Third down is the most critical down in football and usually the Patriots are one of the best offenses in the league. In the last four seasons they ranked 6th (2014) and 4th (2016) when they won the Super Bowl and when they didn’t they ranked 16th (2013) and 11th (2015).
This season the loss of Julian Edelman loomed large for then third down offense. Edelman was then most targeted and reliable receiver with the game on the line. However early in then season the Pats didn’t fare too badly,
Through the first eight games, the Pats ranked 3rd on third down, converting 45.9 percent of their chances.
But since then they’ve fallen off dramatically, to the point where over the last four games they’ve converted just 30.2 percent of their third downs, second-worst in the league. All of Tom Brady‘s five interceptions in the last four games have come on third down.
These struggles are coming at the wrong time of year. Is this a critical flaw? Is there any hope in sight? Let’s take a deeper look.
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Perhaps the easiest place to start is with Chris Hogan, who was the most targeted receiver on third down through the first eight games. Hogan’s absence since the Chargers game, though he did dress and have a catch against the Dolphins in early December, has had a big impact.
It’s also necessary to point out the lack of Rob Gronkowski and the effect that had on an 0-for-11 3rd down performance against Miami which significantly hurt the Pats’ numbers. Still, the overall effectiveness is concerning.
Here’s a closer look at the targets on third down in the first half of the season:
| Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt ▼ |
Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D |
| Chris Hogan | 18 | 12 | 66.7% | 133 | 2 | 8 |
| James White | 17 | 13 | 76.5% | 130 | 0 | 9 |
| Danny Amendola | 17 | 11 | 64.7% | 145 | 0 | 10 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 15 | 13 | 86.7% | 218 | 3 | 11 |
| Brandin Cooks | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 79 | 0 | 4 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 0 | .0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 7 | 0 | 0 |
And here’s how they’ve looked in the second half of the season.
| Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | Rece | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt ▼ |
Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | 1D |
| Danny Amendola | 11 | 6 | 54.5% | 61 | 1 | 5 |
| James White | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 32 | 1 | 4 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 87 | 0 | 5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 41 | 1 | 2 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 0 | .0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| James Develin | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 0 | .0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 0 | .0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most glaring? That in the first half of the season the top four receivers were all well over 60 percent catch rate. In the second half just the less-used James White is over 60 percent with more than five targets. You can also add that White and Rex Burkhead are now currently injured, taking away a good chunk of these conversions.
Also notable is how Brandin Cooks is just not a third down receiver. On the season Cooks has just six third-down catches on 23 targets.
The Patriots are still ranked 8th overall on third down with an overall conversion percentage of 41.8 in 2017, but this would be the fifth-worst rate under Belichick and Brady.
Getting Hogan back, along with Malcolm Mitchell is what the offense needs and if they can both get out there this weekend against the Jets it would give them a jump on the playoffs.
Can they stop the bleeding? Or do these number speak to bigger problems of defenses figuring out the Pats third down attack as the season progressed? We won’t know for sure until we see the offense get some of the weaponry back.
There’s no question though, if the third down struggles continue the Patriots offense could face some big problems in then playoffs.
[…] for Hogan I think he’s a game changer for the offense. His absence has really hurt on third down as neither Phillip Dorsett nor Kenny Britt have been […]