PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

Analysis

How I Learned to Stop Worrying About Tom Brady

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For the second year in a row a New England Patriot will appear on the cover of Madden, after Rob Gronkowski’s appearance last season which lived up to the “curse” of ending the appearing player’s season early. So it’s no surprise that most of us got dry heaves when it was announced that Tom Brady would be featured this year.

Brady responded with a Facebook video that seemed to tempt fate, making things even worse.

The implications of the Madden Curse are a little overrated. Eight-and-a-half times the cover boy had the kind of season the folks at EA expected, including four All Pros and four Pro Bowls, and eight-and-a-half other times their seasons were bad or resulted in injury. That’s right, 50-50 right on the nose, which in reality is just about every NFL’s players chances of having a bad or injury-marred year.

Still, it’s just another thing for Patriots fans to worry about when in reality, they shouldn’t have all the much to worry about. Or should they?

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Patriots Add Gillislee, New-Look Backfield Complete?

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The Bills declined to match the Patriots’ two-year, $6.4 offer they signed running back Mike Gillislee on Monday, officially making Gillislee the newest Patriot and likely putting an end to LeGarrette Blount‘s time in New England.

Along with free agent signee Rex Burkhead, the Patriots have now added two running backs who should both contribute, along with James White and Dion Lewis. The entire spectrum of possibilities is now covered in the backfield, giving the Patriots multiple options to attack defenses with. There’s the pure pass catching threat that is White (though they’re no longer afraid to hand it off to him in short yardage situations as we saw multiple times in the Super Bowl), the elusive Lewis who will now be a full year removed from ACL surgery, the balanced run/pass ability of Burkhead (along with his four-down contributions) and the pure downhill running of Gillislee.

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Pats Posits: Draft Week is Here!

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Maybe it’s just me, but this draft season feels even more anticlimactic than last year’s. I guess that shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, since at least the Pats had a second-round pick last year and now they’re not scheduled to pick until the third round.

But of course if you know the Patriots, you know things could change quickly and there’s some intriguing assets they could decide to move. Before you know it the Pats could be picking somewhere in the first round.

The signs right now seem to be pointing toward the team hanging on to both Malcolm Butler and Jimmy Garoppolo. But again, this is peak disinformation time in the NFL. There are just as many false rumors started to influence the draft as there are real ones.

Let’s take a deep dive into some of the Pats issues as we countdown to Thursday night. It might be a bit less fun if the Pats don’t pick until the third round, but one thing that’s for sure is that a week from now they’ll have added a bunch of new talent, both drafted and undrafted, that will help the 2017 squad.

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Patriots 2017 Schedule Analysis

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The Patriots’ 2017 season has been revealed/leaked early in all its glory, setting up the campaign that stands between them and winning three of four Super Bowls, twice.

The Pats will play their usual slate of divisional games, while facing the NFC South and AFC West, while also matching up with the first-place teams from the AFC North and the AFC South. I know there’s always plenty of huffing and puffing about how easy the Patriots schedule can be, but it’s all set up on a rotating basis and really engineered to give the best teams the hardest competition.

The 2017 slate has a light start and a light finish, but there’s a tough road stretch in the middle, all against AFC contenders.

First things that jump out:

— Patriots have five national TV games, including the Thursday kickoff opener, their Thursday Night Football game in early October, Sunday Night Football matchups against the Falcons and Broncos, and a Monday Night Football one against the Dolphins.

— They have five-out-of-six on the road in late November/early December — at Denver, at Oakland, vs. Miami, at Buffalo, at Miami (MNF), then at Pittsburgh. That stretch will be the defining one of the regular season, especially the game in Pittsburgh. They ease in and out of the season, but those six games are the heart of the schedule against their toughest opponents in the conference.

— Three of the first five opponents are in the NFC. That will really allow them some flexibility at the start of the season. A loss in one of those wouldn’t hurt that much in the standings. Flip side is that it’s all AFC opponents from Week 7 on, making the stretch run even more vital. Still, closing with home games against the Bills and Jets isn’t exactly daunting.

— Their first AFC East game doesn’t come until Week 6, which seems incredibly late. Five of the last six are in the division. The NFL seems like they want to keep the door open on the division title as long as possible here.

— The Bye Week comes in Week 9 which is ideal, right in the middle of the season.

— There are 10 games that start at 1pm.

Let’s dive into the game-by-game analysis!

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Belichick’s Hot Jacket Lives!!!

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The biggest surprise of Super Bowl 51 was not that the Patriots came back from 25 points down to win, but that Bill Belichick decided, for some unknown reason that will befuddle me for all eternity, to remove the Flying Elvis from his beloved Hot Jacket for the game. There had been much speculation as to what Belichick would wear in the big game. Heck, it even got me on national TV as everyone speculated if he’d wear a hoodie and which one it might be.

Instead, Belichick wore his Hot Jacket, which has been his favorite coaching attire since 2013 with that one small modification. Since the Hot Jacket is no longer being made, I wondered if this meant the end of it. Or would Belichick really continue wearing an Elvis-less jacket while coaching the team?

Yes, these are the things that keep me up late at night. Well today, we got an answer.

As you can see it looks like Belichick was sitting on a new Hot Jacket, because there it is back in its fully Elvis’d glory. We might never know why Belichick decided to cut off the logo for the Super Bowl, but it’s a good bet that this new version will carry him into future seasons and continue to build upon a post-Hoodie legacy.

Putting Malcolm Butler’s 2017 RFA Contract in Historical Context

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Not gonna lie, I’m not really enjoying the last couple weeks of the “Butler’s mad, maybe they’ll get Sherman” merry-go-round. Long gone are the days of “holy hoodie we got Brandin Cooks.” Now it seems like all anyone cares about is what’s going to happen with Butler.

For the record I love Butler. And not just for the SB49-sealing interception. I believe he’s the best young corner the Pats have had since Ty Law and I do hope that he sticks around in New England for a long time. However, with the first round RFA tender Butler is scheduled for a 652 percent raise, going from making $600K in 2016 to $3.91 million in 2017.

This would also give Butler the 9th-highest average annual salary under Belichick. So I think we need to pump the brakes a bit on how much Butler is getting screwed here. By now we know this is how the Pats do business. There’s no sentimentality, it’s all about maximizing the 1-53 roster even if some feathers get ruffled.

Let’s take a look at what the Pats have paid corners in the past and how Butler fits into it all, even on his RFA first round tender.

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Has Belichick Had a Change of Heart on Cornerbacks?

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Fun little tidbit from Ian Rapoport this morning, indicating that the Patriots made a call to the Seahawks to inquire about Richard Sherman‘s availability prior to them signing Stephon Gilmore.

This leads me to wonder if Belichick has changed the way he values cornerbacks. A couple years ago I wrote this extensive piece breaking down how the Pats have never been willing to give long-term deals to cornerbacks. Sure, they’d pay a chunk of change for a season like they did with Asante Samuel on the franchise tag ($7.79 million) or a year of Darrelle Revis ($12 million), but prior to 2012 the Patriots didn’t really seem to care all that much about the position.

Then came the in-season trade for Aqib Talib, the Patriots first foray into acquiring a physical man cornerback. They retained Talib for 2013 for $4.86 million after being unable to work out a long term deal. That felt like the same old Patriots, who always preferred to focus on the front seven long before investing in a cornerback.

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