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Bend Don’t Break Update: ’18 Pats D Hits Top 5

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKKjGeraFE

The cat is out of the bag on the 2018 Patriots defense, they’re actually pretty good. Their defining trait not a dominating front seven like the 2001-2007 defenses, but a shutdown secondary and a coordinated front that all work together.

At his core, Bill Belichick is a conservative defensive coach. He wants a defense that tackles well and doesn’t get beat deep. He’ll be aggressive in key spots and disguise plenty but generally, it’s a four-man rush with seven in coverage. When that four-man rush contains and constricts the quarterback they’re extremely effective. When they’re six-man rush stunts do the same they’re dominant.

On the road, they’ve been guilty of being out of sync. In each of the first three months, they had a defensive stinker on the road. Even the win over Kansas City wasn’t great. They were probably a little lucky to escape Chicago with a win.

Schedule & Game Results Table
Scor Scor Defe Defe Defe Defe Defe Expe
Week Day Date Rec Opp Tm Opp 1stD TotYd PassY RushY TO Defense
▲
2 Sun September 16 boxscore L 1-1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20 31 27 480 376 104 2 -18.76
7 Sun October 21 boxscore W 5-2 @ Chicago Bears 38 31 29 453 319 134 2 -16.89
10 Sun November 11 boxscore L 7-3 @ Tennessee Titans 10 34 23 385 235 150 -14.31
3 Sun September 23 boxscore L 1-2 @ Detroit Lions 10 26 25 414 255 159 1 -13.69
6 Sun October 14 boxscore W 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs 43 40 18 446 352 94 2 -10.83
9 Sun November 4 boxscore W 7-2 Green Bay Packers 31 17 22 367 250 117 1 -4.92
12 Sun November 25 boxscore W 8-3 @ New York Jets 27 13 18 338 264 74 1 -2.42
5 Thu October 4 boxscore W 3-2 Indianapolis Colts 38 24 26 439 355 84 3 -2.15
1 Sun September 9 boxscore W 1-0 Houston Texans 27 20 21 325 158 167 2 8.05
13 Sun December 2 boxscore W 9-3 Minnesota Vikings 24 10 16 296 201 95 2 9.14
4 Sun September 30 boxscore W 2-2 Miami Dolphins 38 7 11 172 116 56 2 12.47
8 Mon October 29 boxscore W 6-2 @ Buffalo Bills 25 6 16 333 287 46 2 20.98
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/6/2018.

Where the next two games fall on this chart will tell us everything we need to know about where the defense ends up at the end of the season. For now we can see that they stack up pretty well when stacked in my Bend Don’t Break Ratings Chart.

Only twice before (03, 07)  have they been 15th or better in all four areas. I’d have them about fifth right now in all time Bend Don’t Break rankings. The don’t really bend and they don’t really break. Their lowest ranking is the least weighted (plays-per-drive) and their best are the most important, points and takeaways.

  1. 2003
  2. 2007
  3. 2006
  4. 2004
  5. 2018

None of this will matter if the Pats lay two more defensive road stink bombs against the Dolphins and Steelers. We’re lucky they must face their weakness dead on. If they can’t win on the road in the regular season they’ll have to play on the road in the playoffs.

The silver lining x-factor on the road in the playoffs though? Takeaways. See 2005 and 2006.

This is a veteran secondary that is more than capable of game-changing interceptions. The entire defense has consistently produced turnovers all season, with multiple in eight of 12 games. So even if the Pats do stumble here in the next couple weeks and end up in KC don’t write them off just yet.

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