14 AFCCG). Obviously those were important wins, but outside of those he’s usually invisible in big games (Nine carries, 27 yards vs. Broncos ’15).

I’m not against him coming back, but I still think the need for a back who can grind out the early yards remains a bigger need. I think that lead back (rookie/FA), Lewis and White, and then Blount is a pretty good group, but Blount can’t be the lead back and he especially can’t be paid like one.

My preference would just be to put the money they’d spend on Blount into an FA who could compete to be the starter and the finisher, and then let training camp determine who plays with Tyler Gaffney and a rookie or two in the mix.

 

Laying Out the New England Patriots Free Agency Plan

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We’re still a couple weeks away from the start of the new NFL year on March 9th and with it the start of free agency. With that the Pats’ plans for 2016 will start to come into clearer view, but I continue to believe that the major moves will be done on internal free agents and not splashy external ones. Here’s what I see as the Patriots Free Agency plan for the next month.

If there was a position to spend a little bit extra money I’d put it at the running back spot and that’s the only reason I won’t cross Matt Forte off my list of targets.

Here are the priorities:Extend Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins: Can they both get done together? Both are entering the last years of their deals and should both get significant money. Hightower is the lock because an extension for him would lower his $7.75 million cap hit. Collins is still a bargain and that could be the only thing preventing him from getting extended sooner than later.

patriots tarrell brown

Internal Unrestricted Free Agent Priorities:

  1. Akiem Hicks: Pats have expressed interest in bringing him back. What happens with him could directly affect whether or not the Pats pick up Alan Branch‘s option. Branch had a very good season in 2015, but I’d advocate Hicks over him.
  2. Tarrell Brown: Really think the Pats only need one veteran corner and Brown looked poised to start last season but had a lingering foot issue. If that’s cleared up he’s had a year in the system and would be good to keep around.
  3. Nate Ebner: Special teams demons are valued on the Patriots far more than other teams. Ebner should be an easy signing and they don’t want to let both him and Tavon Wilson go. Wilson walks. Ebner stays.
  4. Dane Fletcher: He spent his year back with the Pats rehabbing a torn ACL and never made if off IR. He’d be a cheap signing at a position of need. Not sure he’s ready for significant snaps anymore, but did a good job filling in at Mike in his first stint. Special teams value too.

Let walk: LeGarrette Blount, Tavon Wilson, Steven Jackson, Dekoda Watson, Brandon Gibson.

Restricted/Exclusive Rights Free Agent Priorities:james develin touchdown

  1. James Develin: Pats missed their fullback last year. Might be better to extend him than tender him, as it would be more cost effective.
  2. Cameron Fleming: Hoped for more out of him in 2015, but provides depth at an area of uncertainty.
  3. Justin Coleman: Really solid rookie season in the slot and was very good in the playoffs.
  4. Sealver Siliga: Bit of a down year in 2015, but still has good size and had his moments. Fits the rotation well at DT.
  5. Brandon King: Second in the NFL in solo special teams tackles.
  6. Rufus Johnson: Preseason standout at defensive end, could be a developmental piece with Chandler/Ninkovich nearing uncertainty.

Other RFA/ERFA: Brian Tyms, LaAdrian Waddle, Josh Boyce, Kevin Hughes (all very likely return)

External Free Agents to consider:

  1. Matt Forte – finding a deal that works is key here, but Forte could take an early-down role, sprinkled in with some passing down work. Pats offer a winning organization and a chance to take some wear and tear off via a rotation.
  2. Alfred Morris – Morris is a good mid-range option for the early-down role.
  3. Joique Bell – Bell is the cheap option, but he’s always seemed like a Pats back to me and almost signed with the team coming out. He might be the best match of value and style, but Pats would still need to address RB in the draft.
  4. Mohamed Sanu – Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but could give the Pats more size in the slot than Danny Amendola. He also has run the Wildcat and can do a number of things.
  5. Kendall Reyes – Good fit coming out of UConn who never found his stride in San Diego. Reclamation project if Hicks doesn’t stick around.
  6. Randy Starks – Pats have had a plenty of Starks over the years, good versatile fit upfront who’d fit into the Alan Branch role.
  7. Rolando McClain – Kicked the tires on him last year, but he went with Dallas. Still seems like a good MLB fit, but the ship might’ve sailed.
  8. Stephen Tulloch – BB’s had good success with vet LBs at the end of the line. Tulloch has enough in the tank left to be a sub player at MLB, primarily to make run game tackles. If money could be figured out he might relish a shot at a ring after a career with the Titans and Lions.

ProJo/Daniels: Patriots show interest in re-signing Akiem Hicks

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Akiem Hicks is expected to generate plenty of attention when free agency starts next month. You can count the Patriots in as one of his suitors.

