Mike Dussault

Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 at Buffalo Bills

October 26, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The 5-2 Patriots are on the road again, visiting AFC East “rival” Buffalo who sit at 2-5. The Bills will be without rookie quarterback Josh Allen, meaning that veteran Derek Anderson will start against the Pats for the first time since he and the Browns actually hung tougher-than-expected way back when against the 2007 Patriots.

Despite their record, the Bills defense isn’t a total disaster, ranking 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the pass. The problem is that Buffalo has 12 turnovers in their last four games and that will kill any team. Their offense is ranked 32nd overall and 32nd passing and very well could be the worst in the league, and that was before Anderson had to start. There’s been plenty of times to wonder if the Bills could knock off the Pats over the years, and just a couple times they actually did, but this doesn’t appear on paper to be one of them.

As for the Patriots, they’ve won four in a row but given up 102 points in those four wins. The Bills’ inept offense is just what the Patriots defense needs, though in reality, they’re better than the points allowed might indicate. The offense though was really starting to click, just as Sony Michel was lost to a not-as-bad-as-it-looked injury that will have him miss at least this one game. The Pats look like they’ll roll with Kenjon Barner and James White as their only two backs, which is a little concerning, especially if it puts added pressure on the valuable White.

What do the Pats have to do to get to the halfway point of the season with a strong 6-2 record and even their road record at 2-2? Here’s the gameplan!

Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

October 24, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

October 23, 2018 by Mike Dussault

If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

Buy and sell New England Patriots tickets and other NFL tickets on StubHub!

Pats Posits: Patriots Win a Weird One in Chicago

October 21, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots needed to stop a Hail Mary at the one-yard line to hang on to a 38-31 win over the Chicago Bears after one of the most bizarre games in recent memory. Boiled down to its essence this was a game of good — two impressive interceptions and two special teams touchdowns — and bad — multiple long Mitch Trubisky runs and multiple penalties/giveaway.

The Bears were better than the Patriots on third down. They were better in the red zone. They had fewer penalties. They had more yards. But what they didn’t have in the end were more points and that’s why the Patriots are now 5-2 as they approach the midway point of the season.

Perhaps the biggest headline was the injury to Sony Michel, whom I’ve been harping on as perhaps the key piece of the offense. Michel’s leg was twisted around as he fumbled early in the game and had to be carted off. Of everything we take from this game, that injury might be the only significant piece that affects the Pats long term.

Overall this is the third disappointing performance on the road of 2018 but it was the first win, so that has to count for something. What else can we read into for the big picture beside the potential Michel injury? Here are the Posits.

Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs Chicago Bears

October 19, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The 4-2 Patriots are back on the road this weekend, traveling to Chicago to take on the 3-2 Bears. Bears head coach Matt Nagy is an Andy Reid disciple which could give Patriots fans a bit of a reason to worry. Nagy was the offensive coordinator for last year’s Chiefs team that tore the Pats a new one in the season opener.

Second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky has made solid strides with 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions in leading the Bears to wins over Seahawks, Cardinals and Buccaneers before an overtime loss to the Dolphins last week. The offense is 10th in points and 4th on third down. But it’s the defense that is the more impressive side of the ball where the Bears are 4th in points against and 12th on third down.

They’re led by Khalil Mack, who will be trying to overcome an ankle injury that will limit him in this one (hopefully). The Bears defense is fast, featuring a similar package to what the Patriots’ defense often runs with two down linemen and four standing linebackers who can all run. The Bears have the number one defense in Football Outsiders.

The Pats are winless on the road this season and will be looking to get on track after having lost just once on the road in the 2016 and 2017 seasons. The Bears should provide a good challenge and have the right kind of schemes to attack the Patriots’ weaknesses.

What do the Pats have to do to move to 5-2? Here’s the gameplan.

Foxboro & Friends Episode #3: Pats-Chiefs Recap

October 18, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Here’s the latest from me and your old pal Fitzy, breaking down Pats-Chiefs, this unprecedented Boston sports run and much, much more!

Patriots Film Review: Four Bad Plays

October 16, 2018 by Mike Dussault

As I wrote in my Posits, 28 of Kansas City’s second-half points came directly as a result of four bad Patriots plays. Overall, the Patriots did a pretty solid job for most of the night containing what is one of the best offenses in the NFL. An offense that on paper looked like it should have its way with a defense that has had second-level athleticism problems for a couple seasons now.

But overall the Patriots overcame those shortcomings with great downfield coverage and consistent disruption that muddied Patrick Mahomes‘ reads and threw his timing off. Having done these film reviews for going on five years now, I’ve had a close eye on the defense and this week’s film review only reinforced for me that I just like this defense a lot better than any of the recent editions.

I don’t want to put all the blame on Matt Patricia but things just simply look more coordinated between the front and bad. The pressure is better without heavy blitzing and the secondary seems almost always in sync. Maybe they’re just thinking less and executing faster? It looks that way to me, especially in these last three games despite some problem plays.

That said, and I hate to focus on the negative, but here’s a look at those four plays — two defensive, one offensive and one special teams that marred the Patriots victory and ultimately made it a last possession game when it didn’t even really have to be. Not to say the Pats were that much clearly better than the Chiefs, but these were the anomalies to near-perfect gameplan execution.