5 Matchups to Define Super Bowl 53

The Patriots have no shortage of old Super Bowl matchups to go back and consider when looking at the Los Angeles Rams and what might make the difference in Super Bowl 53.

Eight Super Bowls, all of which really could’ve gone either way. But here the Pats are at 5-3 in those tight games. What a stressful rollercoaster they’ve all been!

Many are hoping that this one won’t take another year off their lives, but really, the Patriots gift to the NFL has been this thrilling games that are a far departure from some of the blowouts of the 80’s and 90’s.

Since 2000, the average margin of victory in a Patriots Super Bowl? 4.25 points. The other 10 they didn’t play in? 15.3 including blowouts of 35 (2013, Hi Peyton), and 27 (twice, 2000 and 2002). Just three of those 10 were a single digit margin of victory.

No one will cry for us, but that kind stress has added up over the years and probably why I feel pre-nauseous already. I can’t help but assume this one will be close too and that it will be decided in five key matchups.

1. Donald & Suh vs. Pats OL

There’s simply no more effective pass rush than one that comes up the middle and the Rams have two of the absolute best of the last decade and you can’t double both of them. The key element from the Pats losses to the Giants in 2007 and 2011 was a relentless rush, often led up the middle by Justin Tuck in both cases. But those Patriots didn’t have the running game that these Patriots do and that’s why Donald and Suh could be forced out of simply hunting Brady.

2. Gurley & Anderson vs. Pats Run Defense

Gurley was MIA against the Saints but I’m planning for him like he’s the offensive MVP candidate that he was this year. C.J. Anderson has been a capable replacement and is a player I always thought could fit the Pats. I think stopping the run game is everything to this defensive gameplan. The Pats have given up 60 yards rushing through two tough playoff games, that says a lot about how they’re playing. Stop the run and force Goff to beat you with his 3rd, 4th and 5th receivers is the name of the game.

3. Gilmore vs. Woods

There are a couple different ways the matchups could go but I would think think the differences between Cooks and Woods makes the smart move to stick Gilmore on Woods and try to totally eliminate him. Cooks certainly has the explosive ability but just as a I hated the chuck-it-up-to-Brandin offense last season, it’s what I’d love to reduce the Rams offense to even if they hit one or two of them. Gilmore had a fantastic season but this is one game and he’s had some weird blown plays this year. One of those in this game will be magnified. Keep him out of zone coverage and on Woods’ hip at all times.

4. Sony Michel vs 28th DVOA Run Defense

For all the flashy pieces on the Rams defense their run defense ranked 28th in Football Outsiders. Their defensive line against the run ranked 21st. The gave up more than 110 rushing yards seven times, losing four. Their two closest wins of the season against the Seahawks saw them give up 463 rushing yards. But it’s less about what running the ball means for the Rams defense and more what it means for the Pats’ offense, as it opens all avenues of attack.

5. Tom Brady vs. All Time

The close Super Bowl games have been both a testament to a Patriots team that doesn’t always come out of the gate firing like they should, but also how despite those slow starts Tom Brady has always kept the Patriots in every game. They had leads in the 4th quarter of each game they lost. There’s little doubt Brady will only add to his legend in this game, even if the Pats come up short. But if Berserker Brady that played the last two games shows up in Atlanta, Pats fans might finally get the stress-free win they’ve been dreaming about.

TURNOVERS

Turnovers isn’t a matchup but it has to be mentioned as a critical element of the Super Bowl. In the Pats last eight Super Bowls they won the turnover margin just twice — 2001 (+3) and 2004 (+3). Since then it’s been zero (2003, 2007, 2017) or -1 (2014, 2016).

Throw out the 2001 and 2004 Super Bowls and the Patriots are -3 overall (5 giveaways, 3 takeaways). For a team with Tom Brady at quarterback and some of the most ballhawking defenses of the regular season, these numbers are extremely disappointing and a good window why the Super Bowl games have been uncharacteristic.

The Patriots defense had a bounceback year in turnovers, going from 24th in turnovers-per-drive to 7th. The AFC Divisional round was the 12th multiple-turnover game of the season, but the AFC Championship was just the third time all season the Pats didn’t get a takeaway.

The Rams force turnovers in bunches but they’re streaky. Five times they got three or more, nine times they had none or just one.

Playing safe with the ball matters more than any of these matchups, while taking the ball away will offset any matchup failures. Either way, turnovers will have a huge impact on this game.