Mike Dussault

Patriots-Steelers AFCCG Film Review: Defense Edition

January 24, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The All-22 came out early this week, quickly squashing my dilemma of reviewing the AFC Championship or moving on to start getting familiar with the Falcons. Overall, this was everything we’ve come to expect this season out of the Patriots defense. They bent at times, but it was near impossible to break them.

The two goal-line stands were key moments in the game and really two sequences where the Patriots defense can hang their hat. They were consistently physical at the point of attack and even when they made mistakes, those mistakes were quickly tackled and the defense was refocused entirely on the next play.

Here’s some thoughts on what else stood out from the defense in the AFC Championship…

Five Early Pats-Falcons Super Bowl 51 Links

January 23, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Well, it was nice to wake up the morning after winning the AFC Championship without the entire NFL world standing outside our window with pitchforks. Yes, it’s still sinking in that the Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Despite the Patriots being the best team in AFC by a considerable margin, you never take these things for granted and I’m going to savor every moment of the next two weeks.

Here’s some things to share and some commentary as the Patriots-Falcons hype has already begun…

1. We’re at that point now where it seems like every time the Patriots win a game, especially a playoff game, a bunch of records fall. Here’s a full list from Patriots.com of all the records that were broken or will be broken in the Super Bowl. My favorites:

Tom Brady can tie Charles Haley as the only two players with five Super Bowl rings. Brady will also set the record for most Super Bowls played.
Bill Belichick would surpass Chuck Noll with five Super Bowl championships. He will already set the record for most appearances by a coach (10).

2. Predictably everyone thinks SB51 will be a shootout, but the Patriots defense is so sound I think they’ll force Atlanta to work harder for yards than they’ve had to. This chart from PFF sums it up.

The deep ball could be the difference in #SB51. Matt Ryan’s top areas are 20+ yards downfield, but the Patriots’ D has limited big plays. pic.twitter.com/OZnAFeG2Sy

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 23, 2017

3. I always enjoy Andy Benoit’s strategy pieces and he immediately dropped this one on Monday laying out the potential matchups. Here was his general feeling about how the Pats’ defense should approach the Falcons offense.

[W]e see a defense that mostly sticks to straight man or zone, rarely employing hybrid coverages. A defense that, like any, occasionally blitzes a fifth rusher, but far more often is content to rush the usual four. A defense that changes its fronts frequently, particularly against the run, but doesn’t go too far out of its way to disguise them. In simplest terms, the Patriots just line up and play. They rely on sound, fundamental execution. This is how they must approach the Falcons, and it must be done very physically. Line up in straight man-to-man and hit your individual opponent in the mouth. If the Patriots aren’t flagged four or five times for various illegal uses of hands—be it holding, illegal contact, hands to the face, maybe even pass interference—they’re playing too soft.

4. Greg A. Bedard weighed in with his early thoughts on the matchup as well, matching a general sentiment that both teams should move the ball, but it looks like the Pats defense might have a small edge over the Falcons’.

To beat Brady, you have to disguise and change up both the pressure and coverage looks on just about every snap. The Falcons, to this point, have not shown the ability to do that. That will be an important factor in the game. Ryan has trouble with tight, disciplined coverage. With Malcolm Butler locking up either Julio Jones or Mohamed Sanu, and Logan Ryan on the other with safety help, Ryan may have to make a living throwing to the running backs and TEs Levine Toilolo and Austin Hooper. The Patriots have had more issues with supporting actors than those in starring roles. The Falcons have the ability to exploit that.

5. PFF has 10 Stats to Know about Super Bowl 51 and this one is the scariest:

Including the playoffs, Matt Ryan’s passer rating when kept clean is 131.1, the best mark in the NFL by over 10 points.

Any QB can play well when he’s not under pressure, right? While that may be true, the level Matt Ryan is playing at right now when he is kept clean is a level above anyone else in the league. He has been virtually unstoppable this season when he hasn’t been pressured, and if the Patriots can’t apply some heat in the Super Bowl, it’s going to be a long day for their secondary, given the efficiency with which Ryan has been carving up the rest of the league from clean pockets.