Source: Patriots show interest in re-signing Akiem Hicks

I’m all for giving it a shot with Hicks who really started to step up once Dominique Easley went down. General consensus seems to be that Hicks would get more money elsewhere but he’s young and talented and as anyone who knows me knows, I can never get enough front seven talent.

Re-signing Hicks might come at the expense of Alan Branch‘s contract option, but he’s younger and still ascending so I think that’s an okay trade. Plus, in my early draft research, I think there’s some really good fits at DT for the Pats.

Malcom Brown was great as a rookie and will be the unquestionable top tackle in 2016. Add in healthy Dominique Easley (fingers crossed as always), with Sealver Siliga (RFA who had a somewhat down year in 2015), vet Chris Jones who’s solid rotationally and I think it’s a pretty solid group. Either way I think you just have to have Branch or Hicks back, plus a mid-round-ish pick.

 

Finding Patriots Free Agency Fits

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Football fans love flashy objects and at no time is that more true that during Free Agency. Despite a decade-and-a-half sample size, many Patriots fans can’t help but imagine all the big name free agents possibly landing in New England. Every year the story is the same — the rest of the AFC East signs all the big names while the Pats sign from the bargain bin and… win the division.

The Super Bowl is never won in March, despite the splashy signings for huge money.

Over the years it’s become apparent the kind of free agents the Patriots target. Players who were underutilized or injured and never quite lived up to expectations. Especially those “just looking to win” and willing to take veteran minimum deals. Rarely do the Patriots go out and secure an unquestioned starter in free agency for significant money.

With that in mind here are the areas where I could see the Pats making some moves externally in free agency and some players who could fit the bill.

  1. Running Back: While Matt Forte would be the flashy name that gets everyone excited, the more I consider him, the more unlikely it feels that he would take the kind of low-ball offer the Pats would need to give him. That’s why Tuesday’s release of Joique Bell makes me think he’s more in line for what the Pats do, reminiscent of the Sammy Morris signing. Morris joined the team at age 30 in 2007 and gave the Pats three solid years in a number of roles, putting up 12 touchdowns. Bell is a threat both with his hard running and receiving, but go lost in the shuffle in Detroit, having a down year in 2015. He’s just the kind of buy low, high return back that could step in and compete for the early-down role against Tyler Gaffney and a rookie draft pick.
  2. Wide Receiver: I think Brandon LaFell returns but Danny Amendola will likely have to restructure his deal again. I’d like to add some more size and some more versatility to this group, and I think former Rutgers/Bengals receiver Mohamad Sanu makes a lot of sense. Sanu is one of those receivers who can do a lot of different things and would immediately bring an element of size to the group. Again, a guy who got lost in the shuffle a bit, but checks a lot of boxes the Pats like and should be affordable. Could see a world where Sanu is swapped into the slot for Amendola, who could also be let go.
  3. Middle Linebacker: Even before Jerod Mayo‘s retirement the Pats had a need at linebacker and while one should be added via the draft, they’ll shore up depth in free agency. Dane Fletcher, who never made it off PUP after an ACL tear, was basically on a one-year injury rehab contract last year. He could make sense for depth, I think he’s better than Jonathan Freeny. Externally the Pats kicked the tires on Rolando McClain last season but he ended up in Dallas and had a bad season. He’s the kind of reclamation project the Pats might like to try, especially pairing him with old Alabama teammate Dont’a Hightower. At 6’4″, he’d make for an imposing trio with Hightower and Jamie Collins. The Jets’ Demario Davis could be another interesting option.
  4. Cornerback: I think the best option here would be to bring back Tarrell Brown, who was looking like a starter before a lingering foot problem put him on the shelf for the year. Now he has a year in Foxboro and if his foot is fully healed he could be a good veteran presence to keep in the cornerback room. There’s plenty of young talent in this group between Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Justin Coleman, Leonard Johnson and Darryl Roberts. A vet like Brown would be the perfect way to round things out.
  5. Offensive Tackle: This is a position I really have no idea on. Do they just bring back LaAdrian Waddle for some depth? The Pats always sign off-the-radar offensive linemen. There are certainly plenty of available, I just don’t think it will be a splashy signing of any kind. No, offensive tackle is my top draft target right now depending on how high the Pats can get their first pick of the draft and how much tackle value is there. Again, athleticism is the key trait to add.
  6. Interior defensive tackle: Picking up Alan Branch’s option seems like a good value move and I think the Pats should at least take a swing at retaining Akiem Hicks as unlikely as it seems that he’ll be in their price range. If one or both of those two walks, they’ll need to look for another big body for the interior rotation. The Chargers’ Kendall Reyes was a good Patriots fit coming out of UConn but has underperformed. The return of Dominique Easley can cushion the blow of losing Hicks, but not Branch.