James Conway

Maybe it’s because I just had a kid, maybe it’s because my dog just pooped all over said-kid’s alphabet mat, but I feel like we need to define the ABCs of 2016 New England Patriots camp.

Amendola’s spot in the offense (like all spots) will be an open competition. His cap hit is now as low as can go and he certainly is uber talented going up and getting the ball. But he’s the Pats’ Montgomery Burns out there: a stiff breeze might shatter his hip (I know, tough talk from a guy like me who can’t jog without pulling a hamstring). Anyway, it will be interesting to see him in an open competition with Washington and Martin. Hated the Martin in motion crossing routes last season, but like his potential.

Big Back: we’ve been down this road before, but that might mean it’s really important. Related B’s: Blount, Bolden or Brown, I’m all about the B-B-Backs of the running variety. Bolden is a core-four special teamer and is serviceable in a pinch, also doesn’t fumble the ball, so I think he stays (but maybe we’re now overvaluing special teams contributions), but Brown and Blount seem to be competing for one spot. I’m leaning Blount, but Brown is a talented back who could excel in the right offense. I’d expect Dion Lewis to be the primary back in a rotating backfield, so this may not be as big of a deal as I think it is, but they may decide to bring him along slowly, in which case, it’s a real Big deal.

Also Buy Mike’s preview. It’s $4, it is excellent! Covers the entire roster and, no, I do not have a gun to my head as I say this, it’s really, really GD good.

Competition. Total cheat with such a generic C, but this roster is extremely deep and camp is going to decide a lot of the 53. RB (see: ‘B’), swing tackle, WR, CBs, OG, DT and most especially LB. Special teams participation could be the impetus for a lot of surprising cuts, but I think the Center competition (there’s a C!) is worth watching. Stork vs. Andrews, both are competent, both are good at sight adjustments. Is there one that works best with “il Grappa” (new way better nickname alert!)? Is there one that can play well enough to make the other expendable? I think, yes.

Defensive front: Don’t expect much downward trend from a defense that hovered around the top-10 of DVOA all year. Adding Long with Sheard, Valentine, Brown, Branch and Pot Roast (Will address Nink later) this will be a good front-7. They are a veteran, disciplined front line that will not miss gap assignments. Are they slower on the edges without Chandler Jones? Maybe, in the passing game, but the run D should be stout. Will be interesting to see how teams attack to the outside and how Malcom Brown’s 2nd year leap goes.

Edelman is Elite, that’s it, full stop!

Fans Frustration: Bill Simmons noted (9:56 min. mark) that Brady didn’t thank the diehard fans who backed him during Deflategate, I know he wants to get past it for the team. But fans have been defending the wall for a year and a half, alienating friends and family because, well, because we’re insane. I expect the team to acknowledge this with some TB12 armband on every player’s sleeve or something to at least show the fans how much they and Brady are appreciated. But I’d love a real acknowledgement from Tommy that the NFL screwed the pooch and the fans are the best in the world, because we are. Even if some of us got a little bent out of shape.

Gronk, Manimal. The obvious answer was Garoppolo, but this is 2016 and no one ever goes obvious. I’m sticking with Robert “Danger (to himself and others)” Gronkowski. Bennett’s getting the pub, but we’ve been spoiled by the most productive career for a TE ever to start a career. With health being a key: pencil him in for 65-80 Recs, 1,200 yards, 12 TDs.  Right between the butt cheeks y’all.

Hogan, Chris: An undervalued pick-up, who will appear overrated until the offense is churning behind TB-12 (wk. 6 or 7). Hogan is a bigger version of Edelman and like Edelman, he has position versatility: he can play the X on the outside or the Z in the slot. This receiving corp is extremely interesting with Edelman, Amendola, Hogan, Martin, Bennett and Gronk who can all play multiple spots. It’s possible Hogan crowds out Amendola and finds room on the roster for Washington or Martin. I hope that the Hogan drops don’t prevent he and the QBs from developing chemistry.

Interior Lineman: A big part of the problem last year was tackle play, but with the two starters back, the interior will be an area to watch. Kline, Jackson, Shaq Mason, Thuney, Stork, Andrews will be competing hard for spots on this team. Also what the hell do we get out of–

Jonathan Cooper. Pats gave up Chandler for this former first round pick. Is he worth anything at this point? If he is, we all assume Scar will get the most out of him, but after seasons of decline is it already too late?

Kraft, Jonathan and Robert: How can they get Goodell away from the NFL? It needs to happen. Like years ago. The league has begun to publically diminish his role, but is there anyway Goodell will let his grip off this league. His tenure has been an unmitigated disaster not just for Tom Brady, but for everyone who doesn’t want former players in their 30s and 40s killing themselves to preserve their brains for research. (Seriously, we’ve gotten to a bad place when players are depressed and suicidal enough to kill themselves and leave their families, but rational enough to say I don’t want this to happen to someone else, I’ll donate my brain to science!!!) And Goodell backed out of the study trying to determine CTE before people die. He came in as a pinch runner and thought he had hit a triple. The Krafts need to build a coalition that realizes the future of the league is without Goodell and without PTSD and CTE, a symptom of military service in war zones. All right, sorry about that. Training CAMP!!! WOOHOO!!!