Pats Posits: Year of the GOAT

January 22, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots are headed to their NFL-record ninth Super Bowl after capturing their seventh AFC Championship by handily defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 36-17. It was a signature Tom Brady win, as he set the franchise playoff yardage record (384 yards, three TDs, 0 INTs) in his NFL-record 24th playoff victory.

Chris Hogan had the game of his life with nine catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns while battling through a thigh injury. Julian Edelman was reliable as ever with eight catches for 118 yards, keeping the chains moving at critical moments like he always does.

After I spent all week pumping the Pats’ diversity and depth on offense, they instead put on a surgical dissection of the Steelers’ defense leaning heavily on just Hogan and Edelman.

The running game that had been a consistent staple all season was largely missing until the very end. They had just 57 yards rushing. But it was all they needed as Brady picked apart the Steelers’ secondary like we’ve become used to seeing.

The turning point in the game came on the second play when Le’Veon Bell tweaked his groin and was done for the day. The Steelers lost the catalyst of their playoff run and once they fell behind on then scoreboard it was an impossible uphill climb.

The Patriots defense, facing questions about their level of competition all season, stepped up with a gem. Shutting down the run (54 yards allowed) was the first key. Stopping Antonio Brown was the second (seven catches, 77 yards). Two crucial goal-line defensive stands and two takeaways showed how good the underrated Pats’ defense really is.

All in all this was their best performance of the season, especially given the stage. And now, they’re on to Super Bowl 51 to face a Falcons team that is on fire. It’s hard to believe it sometimes, but the Patriots’ dynasty is still very much alive and well, and almost old enough for a driver’s license.

More on the Steelers, Falcons and legacy in the Posits…

Pats Posits: Calm Before the AFCCG Storm

January 21, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Today’s the day to get your mind right and mentally prepare for what’s about to go down tomorrow. There’s been plenty to digest over the last few days, here’s a few thoughts on some of the more interesting bits of news.

After thinking about it more and more, I think we might see a Cover 2 Zone game from the Patriots defense instead of matching up Butler on Brown as most seem to be expecting. Why? The Pats moved to a lot more Cover 2 in the second half of the season and got pretty good at it. Bell is the one who scares me the most, so if they run nickel personnel with three safeties, which means Patrick Chung is in the box or slot, they’d not only have a pretty stout front but they’d have help over the top of both corners on Brown. This also sets up a fence of five defenders who can come downhill not only on Bell’s runs, but on the underneath passes that I’m betting the Steelers attack with. This strategy relies heavily on Patrick Chung’s ability both as a tough run stopper but an effective cover man. There’s also some flexibility to put McCourty up close to the LOS as he often did against Houston.
Another thing the zone coverage does is it floods the flat with defenders who can tackle Antonio Brown after the catch. If the Patriots play their usual sound fundamental game, with good tackling and no runs-after-catch that go 30-plus, the Steelers should struggle to maintain their offensive output.
If I was Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator my bread and butter would be to attack the Patriots defense underneath with Bell and Brown. There was plenty of talk on the Sports Hub yesterday that the Patriots can’t matchup covering running backs in the passing game, well Cover 2 is just the answer to that. If that’s how the game unfolds it will all come down to tackling, which we know the Patriots are almost always excellent at. What we’d want to see if Bell catching the pass then getting blasted by the zone defenders across the line.
If I was Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator I’d scheme to attack the middle of the offensive line. The critical component is getting Brady off his game early, at least planting a seed of doubt. The Patriots are unfazed if they have to punt a couple times early on in the game. Really, as Mike Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race to Belichick, for him to find out how you’re going to play the game. Once they figure it out they’re going to move the ball. The Steelers must vary their approach on each drive, including going to something totally different after halftime before going back to what was working in the first half. Eric Mangini laid it all out here and it’s the only way to stop Tom Brady.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ4oXvjNQ_w&t=1s
Adam Schefter mentioned that Chip Kelly was meeting with Belichick this week. Interesting move and of course I’d be more than find having Kelly join the staff for a season in a consultant type role. Let’s face it, a year with the Pats can do just about any coaches career good. How would it work now that Josh McDaniels is staying? That’s what’s unclear. By now McDaniels, Brady and the offense have their relationships down pat. Still, a fresh innovative voice like Kelly’s is what’s needed to stay ahead of the curve and that’s always what the Patriots are trying to do. Could it mean the return to more rapid no huddle? It would seem so.
The flu has been going around the Steelers locker room this week which sucks for them. I’m reminded of the 2006 AFCCG when the Patriots had a similar epidemic prior to playing in the dome of Indy. The Pats still came out strong but were totally useless in the second half, getting totally dominated. Have to wonder how the Steelers’ energy levels will be as the game drags on into the fourth quarter, especially as temperatures drop in Foxborough.
Lastly, Tedy Bruschi will be the honorary captain tomorrow night, and the Pats are 8-0 in games where they’ve honored Bru. I’ve been saying all week this feels like a throwback matchup and which better throwback player to have lead the charge? I still think it’s amazing that Bruschi’s “How do we feel about… Awww yeah!” team chant is still in effect, now with Matthew Slater usually leading the cheer. How many teams still use something like that eight years after a player retired? Funny little tidbit from Patriots dynasty history.

