I enjoyed watching the below video, taken from a presentation at Notre Dame that Matt Patricia gave. James Light has posted numerous excerpts from it, they’re all fabulous, but this one sparked my attention to a detail that has really flown under the radar with this Patriots defense — their lack of takeaways.
New England Patriots Turnover Circuit: pic.twitter.com/q1az9khnpP
— James Light (@JamesALight) January 28, 2018
Outside of not forcing a turnover in their 2010 divisional loss to the Jets, this is the first time under Belichick the Patriots have failed to get a takeaway in the playoffs. And it’s not really that surprising for this Patriots defense. They’ve had just two takeaways in the last seven games, including zero in their last four.
On the season they were 25th in takeaways, tied for 3rd-fewest forced fumbles with six, and tied for 18th overall with 12 interceptions. In terms of my Bend Don’t Break stats this Patriots defense had .102 takeaways-per-drive, 24th in the NFL, and Belichick’s second-worst total of all time (2005).
There’s no question the Patriots defense has come on and played good football when the pressure was on, but the lack of takeaways scares me because when they don’t get takeaways in the playoffs their seasons end without a Super Bowl.
In season-ending losses from 2010, 2011 (SB46), 2012, 2013 and 2015 the Patriots combined for one single takeaway — a Peyton Manning fumble in the first quarter of the 2015 AFC Championship that resulted in a Patriots touchdown and subsequent missed extra point.
The Super Bowl-winning 2014 and 2016 teams both had six takeaways in their three respective playoff wins. They got a single one in each of those Super Bowl games but both were absolutely the difference between winning and losing — Malcolm Butler‘s goal line interception and Dont’a Hightower‘s game-changing strip sack.
There are so many different angles to analyze Super Bowl 52. The Eagles have a diverse offense that will provide numerous problems for the Patriots defense, but there might be no more important stat than who plays safest with the ball.
Philly had two turnovers against the Falcons in the divisional round, but none against the Vikings in the championship. They were 4th in the league in turnover differential.
Once again we’re back to the question we started the season with — who will bring the new clutch plays this season? On offense we saw Danny Amendola step up and make the plays Julian Edelman made in recent years. On defense Stephon Gilmore effectively ended the AFC Championship with a pass defense that was essentially a takeaway since it came on fourth down.
More players, especially on defense, must step up and make those critical plays.
In the Super Bowl everything is magnified and getting a crucial takeaway at a key moment might make or break the Patriots hopes of repeating as champs for a second time this century.
Mike,
Love your website. Thanks for all the hard work. Do you think the Patriots D will be able to confuse Nick Foles with some different looks and get him to make a few bad throws possibly resulting in an interception?
I think that’s going to be one of the biggest challenges for them. I’d expect a lot of fluidity up front to keep him guessing who is coming and who is going.
Maybe this is Chris Hogan’s time to be a super bowl hero.
The thought that also crossed my mind is how good this Patriots offense is to really not get a significant number of short fields and still put up so many points per game. Pretty amazing.