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Patriots Gameplan: The 2018 Offseason

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And just like that, the team-building portion of the season has commenced. We’re on to 2018.

Belichick and McDaniels staying, at least one more go-round with Tom Brady, and a bunch of really good players returning from injury. As we turn the page on 2017 and the loss to the Eagles, next fall is already looking promising if only by getting Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower back alone. Not to mention Derek Rivers, Harvey Langi, Shea McClellin and others like Tony Garcia, etc.

There are two places the Patriots must start — left tackle and running back. From there the dominos will fall, into external free agency and the draft.

Here are the headlines of what’s coming this offseason and an early feel on the needs.

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McDaniels is Staying with Patriots

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The Patriots have done the seemingly impossible by only increasing and adding to the drama and intrigue since losing Super Bowl 52. Josh McDaniels spurned the Colts after a long sit-down with Robert and Jonathan Kraft and Bill Belichick and will remain with the team.

Belichick is still locked for 2018 according to Mike Reiss, but it would appear McDaniels is now the successor-in-waiting, even if no assurances were made.

Given how the Super Bowl unfolded I think pretty much everyone can agree it was on defense where the changes were most needed. McDaniels and Brady have a special relationship as we saw in Tom vs. Time — keeping that intact for the rest of Brady’s career will ensure they squeeze every last bit out of the quarterback.

Brady and McDaniels can just keep on trucking, welcoming back Julian Edelman and Malcom Mitchell to an already-deep group.

The questions for them start at tackle and running back. I would bet a two-year deal like they did with Matt Light in 2011 makes sense with Solder. Then it’s a coin toss with either Dion Lewis or Rex Burkhead. Keep one, add in mid/low-level free agency and draft. It will be interesting to see how they evolve.

After almost losing everyone but Belichick, getting back McDaniels and all the coaches he was taking with him (ST Joe Judge, QB Jerry Shuplinski) is a welcome relief. I don’t know what exactly it means for Belichick, whether he plans on transitioning to more of a general manager role or just peacing out, but it appears McDaniels will be the next head coach, maybe as soon as 2019.

Brady/Belichick Docs Save Super Bowl Week

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUdEJJya6T8

I’m pretty sure the media broke me this week. It’s surprising because it wasn’t on the heels of some big controversy, it was a fairly mundane week of your average Super Bowl hype overload, but for some reason, more than ever, I just found myself done with everything anyone had to say about the Patriots. I flipped through a couple moments of all the usual talk radio shows, just to check in, never to actually consume, and found absolutely nothing being said that interested me.

It all peaked with Alex Reimer affair which was just the perfect example of how gross it has all become. The rest, from local to national coverage, was just a rehash of a seasons-worth of mellow drama or that everyone is sick of the cheating Patriots. Probably not a surprise that the Patriots started their own Not Done network this week, because outside of there and some select actual football shows out there, it was just a mess.

People like Rob Parker have made hating the Patriots his old act, while the local yokels on the radio are in a constant disingenuous search for which button to push on their listeners.

I found myself really wondering why anyone tunes into this stuff, especially local sports radio. Every day I see hoards of people raging against the media and their Patriots takes. That rage only fuels the fire on the other side and around and around we go, with the actual game and analysis of the sport being left in the dust. It’s just been a constant reminder that the only way to win against the hot takes is not to play and that’s why I’ve just taken to tuning it all out and focusing here on what interests me — football.

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How Can Pats Stop Eagles’ Run-Pass Option?

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By now you’ve probably seen some mention of the Eagles and their vaunted Run-Pass Option, also known as a packaged play. It’s one of the latest trends in football and Philly has used it to excellent effect this season, starting with Carson Wentz and continuing with backup Nick Foles.

Here’s a quick look at what they look like:

As you can see it’s tough to defend for a similar reason to why the Patriots offense is tough to defend in general — both adjust post-snap to what the defense does and exploits where they’re weakest.

Here’s the Patriots getting burned by the Jags and their own RPO.

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How Do Eagles Stack Up to Pats’ Past Super Bowl Challenges?

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With one week to go until Super Bowl 52 the Patriots-Eagles matchup is becoming pretty clear. Any consolation Patriots fans might’ve taken from facing Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz went(z) out the window after Foles systematically destroyed a vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense in the NFC Championship.

Then came this quote from respected analyst and former Patriots staffer Mike Lombardi:

“[The Eagles] really don’t have an identity offensively. They are very unpredictable and they play left-handed. Belichick is so good at making a team play left-handed, but it is kind of hard to make a left-handed team play left-handed.”

Hmmm, that’s not good for my pregame stress levels.

Let’s take a look at how the Eagles stack up against the Patriots previous seven Super Bowl opponents by my favorite stats — points and DVOA efficiency.

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Can Patriots Solve Takeaway Drought?

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I enjoyed watching the below video, taken from a presentation at Notre Dame that Matt Patricia gave. James Light has posted numerous excerpts from it, they’re all fabulous, but this one sparked my attention to a detail that has really flown under the radar with this Patriots defense — their lack of takeaways.


Outside of not forcing a turnover in their 2010 divisional loss to the Jets, this is the first time under Belichick the Patriots have failed to get a takeaway in the playoffs. And it’s not really that surprising for this Patriots defense. They’ve had just two takeaways in the last seven games, including zero in their last four.

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Patriots Super Bowl First Quarters vs. Fourth Quarters

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Mike Reiss brought up one of the Patriots most impossible and infamous stats to Bill Belichick yesterday, that the Patriots had yet to score a point in the first quarter of any of their seven Super Bowl appearances. Belichick scoffed even though the players said last year he was all over them about getting off to a fast start against the Falcons, which of course did not happen.

For as remarkable as the Patriots’ dominance since the early 2000s has been to never have scored a point out of the gate is just as remarkable and it’s hard to even guess why. The team has run the gamut from a defense-first squad to an unstoppable offensive one, but it never made a difference. Here are the Pats’ overall stats from Super Bowl first quarters:

Team Defense Table
Play Results Play Type
Tm G Plays ToGo Yds 1st% TO% TD FG 1D Int Fum Sack Pass Rush Punt FG
NYG 2 18 8.00 5.17 33.3% .0% 6 11 7
PHI 1 15 8.07 3.00 6.7% .0% 1 7 5 3
SEA 1 20 7.10 3.75 25.0% 5.0% 5 1 11 8 1
CAR 1 19 9.11 4.68 15.8% .0% 3 9 7 2 1
STL 1 11 7.36 4.55 18.2% .0% 2 5 4 2
ATL 1 17 9.24 4.24 23.5% .0% 4 2 10 5 2
Totals 7 100 8.18 4.24 21.0% 1.0% 0 0 21 1 0 2 53 36 10 1
Pct 7% 0% 0% 21% 1% 0% 2% 53% 36% 10% 1%
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/25/2018.

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