Sam Hollister

Young Guards Keying Patriots Resurgent Ground Attack

December 14, 2016 by Sam Hollister

Save for two terrible plays on special teams, the Patriots put forth their best overall effort of the season Monday night against Baltimore, led by a defensive effort unrivaled by anything we have seen out of this unit thus far in 2016, and, of course, Tom Brady and his 406 yards passing and three touchdowns. But an after-thought of sorts of the performance was the Patriots ability to run the football against the best rush defense in the NFL. Entering the Week 13 contest, the Ravens defense led the NFL in yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and rush yards allowed per game – not to mention they led the NFL in points allowed per game. In short, running the ball figured to be a tall task for the Patriots Monday night, especially considering it has been a long time since the Patriots have had a rushing attack of a high enough caliber to have success against the best rush defenses in football.

Prior to the matchup, the Ravens allowed only 3.4 yards per carry and just 75.5 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots rushed for 94 yards on the ground, and averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and while an uptick of only 0.3 yards more per carry doesn’t seem like a lot, consider this: the Ravens held Lesean McCoy and the Bills to a mere 2.7 YPC, Latavius Murray and the Raiders to just 3.3 YPC, and Leveon Bell and the Steelers to only 2.0 YPC. In fact, LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.0 YPC against Baltimore on Monday, more than all three backs I mentioned. He even put up a higher average than NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliot did against the Ravens in their matchup earlier this season (Elliot averaged 3.9 YPC).

How the 2016 Gronk-less Pats Stack Up to 2012 & 2013

December 6, 2016 by Sam Hollister

The news of Rob Gronkowski’s third trip to season-ending Injured Reserve has caused quite a stir within Patriot Nation, and to a lesser extent the entire league. While the news has elicited some experts to declare the AFC suddenly wide open, other analysts have gone the opposite direction, choosing to not sound the alarm quite yet, keeping faith in the greatest quarterback-coach tandem in the NFL’s history to overcome the loss of arguable their most important player (save for TB12).

The Patriots win-loss record without Gronkowski is not great; they are just 14-5 without him in the regular season, and 1-2 in the postseason, which certainly supports the belief that the Patriots cannot win the Super Bowl without Gronkowski. Adding to this narrative is Brady’s statistics with and without the prolific tight end. With a healthy Gronkowski, Brady’s completion percentage is 65.3%, with a 7.9 yards per attempt average and a 103.5 passer rating. However, with Gronkowski sidelined, Brady’s completion percentage dips to 57.3%, while averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.

The most alarming measure is his passer rating; it dips over twenty points to just 82.4, which would rank 34th in the NFL this season, behind fellow Patriot quarterback Jacoby Brissett (83.9) and only one spot above Geno Smith. Effectively, Tom Brady turns into a third-string quarterback when Gronkowski is unable to play.

Taking a Look at the Patriots Most Improved Player

November 29, 2016 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots eked out another nail-biting victory Sunday in East Rutherford, improving to 9-2 on the year and keeping pace with the Oakland Raiders for the top spot in the AFC. While Brady and the Patriots offense struggled at times to get going, the offensive line did a nice job against the formidable front seven of the Jets, headlined by elite talents Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, complemented by the 2015 7th-overall pick Leonard Williams.

Tackles Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon led the way to the unit’s second clean sheet of the year, as they allowed no sacks and only surrendered four QB hits. Cannon’s play thus far in 2016 has been a revelation when compared to how abysmally he played last season. Cannon was one of the main culprits in the complete and utter failure by the offensive line against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game in January, and in my mind, cost the Patriots a chance at a Super Bowl. After that game, I hoped to never see Cannon don a Patriots uniform again, but to his credit, he has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in his sixth season in the NFL.

An Appreciation of James Develin

November 24, 2016 by Sam Hollister

develin

Well, it was another relatively easy victory for the Patriots despite defensive struggles in the first half. It was good to see the defense, specifically the secondary, rebound a bit in the second half, as they were able to do just enough for the Patriots to coast through the majority of the fourth quarter, giving Brady and Edelman a victorious homecoming.

Brady had another great day, throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns, but the rushing attack stole the show in my opinion. The Patriots rushed for their highest yards per carry total on the season, averaging 5.7 YPC, and racked up their second-highest yardage total on the ground of the year. A large part of that success was the play of James Develin, who played a season-high 34 snaps and constantly carved out lanes for LeGarrette Blount to run through on the way to his second-highest rushing total thus far in 2016.

