Analysis

Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

January 24, 2018 by Sam Hollister

In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

Coffin Corner: What Will This Year’s Shocking Super Bowl Narrative Be?

January 23, 2018 by James Conway

As we all know, with the extra week before the Super Bowl there are a lot of pages that need to be viewed. A lot air time that needs to be shouted into. A lot of ‘Tomato Cans’ (read Straw Men) that Need Crushing. That usually means we get an insane, regurgitated, ALL CAPS version of the season’s scandals (unless they involve Peyton Manning’s wife chewing HGH like Pez). But this year, I think we will see something decidedly different. Before we look forward, let’s reflect on the media narratives going into the Patriots previous eight appearances:

Unfortunate Brady Injury Allowed Pats to Control the AFCCG Narrative

January 20, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Last week the Patriots were on the defensive in the media all week as the Seth Wickersham not-really-a-bombshell article dominated airwaves and press conferences. This week, things have been a little different, albeit from not ideal circumstances, an injury to Tom Brady’s hand.

The hand story was even strong enough to make an impact on NFL lines but there was no mistake that the Patriots were driving the Brady story, not being dragged along by it. The team went out of their way to make sure everyone was aware of the injury, from announcing Brady would not speak to the media and would be on the injury report, to having Brady wear his gloves and coyly avoid questions when he did finally speak on Friday. Heck they even had Hoyer in two gloves on Friday during practice after he was only wearing one on Thursday.

Behind the scenes things seemed even more haphazard. I’m not a big “sources” guy and I don’t really care to try and break stories, but there are people who occasionally send me inside info. Sometimes it’s been right, sometimes it’s been wrong, and that’s why I always just sit on it and see what happens. This week was no exception, but the info ran the gamut from Brian Hoyer is going to play to it’s no big deal.

At this point I think the “no big deal” is the truth for more reasons than just Kirk Minihane and Michael Felger suddenly entering a world of non-bullshit-speculation to reassure everyone it was just a few stitches and Brady would be fine. The Patriots seemed to squeeze every last ounce of juice from the story they could get, and even Brady had that subtle smile at his presser that just made me think this was being blown up to control the narrative.

An In-Depth Look at Blake Bortles and the Jaguars Offense

January 17, 2018 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots rolled over the Titans Saturday night to the tune of a 35-14 blowout that clinched a spot in the franchises’ seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (is that good?). Up next are the surprising Jaguars, who toppled the Steelers in exciting fashion last Sunday, hanging 45 points on Pittsburgh’s defense. However, I do not think that score should truly worry Patriots fans, as Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles and Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Sure, Bortles played well against Pittsburgh, but I think he will need to play almost perfect in order to come into Foxborough and dethrone the champs.

Sure, Bortles did have a good day (especially for Blake Bortles standards), but if you look closer at the numbers, it is easy to see why the Patriots should be able to lock down Bortles come Sunday. For starters, Bortles only completed 10 passes belong the line of scrimmage. The Jags, rightfully so, simplified their game plan to the max against Pittsburgh, and expect them to use the same formula in Foxboro this Sunday, which should be a positive for New England.

Against Pittsburgh, Bortles was not sacked, and was only pressured on eight of his 28 drop-backs, just 28% of the time he dropped back. When he was kept clean, Bortles had a passer rating of 115.5, but when pressure was applied, his passer rating dropped to an abysmal 39.6.

Injury-Riddled Pats Still Crushing Tomato Cans

January 11, 2018 by Mike Dussault

NFL 2017 Season, Top 5, impact on teams by players lost to injury (Lost-av metric, weighting by 2016 quality of injured players)

1 IND
2 NEW
3 NYG
4 ARI
5 WAShttps://t.co/KbGetSeVfH

— Man Games Lost NFL (@ManGamesLostNFL) January 11, 2018

By now you know the Patriots injured reserve list in 2017 is long and distinguished. Here’s a reminder of what it looks like via Patriots.com and it’s not a pretty picture.

According to ManGamesLost.com (subscription required) the Patriots ranked second overall in the league in lost 2016 performance. Add in that the Pats were particularly hit hard by free agency departures on defense, compounded by the retirement of Rob Ninkovich and it’s understated how different the 2017 team is from the one that won the last Super Bowl.

How the Pats COULD Lose to the Titans

January 11, 2018 by Adam Magnacca

Hear me out, the Patriots are not invincible, and anyone who has followed the team knows this year in particular they are vulnerable. Now, in 18(!) years the team has shown great resiliency and strength in overcoming absurd and borderline insurmountable obstacles. However, they can be beaten. Maybe. If the 2010 Jets did it, why not the 2017 Titans?

For the Tennessee Titans this week, they can advance to the AFC Championship with a perfect game.

Here’s what that would look like:

Five Key Patriots For a Super Bowl Run

January 10, 2018 by Mike Dussault

As I’ve written a couple times the past week, I’m having a tough time getting an exact bead on this Patriots team. Of course, this is a 13-3 team with homefield and the greatest quarterback of all time coming off an MVP season. So maybe I’m a little silly for thinking this season is anything different than what we’ve seen over the last 17 seasons.

Still, each team is unique and if there’s anything about this team that stands out it’s that major injuries barely registered with them. In past years losing players the caliber of Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower would’ve at cost the team another loss or two, and they would’ve have locked up the top seed. But this team did, and that counts for a lot because we know how tough the Pats are at home in January.

Outside of the obvious Tom Brady, here are five Patriots that I think are key to the Pats’ Super Bowl hopes.