Today is Tom Brady‘s 40th birthday and it also marks the end of then first week of training camp. While I don’t really have any big Brady celebration plans (because your favorite QB turning 40 isn’t exactly something to celebrate), it’s a good time to take a quick reset on what we’ve learned and how the roster is flushing out.
The headline of week one was Rob Ninkovich‘s retirement, and though that opens up a roster spot, there are still plenty of bubble guys who will be in the fight of their lives to make the team.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the bubble players who have emerged in the first week and weigh their chances of making the roster.
First, here’s another rough attempt at a 53-man roster. This is nothing official yet, I’ll do a full breakdown of a roster projection after the first preseason game next week, but it’s a good place to jump off.
QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, J.White, R.Burkhead, J.Develin
WR (6) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, B.Cooks, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola, M.Slater
TE (2) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, C.Fleming, T.Garcia
DE (5) T.Flowers, G.Grissom, D.Rivers, D.Wise, K.Ealy
DT (4) M.Brown, A.Branch, L.Guy, V.Valentine
ILB(3) D.Hightower, D.Harris, E.Roberts
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, S.McClellin, J.Freeny
CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C.Jones
SS (4) P.Chung, N.Ebner, B.King, J.Richards
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patsfans.com/patspicker
The hardests cut here were:
- No third tight end: I like Lengel a little more than O’Shaughnessy but if Gronk and Allen are healthy and they have their full compliment of WRs along with a heavy OL squad I don’t see how much value the third tight end really brings. Of course this changes quickly if Gronk or Allen get hurt, but if you can pull Lengel off a practice squad last year you could probably do the same thing this year.
- Austin Carr: I think it’s going to take a significant injury to a receiver for Carr to sneak on the roster. He looks like he fits but I also don’t think it would be that tough to get him to the practice squad.
- Brandon Bolden: Bolden’s a tough one, he’s a valued veteran, a special teams stud and can play running back even if he’s far less dynamic than the other four backs. I just think Burkhead is the kind of player who takes Bolden’s spot, offering all the special teams ability and better running back ability. Still, he’s a tough cut.
- Harvey Langi: Langi’s gotten plenty of looks in camp, but at the end of the day is he really going to step in and play on defense? Not unless there are significant injuries. But again, practice squad seems pretty easy here.
- Justin Coleman: I’ve always liked Coleman, but Jonathan Jones‘ emergence at nickel has bumped Coleman down the depth chart. He might be my most unfavorite cut, because the rest can be kept or easily replaced. Coleman can play and corners almost always get hurt so I think we’re gonna need him at some point.
Also note that I have no undrafted rookie making the team and that’s never happened in recent history. Kenny Moore would be in the mix here with Langi, but if Coleman can’t make the team how could Moore?
What about the hardest roster additions? You know, the guys I put on the team who I could see actually getting (somewhat surprisingly) cut?
- Kony Ealy: Yes it would appear with Ninkovich retired that the last thing the Pats can do is cut a defensive end they traded for this offseason, but that would be so them, especially if Ealy just isn’t clicking. There’s something going on with him, from starting out missing practice to getting reduced snaps. Hard to tell what exactly the deal is, but Ealy is certainly someone to focus on in the coming weeks. He might be much more on the bubble than anyone would’ve expected.
- Jonathan Freeny: Freeny’s got good size and Belichick seems to love him, but I just don’t see it. I put him on the roster not because I think he’s good enough, but because he’s one of those great off-field, average on-field guys who seem to stick in New England far longer than they might elsewhere.
- Cameron Fleming: I’d prefer Tony Garcia to take the swing role from Fleming but Garcia’s going to need at least a full year to develop. Fleming hasn’t had a great camp but he can play both sides and get the job done for another year.
- Jordan Richards: I was ready to cut him this summer but he’s had a good camp so far so he’s sticking. With Harmon missing, Richards is the next man up. Maybe he’s making a leap? They could certainly use him.
- Shea McClellin: Like with Freeny I’m not the biggest McClellan fan, but at this point, with the number of things he does I think he’s here to stay for this season. Maybe he makes a leap in his second year here too? It did take Nink a couple years to get going so maybe we owe McClellan another season to get going.