Examining the Defensive Line’s Struggles Against Seattle

November 16, 2016 by Sam Hollister

Sunday night saw the Patriots defense completely and totally dominated by Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense, with the Seahawks much-maligned offensive line controlling the line of scrimmage for the majority of the game. While the Patriots defense has underperformed for the majority of the season thus far, this was a new low for the unit, who were gashed time and time again by Wilson and running back CJ Prosise.

While Seattle is not without a lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball, their offense thus far in 2016 has been a mediocre unit with one glaring weakness that nearly every team they played had been able to exploit: the aforementioned offensive line. Because of this, I pin the majority of the blame for the defenses struggles on the defensive line, who were unable to generate any kind of pressure on Wilson to affect his throws, and failed to contain Prosise, who had just 30 career rushing yards to his name prior to the contest.

Examining Dion Lewis’s Role in the Patriots Offense

November 9, 2016 by Sam Hollister

With reports that the Patriots are holding out hope that Dion Lewis will be able to return in a limited fashion this Sunday against Seattle, I thought I would examine his role in the offense last season and the difference in usage between Lewis and his replacement, James White. The Patriots have until next Thursday to take Lewis off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list in order for him to be able to play at all this season.

In Lewis’s absence, James White has done a more than admirable job filling in as the receiving back. Last season, in nine games without Lewis, White had 40 catches for 410 yards, good for 10.3 yards per catch, and added four touchdowns through the air. While Lewis had nine more catches in two fewer games, White’s average yards per catch was just a half yard behind Lewis’s 10.8 mark. He even had Pro Football Focus’s third-best receiving grade by running backs last season, trailing only former Patriot Danny Woodhead and the Lions Theo Riddick.

While White’s numbers in the running game were far worse than Lewis’s (22 carries for just 56 yards last season, and averaged a paltry 2.5 yard per carry following Lewis’s injury), he was not really asked to fill the void Lewis’s injury left in the running game (as evident by the fact he averaged only 2.4 carries a game). White is a back who thrives in one area, the passing game, but is unable to shoulder the type of load Lewis was able to take on because Lewis is simply the more well-rounded back with a higher talent level. White is tremendous at what he is asked to do, and remains near the top of PFF’s receiving grades for running backs (he ranks 3rd again this season), but Lewis still has a far greater influence on the offense as a whole.

Breaking Down the Patriots’ Cornerbacks

November 1, 2016 by Sam Hollister

Patriots Cornerbacks

The Patriots came away with yet another relatively easy victory Sunday, this time dispatching the Bills thanks to another stellar performance by Tom Brady and the offense. The defense held its own after a discouraging opening drive, but issues remained throughout the game that have been evident throughout the season. While Malcolm Butler is playing at an Pro-Bowl level, the player across from him, which has rotated between Logan Ryan and Eric Rowe, has been subpar at best. Looking at the Patriots roster, the second corner spot seems to be the teams biggest weakness, and it seems to be the one spot that has the potential to cripple the Patriots when the playoffs come around.

The most surprising thing about the struggles in the secondary is that the unit was ranked third coming into this season by Pro Football Focus, trailing only Denver and Arizona, and ranking ahead of units like the Legion of Boom in Seattle and the star-studded secondary in Minnesota. The Patriots secondary was ranked so high in large part due to the play of Logan Ryan last season, who actually ranked ahead of his teammate Butler in 2015. Ryan finished as PFF’s 11-best corner in the league, with Butler coming in as the 24th ranked corner. Remember, last season Ryan effectively shut down the likes of Deandre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, and seemed to be trending towards the elite status that Butler has reached this season (Butler is PFF’s 4th-best corner this season, with a 86.7 grade). Instead, he has gone in the opposite direction, getting beat time and time again, leading to a benching in Week 7 against the Steelers, and getting replaced by Eric Rowe in the starting lineup this past Sunday.

So far this season, Ryan has allowed a 63% completion percentage when targeted, giving up 33 catches for 403 yards on 52 targets, allowing 12 yards per catch. He has also given up two touchdowns. The past three weeks Ryan has been even worse, allowing a completion percentage of 70%, and averaging 16 yards per catch when in coverage. His performance this season is so far removed from his outstanding play in 2015 that has regressed from 11th-ranked corner last season to 59th in 2016.