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Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytics Update

December 20, 2018 by Mike Dussault

It was just a couple weeks ago when the Bend Don’t Break Defense Analytic had the Patriots ranking as one of the top five defenses under Belichick. Two games later, things have planed off a bit as you might expect, but there’s one consistent factor that gives the Pats’ defense hope for the playoffs.

Let’s dive into the changes in the four key areas:

Yards-Per-Drive: 11th to 18th

With a number of chunk plays against both the Dolphins and Steelers, the area to take the biggest hit was the yardage they’re giving up. Third down hasn’t even been the problem as you’d usually expect from the Pats BDB defense, it’s been the early downs where they’ve been gashed.

Plays-per-Drive Got Better!

One reason to take these stats collectively is that the plays-per-drive actually improved, but only because teams were cutting through the Pats D like warm butter on their scoring drives. Their plays-per-drive actually dropped from 5.86 to 5.83, both ranking them at 10th in the league. They’re either getting off the field quick or giving up quick scoring drives. Again, it all starts on first down for the Pats defense.

Takeaways Staying Strong

The true x-factor for this defense in the playoffs are takeaways. They’ve consistently gotten them all season long. 2011, arguably the worst Patriots defense, got by simply because they got interceptions and forced fumbles. This defense can easily do the same, though when they dry up it can result in a loss, see Super Bowl 46.

In nine games they’ve had two takeaways or more. Just twice, road losses to the Titans and Dolphins, did they fail to get one. They were at 9th two weeks ago and improved their rate since them, however they fell to 10th in the league. This is the 9th time a Patriots team has ranked in the top 10 in takeaways, including teams like 2003, 2004 and 2007.

Inconsistent

Overall the Patriots defense sits at 16th in Drive Success Rate, smack dab in the middle of the league and that sounds about right. They’re average because their highs are high and their lows are low. At home they’ve been better, on the road worse.

The question remains if the defense we’ve seen at home can show up on the road or in Atlanta in the playoffs?

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