Patriots Gameplan: AFCCG vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

January 20, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The conference championships are the best football games of the season. It’s a real football environment in front of a team’s real fans, and it’s often played in the rain and cold, at least here in New England. It’s hard to put the Patriots eleventh trip to this game in perspective. I certainly don’t take it for granted, even after going to the last five-straight of them.

It’s amazing that the Patriots and Steelers haven’t met since 2004’s AFC Championship, a game that had plenty of narratives in just the fourth season of Belichick and Brady. The Steelers had been the team to defeat the Pats and end their 21-game winning streak, and New England got a chance to avenge that loss and they did, in surprisingly easy fashion against rookie Ben Roethlisberger.

Now, 12 years later, they meet again to battle for a chance to play in Super Bowl 51. With Peyton Manning retired, there simply isn’t another opponent that connects to the original dynasty years quite like the Steelers do, at least in the AFC.

This will be an old school matchup in more ways than one. These are two physical teams, with good quarterbacks and a number of weapons that can score early and often.

Here’s the Patriots gameplan to get through the Steelers and raise the Lamar Hunt Trophy for the seventh time under Bill and Tom, ninth time overall. Wow, did I just write that? What a run this has been, and now it’s time to take it to the highest level of all time.

Which Hoodie Should Bill Belichick Wear in the AFC Championship?

January 19, 2017 by Mike Dussault

It’s that time of the week again, when I take a look at the history of the game and the opponent and try to figure out what Bill Belichick should wear.

Last week, Belichick went against my prediction, which was admittedly flawed, going with the 2016 Blue Hoodie and he didn’t cut anything off of it. On the season, Belichick was .5-0 in the 2016 Blue Hoodie, wearing it for just the first half of the Week 16 matchup against the Jets.

Should he stick with that Blue Hoodie or change gears in the AFC Championship? And what’s he worn against the Steelers in AFC Championships past? There’s a ton of data to digest, let’s dive in!

Breaking Down Tom Brady’s Conference Championship Struggles

January 18, 2017 by Mike Dussault

The conference championship is the best football game of the year. It lacks the exhibition feel of the Super Bowl, is often out in miserable elements and feels as close to “real” football as we can get these days. Yet somehow it hasn’t always been Tom Brady’s best game.

The Patriots have played in 10 AFC Championship games since 2001 and will set a record with their sixth-straight on Sunday. They won six of those 10, but have lost three of their last four. Tom Brady‘s had his share of struggles, which is of course somewhat understandable since you’re usually playing the best team in your conference, and often one that is familiar with you.

Here’s the breakdown of Brady’s stats in the AFC Championship.

Brady’s career completion percentage is 63.8 percent, which drops to 61.3 percent in the AFC Championship. His career QB rating is 97.2, which drops off a cliff to 80.7 in the AFC Championship.

But again, each game is unique, so let’s take a quick look at why Brady could be due for a bounceback this Sunday.