Linebacker depth: Forget the offensive line, this is by far the biggest area of concern on the team. Collins and Hightower are all pro (and Nink, more below), Shea McClellin is interesting as a depth option, but I wonder if a trade for a functional I-LB might be in the offing. What this really means is Hightower is in the same position as McCourty after Revis left, very high leverage. I hope the Pats capitulate because they’re sort of SOL otherwise. Behind those four are more unproven lbs than comprise the Ryan brothers. (Because their fat losers, I don’t care if lap bands have been introduced!).

Martellus: The Black Unicorn is going to transform this offense as much as any player other than whoever the starting Quarterback is. How does he fit in? My bet is perfectly. Also he will really strongly enhance the running attack.

Ninkovich entering the final season of his contract now finds himself working with the linebackers. He’s a versatile player, has worked there before and should fit in, but this really points out the Patriots lack of depth in the middle of their defense. Color me, super flapping concerned.

Offense: In the early stages, we’ll see a conservative offense, however when defenses start packing the line, expecting run or selling blitz to try to rattle “il Grappa” (It’s a delicious Italian brandy), I can see McDaniels with some built-in alternatives: Quick slants, hits to the flat, Edelman’s speedy fake the inside slant and out… and a few play-action chances downfield on the seams for Gronk or Bennett. Also wonder if Martin’s silly motion, crossing action actually opens things up a bit drawing LB help. I’m fascinated to see this play out. All I know is it is going to be moving at light speed and that might not be good for the young QB.

Parity: will there be any competition in the AFC East? I hope not, but at some point the dam has to break and 4 games without the GOAT may be the most opportune time. Maybe this is the year for the Fins? Maybe? Bills? Maybe? Maybe the Jets, maybe? None of it feels right, but Maybe.

Quick twitch: this is the year of the juketacular New England Offensive player. Edelman, Hogan, Amendola, Lewis… these dudes juke for a living. Hopefully the field is littered with laundry from opposing defenses and not ACLs.

Also QB: With Brady being away from the facility for the first 4 weeks of the regular season, do the Pats turn the reins over to him the moment he’s back? (Yes.) Is there going to be some lag in terms of missing that time? (Probably, who knows.) This is as confusing a time to be a Pats fan as ever. Usually at this time, we’re penciling in the bye (people say this too much, but it’s true). This year, it’s a total toss up. Heckuva job, Rog!

Roster: The only “advantage” of not having your best player for the first 4 weeks of the season is the roster size is essentially 55 players (along with Ebner). Belichick and Caserio will have a chance to evaluate talent and maximize their roster well into the season, unlike the other stupid teams with their stupid starting QBs who haven’t been suspended for acts of nature. (I’m still working it out.)

Scar. This might be the biggest 2016 FA acquisition Belichick made. Line is where championships are won and lost. Wish he’d been here last year.

Tackle: Solder, how does he come back from his injury. Whether or not it’s seamless, I expect to see him tested pretty early with his old practice buddy, Chandler. Sea Bass is there, but where do we go from there? Not Cannon or Fleming. (More on Waddle in a bit)

Undrafted Free Agents: This may be the year we don’t see a UFA make the team because the depth on the roster is really good: Bryce Williams, TE, Steve Scheu, TE, DJ Foster, RB, Woodrow Hamilton, DT, CJ Johnson, LB, V’Angelo Bently, CB, Cre’Von Leblanc, CB, Jonathan Jones, CB… head the list. We’re all hoping DJ Foster lights it up, but these guys may all have the practice squad as their ceiling. Also Cre’Von Leblanc has the best name in the NFL, book it.

Veteran WRs: Martin and Washington. Can the Patriots get something out of these guys? Martin reminds me of Jeff Green on the Celtics, he has all the physical tools, but somehow that doesn’t translate in games. Washington is a guy in the last chapters of a pretty stellar career, he has good straight-line speed and if the QB is given time, he thrives at getting open in the deepest quadrant of the field. He’s a guy that makes 40-yard passing plays look routine.

Waddle, LaAdrian: Can he be a viable replacement for Solder or Vollmer if they go down? We saw what happened last year and a repeat is in the offing unless they’ve found their fit at Swing Tackle. Cannon is much maligned and with good reason, Waddle only gave us a glimpse last year, but could hold up if Solder or Vollmer miss a few weeks.

X-Factor: 3 skill position players at 3 separate offensive positions: Lewis, Bennett, Hogan all have the potential to make this offense a juggernaut. We don’t know how things will shake out with il Grappa (this feels right), but these guys will allow the offense to bust up any attempt of a defense to try to play straight. Expect defensive blitzes to be areas where these X-factors excel.

whY does Tom Brady have to be away from the team’s facilities for the first 4 weeks of the season??!! No contact with coaches? I think this is a bigger kick in the tip than the suspension. Do they think he might sneak around deflating footballs? There are so many aspects of this punishment that are hard to take but this is like the stupid cherry on top. (I’m tapped out, this is the season of vengeance, Brady will serve and destroy.)

Z-receiver spot: the Patriots currently have a versatile group who can play outside and inside and this should allow them to move Hogan, Edelman, Amendola and Martin around formations, which should allow the QB to further identify the defensive match-ups. Edelman and Gronk should draw the top CBs in man to man and being able to move them around should help identify exploitable match-ups.

This is a great time to be a Pats fan and the interesting thing is we don’t know what will happen! On to Training Camp!