Analysis

Coffin Corner: Matt Patricia’s White Whale – 3rd and 2

October 12, 2017 by James Conway

If the Bucs employed my two-year-old at kicker, last week’s “run-it-back” defensive gameplan would have failed. Should have failed. The Patriots didn’t have time to fix the fairly large-scale issues on a short week, so they went with “same but try harder” strategy and eeked one out. But that was lucky.

The missed assignments, the wide-open receivers, the lack of a consistent pass rush, the poor tackling (Hightower even went for the up high knockout hit instead of wrapping up), all of these things were still there. Nearly two and ½ months from the beginning of training camp and the Patriots Bend But Don’t Break Defense is broken.

Some of the fixes can come from practiced areas: problems of effort, communication breakdowns, and poor tackling technique. But with the elite play and professionalism that we’ve seen from the players over their careers, it’s my belief that this is becoming a breakdown in play-calling, specifically on 3rd down and specifically in the 4th quarter.

3rd downs in the 4th quarter are the most important plays for any defense, those are the plays that silence opposing crowds, flip fields and end games. And through 5 games, it seems this is the albatross around the Patriots defensive coaching staff’s neck.

Bending and Breaking: A Historical B-D-B Look at the 2017 Pats Defense

October 11, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s driven you insane hundreds of times at this point. The Patriots defense is picked apart by a supposedly mediocre offense until miraculously stopping them in the red zone and forcing a field goal. Some seasons it feels like it happens on the first drive of every single game.

Yes, this is the Bend-Don’t-Break, a mantra muttered by football-philes like myself who have bought into Bill Belichick’s philosophy that sound coverage and tackling can make up for not attacking a quarterback with blitzers on every down. The Patriots certainly pick their spots to blitz defensive backs, but generally their philosophy is about 11 guys all doing their jobs and it’s hard to argue with the results even if the stats don’t rank them near the top of the league.

What matters most of course is points, and the Patriots have ranked below 13th in the league in points-per-drive just twice before this season.

My statistical way to breakdown the Bend Don’t Break is to rank plays- and yards-per-drive (BEND) and points- and turnovers-per-drive (BREAK). While the results in 2017 are expectedly putrid they’re not exactly in uncharted territory and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.

Here’s a look at the Bend-Don’t-Break chart to see how the 2017 Pats stack up after five games.

5 Patriots Concerns

October 10, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s hard to know at the beginning of the year what problems are real and which can be chalked up to September being more of an extension of the preseason. The Patriots experiment a bit, sit guys for even a minor ailment and are just trying to figure out what they have more than anything.

Of course, that never stops the overreactions but that’s what happens when people have been waiting seven months for football and then a shitty Patriots team gets lit up by some random team who won’t make the playoffs. It’s the same thing almost every year and there’s difficulty knowing what the real weaknesses of the team are.

But here we are five games into the season and the 2017 edition, like all teams have flaws, even if the 2017 betting odds for the next Patriots game don’t quite reflect it.

Here’s a quick hit list of the things that concern me with these Pats and what the real issues they’ll have to overcome are.

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Breaking Down Pats O-Line Struggles vs. Tampa Bay

October 9, 2017 by Sam Hollister

Despite being the first team in NFL history to allow five straight 300 yard passers in a single season, the New England Patriots defense looked immensely better Thursday night in Tampa, grinding out a 19-14 victory thanks in large part to the woes of Nick Folk. The defense, despite coming in to Thursday’s game ranking last in the NFL in points allowed and yards allowed, showed signs of improvement, and in my mind, the defense is not the unit that could cost the Patriots the shot at a return trip to the Super Bowl.

To me, the struggles of the offensive line thus far have been far more concerning than the defensive woes, because New England returns the exact same starting group as 2016, a year in which Brady was only sacked 15 times (in just 12 games), yet he has been sacked 16 times already in just five games. Brady has been hit 32 times, meaning he has been hit on 17% of his drop backs this year, a rate that is certainly not ideal for the 40-year old quarterback. Despite Brady’s seemingly impenetrable youth, it is now more important than ever to protect him, and the offensive line needs to do its job and step it up.

And it’s not like Brady needs a ton of time too; on Thursday night, when he released the ball in under 2.6 seconds (13 attempts), Brady’s quarterback rating was 116, and his adjusted completion percentage was 92.3%, meaning all Brady needs is roughly 3 seconds in order to be successful, yet the offensive line isn’t even giving him that.

Review: Wes Welker – A Football Life

October 8, 2017 by Mike Dussault

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY1WX33GLa0

Had the chance to finally catch Wes Welker‘s A Football Life and as expected it was a really good one. Unfortunately the biggest thing it left me with was feeling sad about how things ended for Welker in New England and how many Patriots fans can’t bring Welker up without mentioning that play in Super Bowl 46.

That play was a significant part of this episode and it was heartbreaking to hear how badly it affected Welker and how hard it was for him to get over it. That play overshadowed what was a remarkable career by a player who redefined a position in the NFL. Seeing Welker circa 2007 and remembering how much I loved watching him play back then was a nice reminder of what a beloved player he was early in his Patriot days.

Super Clutch: A Danny Amendola Appreciation Post

October 7, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Danny Amendola has had one of the most interesting journeys of a Patriots wide receiver. Despite not easily fitting into a Wes Welker-replacement box early on, Amendola emerged with clutch catch after clutch catch, cementing his place amongst Patriot legends. But in 2017, with Julian Edelman going down in the preseason with a torn ACL, Amendola is on pace for a career year and is only adding to his already legendary status.

In 2013 the Patriots let Wes Welker walk to Denver and signed Amendola to a five-year, $30 million contract with $10 million guaranteed. Instantly fans wondered if Amendola would be able to replace Welker’s 100 catches per year. Welker was Tom Brady‘s most reliable target for the previous five seasons and the wide receiver turnover in 2013 was worrisome. Amendola had missed 20 games in the previous two seasons and when fans smell someone who might be “injury prone” it’s hard for them to contain their groans.

Amendola instantly showed his clutch gene in his first game, the season opener in Buffalo that saw the Patriots down down 21-20 as they got the ball back for one more drive. Amendola would have four catches on the drive, including an acrobatic 10-yard catch on third-and-eight just outside of field goal range. The Pats kicked the field goal and won the game. But Amendola was injured in the game and would miss the next four weeks, giving the injury-haters plenty of fodder.

A Closer Look at Patriots’ Secondary Communication Breakdowns

October 3, 2017 by Sam Hollister

Despite the offseason speculation about the possibility of the elusive undefeated season, your 2017 New England Patriots currently sit at 2-2 after Graham Gano sent a 48-yard field goal through the uprights as time expired to give the Carolina Panthers the win last Sunday.

After the offseason addition of Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots defense was heralded by many as even better than the 2016 unit that led the NFL in points per game allowed. Despite this, the 2017 iteration of the Patriots defense is ranked dead last in the NFL in points per game, giving up 34 points on average, 18.4 more points allowed than their 2016 predecessors. They also rank last in the NFL in total yards allowed (1585) and passing yards allowed (1296), and have given up the most points through four games (128) in team history.

On Sunday, the Patriots allowed the Panthers offense, ranked 29th coming into Week 4, to put up 444 yards, which is worrisome enough, but the worst part of that stat is that it actually improved their season average, which now rests at 456.8 yards per game, also last in the league.

The silver lining to the Patriots defensive issues is that the majority of the breakdowns appear to rooted in communication issues in the secondary, with the primary culprit being the aforementioned Stephon Gilmore, who signed a five-year, 65 million dollar deal with the Patriots just months ago, 40 million of which was guaranteed.